Euro 2024

Bet Builder Tips: Fouls fancied in 5/1 best bet in Netherlands v England

Expect a low scoring, intense semi-final between the Netherlands and England. Jimmy The Punt has picked out a 5/1 Bet Builder.
Jimmy says fouls and a lack of goals the way to go for Netherlands vs England

Jimmy The Punt has picked out a 5/16.00 Bet Builder for England's Euro 2024 semi-final clash with the Netherlands.

Netherlands v England Superboost

England are in the semi-final of Euro 2024, and Betfair are offering up another SuperBoost on Wednesday!

Liverpool and Netherlands defender Virgil Van Dijk can now be backed to commit 1 or more fouls vs England at 1/1 - up from 1/3!

Virgil Van Dijk has committed more fouls than any other player at Euro 2024 (12), at an average of 2.4 per 90.

Indeed, he has made a foul in each of the Netherlands' five games at the tournament so far, and committed 2 or more in four of those - 2 v Poland, 1 v France, 3 v Austria, 4 v Romania, 2 v Turkey.

England (73) are the most fouled team at Euro 2024, whilst both Harry Kane (10) and Jude Bellingham (11) sit in the top five most fouled players at the tournament.

Football... Only Bettor Podcast - Netherlands v England Semi-Final tips - Listen here!

England are one game away from back-to-back Euro finals, despite failing to score at least two goals in 90 minutes this summer. Everything points towards a low scoring game in Dortmund between two evenly matched sides.

Leg 1: Under 2.5 goals

Recent history suggests Euro semi-finals can be especially low margin affairs.

Looking back from Euro 1996, when England lost to Germany on penalties, of the 14 games, nine have seen two or fewer goals, seven have ended all square and four have ended goalless.

Considering the sides involved here, under 2.5 goals has to feature in the bet builder.

England are yet to score more than one goal inside 90 minutes this summer across five games against Serbia, Denmark, Slovenia, Slovakia and Switzerland with this bet clicking in every single one of those games.

After a timid group stage, Oranje sparked into life in the knockouts putting five past Romania and Turkey. Although those were two impressive performances, I think the stalemate with France in the group stage is the more appropriate comparison.

Although Ronald Koeman's side were unlucky to have a goal disallowed, there was only one shot with an xG higher than 0.25 that evening, from either team. So, chances could be of a premium on Wednesday.

Leg 2: Virgil van Dijk 2+ fouls

England are the most fouled team in Euro 2024 bar none.

The Three Lions draw 14.6 a game, the next closest nation still in the competition is France with an average of 12.4.

It is hardly a surprise given the attacking talent at Gareth Southgate's disposal. England's starting quartet of Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden draw an average of seven fouls a game.

It makes the most sense to back one of the players to concede the most fouls in the tournament.

Only two players trump Virgil van Dijk's average of 2.4 fouls a game. Liverpool's centre back has committed at least two fouls in all bar one of his five appearances in Germany, racking up six in the knockout stages alone.

With Dumfries operating as a right winger in possession, the Dutch defence can look vulnerable in transition, which goes a little way to explaining van Dijk's foul play.

Leg 3: Nathan Ake 1+ fouls

Sticking along similar lines, Nathan Ake's price to commit just one foul boosts the bet builder very nicely.

It might raise a few eyebrows considering he has only averaged 0.4 fouls for club and country this season but his fouls average for Oranje drags that figure up significantly because Ronald Koeman is playing him at left back.

Well, it is sort of a hybrid role as the Dutch's backline is a three in possession but Ake's defensive output increases regardless.

The Man City man has averaged 1.2 tackles and committed three fouls, two of which coming against Turkey in Netherlands last game.

The real sweetener is his direct opponent; Bukayo Saka. He has completed the fifth most take ons (13) this summer and drawn three fouls in the two knockout games.

Now read the rest of our Euro 2024 content here!

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