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Southgate's final tournament push
One-hundred-and-three days separate England's World Cup exit to France and the start of their Euro qualifying campaign and in that period some players have succumbed to poor form while others have hit a rich vein of the stuff, finding another level to what they were producing prior to Christmas.
Phil Foden is a prime example of the latter, his recent renaissance a source of great encouragement while Harry Maguire's lack of minutes for Manchester United continues to concern.
Before we get to the output of individuals however, we need to first figure out who Gareth Southgate has in mind for Naples, and who might be held back for Ukraine at Wembley this Sunday.
Predicted line-ups
Typically in qualifying double-headers Southgate likes to utilize the full depth of his squad, even at times playing his strongest XI in one game and a second string in the other. That though is usually a radical approach reserved for the San Marinos and Albanias of this world.
With England being pitched straight into their most difficult fixture in Group C, away to Italy, followed by a must-win home test against their only serious threat to finishing in the top two it is highly unlikely we will see that strategy here.
Instead, a similar selection process to last September should be anticipated.
Then, a Nations League trip to Milan preceded the hosting of Germany and the England boss went full strength in both, making only two changes to facilitate a different set-up at the back against Die Mannschaft.
Moreover, Southgate's decision to not replace either Mason Mount or Marcus Rashford - two late withdrawals due to injuries - is another indicator that he doesn't intend to make sweeping changes.
This leads us to believe that Pickford, Stones, Maguire, Shaw, Rice, Bellingham, Foden, Saka and Kane will all feature prominently in both games.
The biggest uncertainty resides at right-back while Henderson, Grealish and Toney - mainly due to Rashford's absence - will likely get game-time from the bench.
Conceivably, Ramsdale, Guehi, Gallagher, and even the fit-and-firing-again Maddison may not get a sniff.
Which lions are roaring?
Phil Foden's campaign was in serious danger of sliding into mediocrity, with a series of underwhelming displays leading to Pep Guardiola 'resting' him for four games running.
The 22-year-old's response has been impressive indeed, returning full of tricks and endeavour.
His stats may not be sensational of late but he has more than passed the eye-test and should he transfer that to an England jersey - which has admittedly not always been the case - then Bonucci and co are in for a torrid evening.
Across to the right, Bukayo Saka is enjoying a season of seasons, accruing 22 goal involvements in 28 Premier League outings.
Why win less?
His 1.6 successful dribbles per 90 is perhaps to be expected given his direct style of wing-play but 2.2 key passes per game highlights his immeasurable importance to Arsenal's unexpected title charge.
In between these pair, Harry Kane is, as ever, England's main man and furthermore he is a man reborn with that tired old trope about him playing too deep thankfully consigned to the past.
This season 21 goals have been mined in the league from 2.72 shots per 90 while for his country he remains a potent force, with six direct goal involvements in his last six.
Still, for what it's worth, Kane has yet to score against Italy in four attempts.
For Southgate to have all three of his attacking talents in fine fettle bodes extremely well because England have only conceded four goals in their last five meetings with the Azzurri. If similar fortitude can be displayed again at the back then one of these trio could make the difference.
Best of the rest
The England boss should also count his blessings that he has two full-backs in pristine form, Luke Shaw being brilliant across February and March and Kieran Trippier undoubtedly the best performing right-back in the top-flight this term.
In previous years, Shaw has performed well for his country despite struggling for club form so it will be interesting to see how impactful he is, now full of confidence.
As for Trippier, only Kevin De Bruyne has created more chances while defensively he makes up a fifth of the Premier League's most miserly back-line.
In midfield meanwhile, England's Rolls Royce Jude Bellingham has been widely credited by the German press for being the driving force behind Borussia Dortmund's sublime form post-Christmas.
Nine wins and a draw in 2023 has taken Die Schwarzgelben to the summit.
As Max Liu points out, England are 6/1 to win Euro 2024 before a ball has been kicked in qualifying. A big factor in those odds is the teenager's quantum leap to superstardom.
Past informs the present
Looking beyond individuals we find a fixture that has ended all-square four times in the last five meetings, with each of those five clashes producing under 2.5 goals.
Cliché alert but England and Italy do tend to cancel the other out and the Three Lions can consider themselves unfortunate to have such a poor record against the Azzurri - last winning a competitive game way back in 1997 - given how close the contests are.
Their two most recent encounters, both last year, has them neck-and-neck in the stats for shots undertaken, corners and cards.
When each side is viewed separately however, disparities arise.
In their last ten games - mostly against some serious good opposition - England boast an impressive 5.1 shots on target per 90. T
hey have also amassed seven corners per game compared to Italy's 4.7 while on the disciplinary front Southgate's men have averaged a saintly 0.7 cautions.
Remem