Italy v England: Go low on goals in Naples but big with 17/1 Bet Builder

• Italy haven't lost a home Euro qualifier since 1999

• The last five meetings have all gone under 2.5 goals

• Kane could make England history this week

• Back a big 17/1 Bet Builder on Bellingham & Maguire

• Bet £5 on a Bet Builder on this game & get a free £5 Bet Builder

Italy enjoying long Euros winning run

After missing out on the World Cup, Roberto Mancini's Italy will not want to make the same mistake again as they start the defence of their European title against the side they beat at Wembley just 20 months or so ago.

Euro qualifying has been a doddle for the Azzurri of late as they haven't lost a home qualifier in this competition since 1999 and haven't lost one anywhere since 2006, going 40 games unbeaten including winning the last 14 on the spin.

This is the first time the two sides have met in Euro qualifying, but the Italians have the upper hand in recent meetings, most notably their Euro 2020 final success but they also knocked England out of Euro 2012 on penalties and haven't lost a game in a major tournament or qualifying against them since 1977.

England missing red-hot Rashford

Gareth Southgate was bemoaning his lack of options even before Marcus Rashford, Mason Mount and Nick Pope all pulled out of the squad - although Rashford was the only one in with a chance of starting in Naples.

The Three Lions have also had dominant Euro qualifying campaigns recently - winning 17 of 18, scoring 67 goals and conceding just seven in those victories, but this is a huge step up from their usual challenges.

Without a win in six trips to Italy, England's last away win was a friendly success in 1961, which underlines the size of the task at hand if Southgate is to become just the third England manager to oversee 50 wins.

Southgate is on the verge of joining Sir Alf Ramsey and Walter Winterbottom in the half-century club of wins but of more immediate interest to him will be starting again after the disappointment of their World Cup exit against France in their last game.

Not many goals fancied in Naples

There'll be a firecracker of an atmosphere at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium in Naples on Thursday but despite that and Italy's fine home record in this and against England there's hardly anything between them in the market.

Italy are 17/10 with England 13/8 and going on recent meetings, and the fact this is the first game of the campaign, then the draw will be popular at 11/5.

If we're torn on the winners we're pretty sure that there won't be too many goals - it's just 13/20 that we have under 2.5 goals and you can see why as there was only one of them scored in two Nations League matches between them.

Throw in the fact it's the first game of qualifying and England are recovering from their World Cup exit, and that the last five meetings have gone under 2.5 goals then it seems a solid bet.

It's also reasonable enough to expect a slow start even with the expected atmosphere in Naples, so the 10/11 for a half-time draw appeals even as an outright bet, but also as a Bet Builder component.

Can Kane make England history?

Harry Kane is just one goal away from breaking Wayne Rooney's England record, but he's not yet scored against Italy in four games - that's his worst dry run against any country. If you think he's due a goal he's the 8/5 favourite as an anytime scorer.

Southgate certainly looks to have the better attacking options with Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish in good form, Ivan Toney getting his first call-up and James Maddison hoping to get a chance to impress after missing the World Cup.

Saka has 16 goals and 11 assists this season with Foden scoring 14 and setting up nine - and at 8/5 and 2/1 respectively they'd be top of your list in the goal or assist market.

Italy are missing a plethora of attacking options so Vincenzo Grifo looks their best option after scoring four goals and assisting three in just eight games for the Azzurri - he's just Evens for a goal involvement in Naples.

Back Maguire & Bellingham in Bet Builders

Goals may not be the best angle though if we're not expecting too many, but there should be plenty of tackles flying in and a price I love here is 9/4 on Harry Maguire giving away 2+ fouls in the game - something he's managed in three of his last four starts for Man Utd.

He gave away one foul in four of five games at the World Cup, and two fouls in two of those, so you can play it safe at 4/9 for 1+ foul to add to your Bet Builders or bank on the fiery atmosphere getting the better of him and play the multiple foul option.

With Betfair offering punters a free £5 Bet Builder if you place a £5 Bet Builder on this match, it's the perfect game to pick out some multiples.

Why not try this Bet Builder for Italy v England...

Back Maguire & Bellingham 2+ fouls & Bellingham 1+ shot on target

17/1

Jude Bellingham is fast becoming England's main man and if he starts here he should be heavily involved once again.

The 6/4 on him having a shot on target is worth taking as he's managed that in five of his last seven internationals.

He's also 6/5 for two fouls, which he's done in his last two England games.

And as a final value play, the 16/5 on a Reece James shot on target is worthy of your attention if he starts the game - as out wide could be a key area for both sides.

He had two shots in the Nations League game in Italy and should be heavily involved again if he plays down that right side with Saka. He's worth a small play if named in the starting XI.

Why win less?

If you are keen on Saka tonight, then why win less with the Betfair Exchange? Click the image below to back the Arsenal forward to score first!