Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Day Seven Stat Pack: Pedri can land shots punt, Sesko foul prices offer value

Pedri is overpriced to fire 2+ shots

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - unleashes his data and stats led analysis as England are one of the teams on show in day seven of Euro 2024. He is especially excited about a Spanish shot bet...

England Superboost

Don't fix what isn't broken they say, so Betfair are going again with the exact same Superboost selection in Denmark v England.

You can back Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham each to be fouled 1 or more times vs Denmark at 1/12.00, Superboosted up from 1/21.50!

The same selection won at a canter on MD1 vs Serbia, with Kane winning his first foul in the 55th minute to add to a couple that Bellingham had already won in the first half.

Indeed, Kane (6) and Bellingham (4) were fouled 10 times combined in the opening game, and will no doubt be targeted once again.

Heading into the Serbia match, the duo had been fouled 55 times between them in their last 15 England appearances, but their average has now risen to over 4 fouls won per game across their last 16 international caps.

Back the Superboost here!

Slovenia v Serbia (14:00) - Sesko in for some special treatment?

Benjamin Sesko is in line for a rough ride here and his fouls won possibilities are worth considering as an angle. He won four fouls against Denmark as his tricky style in the pocket did lead to panic in the Danish ranks. Strangely, his overall fouls won data is only tracking at 0.54 per game in the last three seasons domestically and was just as low in qualifying for this tournament. That could be different here with a target on his back as one of Europe's most outstanding young talents.

The Serbian midfield tasked with getting in his face were in rampant form when it came to making fouls against England. Nemanja Gudelj, Sasa Lukic, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Ivan Ilic (second half substitute) made 10 fouls between them as they tried to disrupt the flow of Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham. Sesko's price of winning two or more fouls at 7/24.50 with the Sportsbook looks overpriced.

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Euro 2024 today's best tips (featuring a special guest)...

Denmark v England (17:00) - Safety-first Southgate points to unders

I got lured into thinking Gareth Southgate may change his ways - and in his words "be bolder" - in this tournament with the array of attacking talent at his disposal. That may come in the knockouts but for the group stage anyway, England are going to be a defensively focused, controlled team that don't create much, sit on leads and rarely give up high probability chances. Each to their own.

Five of England's last nine group stages matches under Southgate's watch have fallen under the 1.5 goal line and the last two second games in their group stages have ended 0-0 after an opening night win, vs Scotland and USA. That could be a runner at a 8/19.00 with Denmark likely to snap a hand or two off for a point. But I think we can rely upon Southgate to implement his tournament strategy of playing for a clean sheet at all costs in this type of game so the 2/13.00 for under 1.5 is a great starting point for a bet.

Spain v Italy (20:00) - Pedri overpriced in shots market

Pedri is a frightening talent. And he impressed with his sharpness and creativity in Spain's opener, playing in a much more advanced role where he offers a link to Alvaro Morata and the dangerous wide men.

I think his shots prices look so generous based on this new positioning. Although he didn't register a shot v Croatia, he fired five shots across two pre-tournament friendlies and scored a brace against Northern Ireland.

Playing for a Spanish side that look set to entertain and score goals, his attacking contribution looks undervalued by the market. His anytime assist price is a runner at 9/25.50 - a bet which landed against Croatia - and the anytime goalscorer price at 6/17.00 should land at some point this tournament.

But I'll be keeping it simple by backing him to register two or more shots at a juicy 15/82.88 on the Sportsbook.

Now head to our Euro 2024 HUB for more day four content!

Follow Lewis' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.