Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Day Eight Stat Pack: How to profit from Hernandez v Dumfries battle

Denzel Dumfries
Will Denzel Dumfries be carded on Friday?

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - unleashes his data and stats led analysis as two old foes collide in France v Netherlands on an exciting day of action at Euro 2024...

Slovakia v Ukraine (14:00) - Sudakov set to shine

Betfair's podcaster and tipping supremo Mark O'Haire marked my card about Heorhii Sudakov ahead of Ukraine's opener. That lad has an eye for a player.

The Shakhtar Donetsk starlet stood out from the crowd in an otherwise timid performance from the Ukrainians in their defeat to Romania, making 19 passes in the final third - only the wasteful Mykhailo Mudryk made more - and registering four shots.

Despite his inexperience he played with great authority in the middle, demanding the ball under pressure and trying to get his team up the pitch. His overall shots data from qualifying at 1.48 per game underplays his willingness to make a difference in the final third. Domestically he works at an average of 2.84 shots per game and that kind of volume was mirrored in Ukraine's opener. This makes me want to back him to play a key role for Ukraine in a game where their tournament is on the line. The way to do this is to back his three or more shots line at 9/52.80 on the Sportsbook.

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Poland v Austria (17:00) - Danso can lure in Buska

Austria's price at the time of writing at 2.021/1 is surely going to come under pressure before kick-off. I was hopeful of seeing them implement their aggressive pressing game against France and they achieved it, putting on a performance that certainly makes them a player at this tournament. They will make life tough for every team and that's a dangerous trait in tournament football. If you're not on them yet to win this, best get on soon whilst the 85.084/1 is still available.

I'd be surprised if Poland can handle them.

Poland striker Adam Buksa is worth an interest in the fouls market. He goes at a per 90 rate of 1.79 fouls made for his club Antalyaspor and he certainly played with an aggressive presence in Poland's opener against Virgil van Dijk.

Poland didn't miss Robert Lewandowki. He may join him in attack for this one if fit, but it would be harsh to drop Buska, who opened the scoring against the Netherlands.

Here he's likely to face Austria centre-back Kevin Danso, who is a foul winning machine. It wasn't a surprise he won four fouls against France based on his numbers. He's drawn 37 fouls in his last 17 appearances. The prices are quite tight so it's not an official play for me but adding Buska's prices to any potential Bet Builders.

Netherlands v France (20:00) - Dumfries card & foul the way to play Hernandez tussle

Theo Hernandez isn't always the most reliable of full-backs when it comes to defending but his strengths lie in his ability going forward. And he looked in the form of his life in France's win over Austria, flying up and down the left wing to great effect, creating two chances for his teammates and completing every one of his nine passes in the final third. He was fouled twice in that encounter with his direct and speedy style a real weapon for the French.

His battle with Denziel Dumfries down that flank in this encounter could be explosive - these two have history from battles in Milan derbies over the years, including this season's fixture in April where both were sent-off. I'm interested in the fouls and yellow card markets on both players as sparks may just fly.

Dumfries has made 1.29 fouls per 90 over the past three seasons in Serie A and suffers 1.19 fouls per 90. In that time he's manage to draw 15 yellow cards off the opposition in 5,891 minutes - meaning he's getting a player booked every 392 minutes of action. A healthy rate.

Meanwhile, Hernandez works at a far greater ratio than that for drawing cards with 44 opposition carded for fouls on him in a sample size of 8,282 minutes. That's a card being drawn every 174 minutes. That's deadly. He's made just 0.85 fouls per 90 minutes in that period but his drawing fouls data is much healthier at 1.54.

There's plenty of ways to play this battle by combining fouls and cards using the Bet Builder but I'm going to keep this relatively simple and just back Dumfries to make two or more fouls and to be carded at 5/16.00.

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