Euro 2024 Final Stat Pack: Cucurella to foul Saka at 6/5 is the bet of the tournament

• Cucurella has made 10 fouls against Saka in the last four matches

• England's opposition has been shown more cards in nine of their last 11 matches

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Spain v England SuperBoost

England have made it to back-to-back European Championship finals and Betfair are offering up a SuperBoost to mark the occasion.

English football fans all know about Chelsea's Marc Cucurella, who has committed six fouls at Euro 2024 so far, and managing at least one offence in each of his five appearances at the tournament.

England (84) are the most fouled team in Germany, and boast Jude Bellingham (14) and Harry Kane (11) as two of the top four most fouled players in the competition.

He will also be most likely directly up against Arsenal's Bukayo Saka, who has won 10 fouls at the tournament so far, at 1.7 per 90, and, for whom he has previous with.

In both Arsenal v Chelsea meetings in the Premier League last season, Cucurella committed two fouls directly on Bukayo Saka in each game, and was involved in 10 fouls across the two matches (fouls won + fouls conceded).

Cucurella v Saka is a money-making match-up

We've managed to boast a profit of +4.8 at Euro 2024 through these stat-pack based tipping articles - it's disappointing to be honest. We were looking towards a very healthy return at halfway after Dan Ndoye netted for Switzerland against Germany, but profit stalled in the knockout stages and none of our big-price selections in the outright have fallen by the wayside.

We are going to have one last swing at the final to try and finish on a high, so I'm happy to play the profit we've made as England face their date with destiny in the Euro 2024 final.

I've had to wait to the very last game of 50 matches but this selection has to be up there as the best bet of the tournament.

I think the traders at Betfair must've had a good month because it's not often you see such glaringly obvious value offered up in a big game. To offer up 6/52.20 on the Betfair Sportsbook for Marc Cucurella to make a foul on Bukayo Saka is very ballsy in a market where you are likely to get a decent sized bet on. It's certainly worth 2.8 of my money in terms of stake size.

Saka is England out-ball when they look to switch the play and with Spain allowing Neco Williams to play high and not track back there are going to be so many opportunities for Saka to get one-on-one with Cucarella in this game.

We've got strong evidence that fouls will fly from their meetings in the Premier League. Cucurella has made 10 fouls against Saka in the last four matches where they've faced each other.

Cucurella does to try to fight fire with fire and doesn't defend that intelligently, making him a great player to follow in these kinds of markets. He's a very rash full-back who likes to snap into challenges. All he needs to do is make one foul on Saka for this bet to land - it's an incredible price, that I'd have it nearer 1/2.

There's no need to stop there on the Cucurella vs Saka frenzy as the Cucurella to foul Saka and Saka to foul Cucurella at 4/15.00 is also worth backing with confident stakes.

Saka has been fouled 10 times and the tournament and Cucurella 11 times so it could be a foul frenzy between those two in a high stakes game where the foul count is likely to be high. This particular bet would have landed in both Premier League meetings between Arsenal and Chelsea last season. Saka made 1.20 fouls per 90 last season so isn't just a punch bag - he likes to dish a bit out himself and his Spanish rival can be a tad theatrical under contact which helps in terms of fouls being awarded on him.

Tame Lions point to Spainish cards at 25/1 Bet Builder

One thing you can almost guarantee in the final is for England to keep their cool. Gareth Southgate's teams are very well behaved when it comes to racking up cards. He spoke about this in his press conference ahead of the Netherlands game. He said: "There's a right way to conduct yourself with officials - that's very important for the image of the game."

The numbers back that up at this tournament. When assessing the race for cards in all their six matches at this tournament, the opposition have been shown more in five of those encounters. It takes Southgate's record with his England team at the last two major tournaments to the opposition being shown more cards in nine of their last 11 matches.

That immediately makes the 11/82.38 for Spain to be showed more cards in 90 minutes a bet I'm happy to invest in.

It's worth chasing a longshot with this theory though as Alvaro Morata at 4/15.00 and Rodri 11/43.75 both look overpriced to pick up a card. Morata has looked very emotional at this tournament and is playing the role of the hardman amongst his younger peers. He's made 12 fouls in just five starts, picking up two cards along the way.

Meanwhile, Rodri will be on his guard up against Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden in central areas. The bigger the occasion, the more likely it is Rodri gets a card. Along with already being carded three times at this tournament, he was booked last season for Man City against Real Madrid and Liverpool whilst in the 22/23 season he was cautioned in the FA Cup final and in clashes with Arsenal and Liverpool.

Combine Morata and Rodri to be carded along with Spain to be shown most cards at 25/126.00.

Now read Opta's stats driven Netherlands v England piece here!