Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Day Eight Predictions: Back 3/1 Dumfries Card on the Betfair Exchange

Both Denzel Dumfries and Theo Hernandez were sent off when the pair last met in the Milan Derby, the former looks primed for a card on Friday.
Jimmy says expect cards down the Netherlands left side as two old foes renew their rivalry

Jimmy The Punt returns with his take on day eight of the Euros covering Slovakia vs England, Poland vs Austria and Netherlands vs France...

  • Ukraine could play into Slovakia's hands

  • Cards expected in Poland vs Austria

  • Old rivals renew unpleasantries in Netherlands vs France

Slovakia vs Ukraine

  • Friday, June 21, 14:00

After their heroics and fortune against Belgium, Slovakia only realistically needed a point to make it through to the knockouts.

The Falcons beat Belgium 1-0 in the opener but it is fair to say they were fortunate. Romelu Lukaku had two goals disallowed and missed a handful of clear cut chances.

Martin Dubravka won man of the match in Slovakia's goal, making five saves and preventing the Red Devils scoring despite creating an xG of 1.85.

Ukraine were thumped 3-0 in their opener with Romania and although that flattered the opposition, the Blue and Yellow were underwhelming.

Despite having 71% possession, Ukraine did not carve out a single 'big chance' and only generated an xG of 0.75 compared to Romania's 1.20.

The dynamic of this clash could not suit Slovakia better.

Sergiy Rebrov's side realistically needed to win because of their goal difference and the fact they still have Belgium to play. At some point Ukraine are going to have to commit, which plays right into the Falcons hands who are more than happy to sit deep, soak up possession and play on the counter.

Siding with Slovakia +0.5 on the asian handicap could be the play here.

Poland vs Austria

  • Friday, June 21, 17:00

I may have underestimated Poland.

It took them all of 14 minutes to sink my bet that they wouldn't score in Germany this summer.

What made it worse was it came from an attacking set piece when I spent the previous preview saying how poor they were at defending set pieces.

Could it get worse? Well, goalscorer Adam Buksa out jumped my anytime goalscorer tout Virgil van Dijk.

I literally could not have been more wrong.

Despite a plucky display against the Netherlands, Poland were only behind for seven minutes and still lost. It sets up a pretty enthralling clash with Austria, who also lost by one goal against France, as the pair look to battle it out for the best of the rest third spot.

Given the magnitude of the game for both sides, cards may be the best way in especially considering we have a pretty obliging referee. Halil Umut Meler has averaged just over five cards a game this term and dished out four in one game this summer.

Austrian midfielder Florian Grillitsch looks as likely as any candidate, he has picked up eight this season in the Bundesliga.

Netherlands vs France

  • Friday, June 21, 20:00

Someone is looking out for the Netherlands.

First they faced a Robert Lewendowsi-less Poland, now Kylian Mbappe should be ruled out of France's clash with Oranje with a broken nose.

The Netherlands took three from the clash with Poland, so Ronald Koeman would probably take a point against Les Bleus.

Having fallen behind so early, it is hard to draw too many conclusions from their opening game. They were level with eight minutes to go so the whole dynamic of the game was skewed.

Cody Gakpo looked menacing, albeit selfish, creating a xG+xA of 0.61 and equalising via a massive deflection. Memphis Depay also bristled with confidence showcasing some bombastic trickery.

Denzel Dumfries was the standout performer for me though marauding down the right. The right full back spent the majority of his time in the opposition half, had six touches in the opposition box and two shots.

Defensively, he was also pretty busy. Although he did not draw a foul, he committed two and completed three tackles.

That is part of the reason, his price to be shown a card against France appeals.

The main reason I fancy him for a booking though is because of his rivalry with his opponent Theo Hernandez.

The pair do not get one.

It is probably something to do with the Milan rivalry at club level. They were both sent off in the added time of the last Milan derby.

Now head to our Euro 2024 HUB for more day four content!

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