Euro 2024

Bet Builder Tips: Back Andy Robson's 5/1 best bet for two games on Thursday

England boss Gareth Southgate
Garth Southgate's Enngland are back in action on Thursday

Andy Robson is back again covering two of the three games taking place this Wednesday at Euro 2024, and has come up with a Bet Builder Multi that pays just over 5/1...

England Superboost

Don't fix what isn't broken they say, so Betfair are going again with the exact same Superboost selection in Denmark v England.

You can back Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham each to be fouled 1 or more times vs Denmark at 1/12.00, Superboosted up from 1/21.50!

The same selection won at a canter on MD1 vs Serbia, with Kane winning his first foul in the 55th minute to add to a couple that Bellingham had already won in the first half.

Indeed, Kane (6) and Bellingham (4) were fouled 10 times combined in the opening game, and will no doubt be targeted once again.

Heading into the Serbia match, the duo had been fouled 55 times between them in their last 15 England appearances, but their average has now risen to over 4 fouls won per game across their last 16 international caps.

Back the Superboost here!

Slovenia v Serbia (Thurs, 14:00)

Leg #1 -
Benjamin Seska to be fouled 1+ times

The young Slovenia and RB Leipzig forward is in demand throughout Europe, albeit he has recently signed a new contract with Leipzig, but his reputation is burgeoning, and with that comes a realisation from defenders and opposition coaches that Sesko needs planning for from a defensive perspective.

Sesko is probably good enough to keep going and be successful, but he may have to withstand a lot of physical challenges. He was fouled four times in the opening match of the tournament by Denmark, who aren't traditionally the most heavily fouling team.

Indeed, the way that Serbia handled Harry Kane in the opener is also instructive to this bet. Kane was fouled five times as he tried to hold the ball up for his team. Nikola Milenkovic stuck to Kane like glue all night and was fairly effective in doing so, but it did lead to a lot of physical battles, and it is difficult to see how one of those won't be blown by the referee in Sesko's favour if a similar tactic is employed against him.

The referee for the match has a career history of giving out a lot of cards, which correlates to fouls being given, so this could be a good price to add to the bet builder.

Leg #2 - Petar Stojanovic to commit 1+ foul

Continuing on the fouls theme, the Slovenian right-sided midfielder deserves to be added to this bet builder when looking at his activity on the pitch for his nation.

He is second only to Adam Cerin for the number of fouls committed in competitive internationals over the last couple of seasons, with an average of 1.41 per 90, well above the line required for this bet.

Recent competitive internationals have seen Stojanovic foul 2, 2, 0, 3, 2, 2, so five out of his six most recent internationals would've seen this bet win, and win comfortably. In essence, Stojanovic only needs to commit half the number of fouls he would regularly do for Slovenia in order for this bet to be a winner.

Again, the referee also seems like a conducive appointment for this bet.

Denmark v England (Thurs, 17:00)

Leg #3 -
Pierre-Emile Hojberg to commit 1+ foul

The Tottenham midfielder is the key cog in the Danish midfield and he has a multi-purpose role to perform in Kasper Hjulmand's side.

Much of the build-up goes through Hojbjerg as he can rotate with Andreas Christensen between midfield and defensive lines, but international managers are recognising that, and getting players around him to keep him under pressure.

Therefore it is normal to see Hojbjerg involved in a number of duels per match, some of which are fouls on him, and some will be fouls the other way.

Hojbjerg's recent record of fouls in international football reads 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, so at least one foul committed in his last eight internationals. As a result of Hojbjerg's importance to the team, he is rarely substituted early as well. This has happened only twice in competitive internationals under Hjulmand, once against San Marino and once against Andorra, so it is likely that this bet will have at least 85 minutes to run.

Leg #4 - Jude Bellingham to be fouled 2+ times

This leg of the bet builder also adds to the case for the Hojbjerg fouls. It is becoming a strong trend to see Bellingham being fouled, but because the data averages can take a while to catch up, it appears that the bookmaker prices are remaining fairly big for this eventuality.

Betfair are offering 1.87 for Bellingham to be fouled twice, when his most recent international data, and also his Real Madrid data suggests that it is much more likely than that.

After being fouled four times in the opening Euro 2024 match by Serbia, that takes Bellingham's total to 17 fouls against him in his last four internationals. With one of those matches lasting only 67 minutes against Brazil, that is an average of well over 4 fouls per 90 of late.

Bellingham's La Liga season saw him fouled 2.8 times per 90 minutes, and even his career average is just over 2 fouls against per 90 going back to his Birmingham City days.

With Bellingham's importance to England becoming increasingly obvious, and his notoriety increasing at the same time, it is likely that he will be targeted, so there is more chance of those numbers going up than down.

Now head to our Euro 2024 HUB for more tips and previews!

For insightful and smart football betting predictions catering to all types of bettors, you should visit my website. My Opta-powered bet builder stats tool is a great resource for bettors during Euro 2024, as is my Euro Hub which is live on-site with all the latest expert predictions and previews.

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