Euro 2012 Opta Stats: Italy a serious threat to Germany

Michael Lintorn
27 June 2012

The likable Cesare Prandelli has done a fine job rebuilding Italy

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Michael Lintorn sees enough in the Opta stats to suggest that Italy can halt Germany's longest ever winning streak...

"Germany have scored in each of their last 20 games (51 goals in total)."

Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 2.1411/10

Italy have never lost against Germany in a competitive game: boasting three wins and four draws (including two games played at the Euros: a 1-1 in 1988 and a 0-0 in 1996)
Such a record feels near improbable against a nation largely lauded as Europe's premier tournament experts, having lifted six trophies and reached a further seven finals, however it is a huge confidence generator for Italy heading into Warsaw. Also excellent for morale is the fact that they remain unbeaten in competitive action since Cesare Prandelli replaced Marcello Lippi after the World Cup, while they haven't trailed in such an environment since their first qualifier in Estonia.

Italy have failed to make it to the final in only two of the 10 semi-final games they've played at major tournaments
The Azzurri don't engage in semi-final combat quite as often as Germany but when they do get this far, they rarely waste the opportunity, with that 80% semi-final success rate a remarkable feat. They have found a way through their last three, the most recent their extra-time triumph over Germany in Dortmund at World Cup 2006. Italy operate in six-year cycles, peaking to reach the finals of World Cup 1994, Euro 2000 and World Cup 2006, and their impressive display against England hints that they are on course to prolong this pattern.

Germany have scored in each of their last 20 games (51 goals in total)
The depth of quality in Germany's attack is so vast that they were changed three of their forward quartet against Greece and still struck four times, with two of the understudies among the scorers. They have conceded in each of their last three matches though and while Italy haven't been anywhere near as prolific, they have fired just one blank and their three main forwards (Mario Balotelli, Antonio Cassano and Antonio Di Natale) are all off the mark.