Euro 2012 Day 15 tips: Terry all gold in tight contest

England v Italy
To score

To score indeed. This quarter-final is considered by many to be too close to call. We have the supremely efficient and organised Italians against the pretenders to their crown, England. When both teams set up, first and foremost, not to concede, it could be a cagey affair.

So finding a player who is going to make enough runs into the penalty area, let alone receive the ball and get a shot away, is tricky. In fact it is easier to rule players out as bad value. It is a useful start, however.

The first is Wayne Rooney. The ball bounced off Rooney against Ukraine as if he was a garage door in the final group match but he scored to give this column a winner. One wonders whether he will be in any better touch and it is confusing why, just because he has a few weeks off, he can't trap a ball.

No matter. Rooney is likely to be less effective tonight because he will have defensive duties. He must drop deeper to pick up Andrea Pirlo, the Italian playmaker over who England fret. It is probable that Rooney will start attacks, rather than finish them. He is 3.2011/5 to score and is a tempting lay.

If England are able to hit on a counter, the most likely beneficiary is Danny Welbeck. He could plough a lone furrow up front and England will look to to give him balls to chase on to. He is 5.309/2.

Oddly, perhaps for the first time in the tournament, Steven Gerrard may be a decent bet for a goal. England's stand out player will, of course, be primarily defensive-minded but because Pirlo is not the quickest he can afford to be a little more advanced than normal. The 6.005/1 may appeal.

Another striker we are not keen on is Mario Balotelli, although for different reasons. He has been described in the build-up as a "brilliant" player. This is most odd. Perhaps pundits et al are confused by the number of headlines he makes. Note: this is not because of his footballing ability.

Balotelli is 3.8514/5 for a strike. It does not catch the eye, particularly as this is a game where his temperament could get the better of him.

First goalscorer
The value market. Why? Well, if you subscribe to the view that this could be a tight game, then only one goal could win. To score prices are shorter than first goalscorer odds. The rational is clear.

It could be that a piece of briiliance wins it. And in this department the Italians are more dangerous. Pirlo, from free kicks, is a threat while the quick, nimble feet of Antonio Di Natale in the box could prove decisive. The pair are 18.5035/2 and 10.5019/2 respectively.

England? Well, we have discussed the potential of Welbeck to get into scoring positions - he is 11.0010/1 - but do not rule out John Terry. England have been dangerous from crosses from the right-hand side and the Italins have looked shaky in the air, particularly against Croatia.

Terry got his head on one against Sweden only to be denied by a brilliant save and he is always one to cause consternation. He is 29.0028/1 and although these may represent 'mug' odds, in a cat-and-mouse contest, he looks decent value.

Recommended bets

Lay W Rooney to score at 3.309/4
J Terry to score first at 29.0028/1