Spain have conceded the fewest goals in the tournament so far, with only one Italian goal against them. And they scored the most goals in the group stages: six, though four of these came in the Republic of Ireland game. Of those six goals scored, only one was scored in the first half (Fernando Torres on four minutes v Ireland).
France scored and conceded three goals in their group games, two coming against Sweden in their final game defeat. That defeat was the first for France in 23 outings, since the 1-0 reverse at Belarus in 2010.
Five of the six games played by these two at the championships have resulted in an Under 2.5 Goals scoreline - the exception being the Spain win over the Republic of Ireland: 4-0.
The last two times these two have met, Spain have won 1-0 and 2-0 and Vicente Del Bosque's team have scored at least once in their last five encounters with the French.
I anticipate another tight, low-scoring encounter but unfortunately, so do the Betfair markets. I wanted to be on Under 2.5 Goals but it is short at 1.654/6 and at that price there is no value, even though I do think that's what will happen.
My opening plays will be in the Correct Score market, backing Spain to win 1-0 and 2-0 BUT I will also be backing 0-0 and hoping to reduce my liabilities further in this market by laying it off after 25 minutes if the game is still goalless. The big danger here is of course an early French goal, whereby ALL bets would be lost. However, if that doesn't happen and there are no early goals or Spain score first, we should be able to create a nice position using the Cash Out feature.
England have already reached what I thought was their best finishing position. Pre-tournament I backed them to go out in the group stages (which they won!) with a saver on a quarter final exit. However, I must say they have pleasantly surprised me. England were never going to play the most attractive football but they have done the best with what they have. Again, I think they will be very defence-minded and difficult to break down but this time they come up against the masters of this style of play in Italy.
While they both scored more goals than I expected in the group stages (and both scored in every game which also surprised me), I do think these two teams will cancel each other out here - and could produce the first 0-0 of the tournament.
Again the Under 2.5 Goals market is very short and not for me at around 1.558/15 and of course this also means the Under 1.5 Goals option is a fair bit shorter than normal at around 2.5531/20. Therefore, I will be playing in the Correct Score market with a 'dutch bet' on 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 BUT 0-1 and 1-0 will initially be saver bets (see below of examples you may want to use for a £20 risk). I will then place an in-running lay of 0-0 at 4.47/2 for £20. If this gets matched, you would then have a free bet to win £20 should the game end 0-0, 0-1 or 1-0!
For more education on how to to make the most out of Betfair, visit our Help and Learning Zone