Stockport County v Leyton Orient Playoff Tips: Three second leg bets to follow first leg winners

• Both first leg BTTS and Anytime Scorer bets landed 

• Kelman red-hot and should be backed again

• Preview of League One play-off semi-final second leg on Wednesday

Decision shocker leaves tie all square

An entertaining 2-2 draw at Brisbane Road in the first-leg was dominated by Charlie Kelman, who not only scored the late equaliser from the spot on 88 minutes, but had the fortune of scoring on 30 minutes when about 20 yards offside. Stockport boss Dave Challinor described it as the worst decision in his management career.

That stroke of luck can play out in two ways in Wednesday's second leg - Orient will be thankful, but Stockport might still be feeling the anger from Saturday.

There hasn't been too much turbulence in terms of the Promotion Market betting, with Orient unmoved from the 9/25.50 price they were pre-Saturday, and Stockport are available on the Sportsbook to back at 15/82.88 and 2/51.40 To Qualify.

Since 2017-18, the side that finished third in League One during the regular season have reached the play-off final in six of the last seven seasons, with the exception of MK Dons in 2021-22, so the Hatters have that in their favour.

Match Odds: Stockport County 20/231.87, Leyton Orient 16/54.20, The Draw 5/23.50

Stockport's home record was impressive in the regular campaign with 16 victories at Edgeley Park and only Birmingham bettered that with their ridiculous 19.

Stockport quite rightly are short in the To Qualify market, but Orient finished the season like a train, earning 12 wins on the road too, and I am tempted to play the draw here at 5/23.50.

Only Birmingham City (50 points), Wycombe Wanderers (42) and Wrexham (39) picked up more than the O's away. Indeed, they've won each of their last four matches on the road, scoring 12 goals in total across that time, which not only backs up the draw but the Draw No Bet angle.

And if you go back far enough, the Londoners spanked County 1-4 in September with a classic counter-attacking performance and an early surge of goals from Ethan Galbraith.

Another Over 2.5 Goals match?

Both sides recorded healthy xG numbers on Saturday with the O's on 2.49 and Stockport on 2.03, and with both inclined to attack, I would be surprised if this played out as dull as the Charlton and Wycombe match.

Among the four sides in the League One play-off semi-finals, Orient recorded the highest xG total of any side (2.47), while it was their third-highest total in a League One game this season behind Crawley Town in December (3.3) and Barnsley in December (2.78).

The Under 2.5 Goals here is at 4/51.80 and the Overs at 1/12.00. I would have those two the other way around, with the BTTS 'Yes' at 20/231.87, and I am certainly interested in the Overs for this one, as Orient finished with 17 goals in their final six matches (all wins). Including Saturday's 2-2 with Stockport, their Over 2.5 Goals record was six from seven.

Can Kelman do it again?

Charlie Kelman delivered for the column with the two out of two bets and Kelman to score at anytime, so I for one am not bemoaning the stroke of fortune with the offside decision.

The QPR loanee has now netted 12 in 12, none are hotter, and with the forward on penalty duties too, I don't see why we should deviate from the bet again.

Including play-offs, Kelman has scored eight goals in his last seven League One games too, while on the road it's nine goals in his last 10 appearances. It's all there in the stats and we can back him at a massive 5/23.50 in the Anytime Scorer market and a huge 6/17.00 First Goalscorer.

For Stockport, Oliver Norwood both scored and assisted at Brisbane Road, while creating five chances in the game. Including play-offs, it's the fourth time he's created 5+ chances in a League One game this season, only Joe Powell has done so more often (eight times).

Norwood on the Anytime Assist can be backed at 16/54.20.

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