Saturday League One Tips: Millers set for one last push and Greens can win on Sky

Promotion and relegation possibles make for a dizzy Saturday

One of best climaxes to a League One season lies in wait for the backers and layers on Saturday, and with many a permutation for the title, promotion, play-off spot and relegation, the division that keeps on providing shocks no doubt has one or two more left in it in the dying embers of the regular campaign.

The League One Winner market flames however are still burning, and my ante-post tip of Rotherham to win the title at 15.014/1 has gone right down to the wire.

This should however, have been wrapped up ages ago for the profit. The Millers were the best team in the division by some way. But the Papa Johns Trophy defeat sparked a disastrous set of results. The team that kept clean sheets for fun, became the team that lost their defensive metier. After that, and the appearance of Paul Chuckle at Wembley, they've lost four in 10 and won three in 10. The fun factor has disappeared.

I've had some near misses for the title down the years. Bournemouth lost it at the last kick of the game many years ago, while the punt on Burton at around 32/1 almost came off. They went up, but were done on the line for the title.

Wigan are top by two points, and travel to Shrewsbury for Saturday - a tricky game as the Shrews are often underrated at home. But they're safe and have nothing to play, which is why the Latics are 1.412/5 in the League One Winner market. A price that Rotherham have been matched at, well shorter, as they were 1.3130/100 during their golden run.

The Millers need to win, not only for the title and my 15.014/1 ante-post bet, but they need Wigan to slip up and will be nervous of the MK Dons in third - who are a point behind Paul Warne's team and are away to the excellent Plymouth.

The scenario at the top and bottom appeared here this week from my colleague Max Liu (click here to read). Plymouth still have everything to play for and will be fighting out with Wycombe for a play-off spot.

Both are the biggest in terms of price of the contenders in the Promotion market. The Pilgrims are 9.89/1 with Wycombe (in seventh) at 7.87/1 - but Wycombe have the "easier" game at Burton - who have nothing to play for.

Down at the bottom, Gillingham look doomed in the Relegation market at 1.21/5, which is understandable as they face Rotherham who need to win at the Priestfield - with the visitors priced at 1.674/6 to do so. Wimbledon have 37 points and should beat Accrington who concede on the road for fun, although the Dons have drawn an amazing 14 games at Plough Lane this season, but it's Doncaster that look in deeper trouble with their shocking goal difference of -45. They also are on 37 points.

Fleetwood at 3.412/5 in the relegation betting are away to Bolton, but their superior goal difference of -18 is worth a point or two.

Rotherham can make us 7pts on the PL so it's a big weekend.

Town can enjoy their send-off at Portman

Ipswich Town v Charlton Athletic
Saturday 30th April, kick-off 15:00

With so many matches and their outcomes for next season riding on 90 minutes on Saturday, I've got a dead rubber to bet in, and Ipswich can see off the season at Portman Road with a home fixture against Charlton.

The Addicks have been a major disappointment following the burst of excitement when Johnnie Jackson took over. His high-intensity pressing game had at one stage transformed the team that seemingly had no energy.

A 59-point return isn't good enough, and it's a big summer of re-building for the Londoners and the fact they have lost 11 on the road makes them no-go betting material for the weekend.

Ipswich are only a place above Charlton, but they had a brief flirtation with a shot at the play-offs, but their problem of drawing too many games derailed that project and they are another perhaps in transition although Kieran McKenna has impressed me in the short time at Portman Road.

With a record of 10 home wins and nine draws, the price of 2.01/1 on the home win looks fair. I suspect a few players will be shipped out from Charlton in the summer, and with a good crowd as always at Portman, it should be the perfect opportunity to have a send-off. A cliche I know, but in this case it could well be true.

Charlton have picked up 19 points from their last nine games in League One (W6 D1 L2), having collected up only 18 points from their previous 18 such games (W5 D3 L10), so that's a bit of progress, but in turn, it makes the hosts a more attractive price in what could be a low-scoring affair.

KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton have lost only once in their previous six trips to Ipswich in the Football League (W2 D3), a 0-3 defeat in December 2014 during Bob Peeters' tenure.

Millers can get over the line for promotion, and maybe the title

Gillingham v Rotherham United
Saturday 30th April, kick-off 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Oh Rotherham, what's happened?

It's still possible that the Millers could find themselves in the play-offs if they lose and the MK Dons win at Plymouth, although that trip to Home Park looks a difficult one for Liam Manning's team.

If Gillingham v Rotherham was played last December, Paul Warne's team would have been shorter than around 1.75/7, but do we still want to back a team with a case of the wobbles at odds-on? It's a tricky one, as the 1.75/7 doesn't actually look a bad price.

The visitors have won five of their last six Football League encounters with Gillingham (L1), scoring 3+ goals in four of those five victories, and that bodes well if you want to explore the Gillingham +1 market angle. They absolutely smashed the Gills earlier in the season 5-1, and they have too many players of quality not to get a result here.

Neil Harris has done a good job, as they looked dead and buried under the chaotic days of Steve Evans, and he's made them harder to beat by simply trying to shut up shop in most games. They have scored just 13 times at the Priestfield, and since their 2-7 humiliation at the hands of Oxford in January, 13 games have hit the Under 2.5 target.

Defeat for Gillingham will all but condemn them to relegation to League Two, as Wimbledon can lose too but they have that crucial goal difference.

I'm using the Bet Builder here to back Rotherham to get the three points and the Both Teams To Score to make a 2.5531/20 bet. I was tempted with the Under 2.5 Goals, but Rotherham's five against them earlier in the season worries me slightly. I am also going to play on the Correct Score 0-1 and 0-2 bets at around 8.07/1 and 9.08/1, and both can be used as trade outs in-running if the first-half is dour - and that's what Gillingham will attempt to do.

KEP OPTA STAT: Rotherham have won five of their last six Football League encounters with Gillingham (L1), scoring 3+ goals in four of those five victories.

Will Manning be in panic mode for Argyle decider?

Plymouth Argyle v MK Dons
Saturday 30th April, kick-off 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football

With a Saturday treat of two live games on Sky at lunchtime, it sets up the day's sporting action superbly. The cameras have chosen the right games, as much still rests on both.

The probables for the MK Dons have been outlined above, as they need a win to give themselves a chance of going up automatically. A price of 2.226/5 can be found on the Promotion Market.

Each of the previous three Football League meetings between Plymouth and MK Dons at Home Park have been decided by 1-0 scorelines - with the Pilgrims winning twice in April 2011 and December 2020, with MK Dons recording their only such win in September 2017.

It could be that sort of match, and while tactically you get the feeling a Plymouth attack could play into the hands of MK Dons, 14 of Plymouth's last 15 games have all been Under 2.5 Goals games. The price of 1.865/6 is a bit bigger than I expected.

MK Dons have won 25 games in League One this season; only on three occasions have they won 26 games or more in a single Football League season: 26 in 2008-09, 27 in 2014-15 and 29 in 2007-08, and in Scott Twine they have a gem of a player. I think he's terrific, and with 16 goals this season and some long-range beauties - he is always worth a second-look in the To Score market is you are looking for a Bet Builder option.

Twine also appears to revel in front of the cameras, and scored a screamer for Swindon on telly a while ago.

Liam Manning's side dominate possession stats, and had an astonishing 70% of the ball in their recent match against Morecambe. Plymouth might have to change their style a bit, as not many teams out-ball MK.

Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in each of their last seven league games at Home Park (W6 D1) - only once in their Football League history have they had a longer run of successive home clean sheets, 10 games between September and December 1921, and with that in mind, I am chancing the hosts at the bigger price of 2.915/8, as with a roaring home crowd, the Dons will face a hot atmosphere. I am also going to have one last swansong with Twine in the To Score market, a cover bet pays 15/8 on the Sportsbook. Playing him and Plymouth to win pays nearly 13/1 using the Bet Builder.

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth are winless in each of their last two Football League encounters with MK Dons (D1 L1), having failed to win only one of the previous five games (W4 L1).