Saturday League One Tips: Expect the fireworks to continue with Barton against Brown

• Old firm duo come face-to-face again this Saturday
• Two Bet Builder options for the weekend on the Sportsbook
• Al Dudman previews three key games in the third tier with six selections this weekend
• Sign up for our World Cup Newsletter here

Both can score at the Mem in Barton derby

Bristol Rovers v Fleetwood Town
Saturday, 12th November, kick-off 15:00

Bristol Rovers have been one of the more entertaining teams in League One this term and you usually get goals with Joey Barton's team - along with the famous wipe board and motivational messages. The numbers reflect that opening statement both home and away thus far with 27 scored and 31 conceded.

The goals columns in both have seen the Gas score four and concede four on a couple of occasions, but they also conceded six in a 3-6 home defeat against Lincoln. Their xG figures at the Mem at 1.63 and 1.5 pushes me towards goals again for Saturday.

They kept two clean sheets in their first three league games this season according to Opta (2 goals conceded), but Rovers have recorded just one shutout in their last 14 (29 goals conceded) and they face a team in a reasonable run as Fleetwood Town have lost just one of their last seven away league games (W2 D4), going down 2-1 at Exeter last month.

They were drawing plenty of games early in the campaign, and that seems to have stymied their progress, and in the lower reaches of the table, there isn't much separating these two - in fact just a point. With nine draws in total (and four away), the best option if we are playing on goals could be backing the draw outright at 3.412/5 as the hosts look a little short for me at 2.26/5.

Using the Correct Score market to trade, I'd recommend looking at the 1-1, as Fleetwood have collected six in total already. Using the Bet Builder option, the draw and the BTTS to bet pays out a reasonable 3.814/5.

Barton of course not only renews a rivalry with his former club (and he'd been a success at Fleetwood), but he'll come face-to-face with Scott Brown - two shrinking violets from their time in Scotland together, and Brown will no doubt have Barton's pre-Old Firm clash comments from six years ago swirling around in his head.

"Without being disrespectful to the players up there, people keep talking about Joey Barton v Scott Brown. He's not even in my league - he's nowhere near the level of player I am. He can't get near me. If I play well, Brown does not stand a chance. That's not me being blase - that's just me stating what I believe," said Barton back in 2016.

Scott Sinclair was a recent addition on a short-term contract, and the former Chelsea man is back where it all started as a 15-year-old and capped a fine display on his first start last weekend with a goal in a 1-0 FA Cup against Rochdale. Sinclair may be well past his best, but his intelligence on the pitch is a good move from Barton with plenty of younger players around him as he's been such a good pro down the years.

Maybe he'll be the calming influence on the pitch when Brown and his opposite number exchange a few words? I'm looking forward to this one, and Sinclair is an 11/4 price to Score Anytime on the Sportsbook.

KEY OPTA STAT: Fleetwood Town won their last away match against Bristol Rovers in the Football League 4-1 in November 2020 and are looking to record successive away victories over the Pirates for the first time.

Posh far from convincing on the road and Grecians can earn a win

Exeter City v Peterborough United
Saturday, 12th November, kick-off 15:00

A meek 0-0 draw with Salford City in the FA Cup last weekend did little to assuage the frustration with Peterborough at times this season. On the face of it, fourth in League One and plenty of goals at home has them in a good position. But they are 10 points off Plymouth and it has been a campaign of fits and starts. I suppose the clean sheet was a plus. Hot on the heels of an excellent derby win against Cambridge, it was a very flat performance and they barely had a shot in anger against Salford.

Posh have a brutal November in store in terms of journeys, and Grant McCann's men will have to get used to life on the road as the 480-mile sortie to the west country awaits this Saturday to St James' Park, and November will see them clock up over 2,000 miles. They are without a home fixture until December 2nd, and their three games this month will see them travel to Exeter, Salford (FA Cup replay) and Bristol.

Joe Ward and Kwame Poku are fitness plusses for McCann, as those two are key players and could be ready for Saturday although Frankie Kent is suspended.

They dominated the Cambridge match and their passing game was too much for a physical Cambridge team, but on the road Posh haven't been convincing, and the market reflects that with a price of 2.915/8 for the hosts and around 2.56/4 for the visitors. They have a good record against Exeter though, and are unbeaten in their last four matches against the Grecians in the Football League (W2 D2) although both of their away matches in that run have ended in draws.

The draw looks a possible too, considering the tightness of the market for this, but Exeter are very inconsistent with their last three home games reading 2-1, 2-4 and 2-2.

Exeter appointed Gary Caldwell as manager two weeks ago to continue the Celtic theme this week and it will be a good test against Posh with their xA of 1.17 thus far - although Posh tend to do their scoring at home (21) rather than away (11).

I might just take a chance on Exeter for this one, the draw was close to a bet, but Posh are boom and bust on the road with three wins and five losses (no draws), and the 2.915/8 is just about acceptable. They played very well in the first-half in the recent Monday Sky game against Devon derby rivals Plymouth, and controlled the midfield with the overloads well, but the Pilgrims changed shape to a 4-4-2 and they lost a foothold on the game. Plymouth are top drawer this season, but they worked and took their goals well, and not many open up the Greens the way they did in the first 45.

KEY OPTA STAT: Exeter have conceded at least four goals in three of their last five league games, as many times as they had in their previous 219 matches in the Football League.

Brewers have tightened up since Maamria in charge

Burton Albion v Charlton Athletic
Saturday, 12th November, kick-off 15:00

Charlton are one of those maddening League One teams that any result is possible, and anything was possible in that crazy 4-4 game with Ipswich recently at the Valley. On more than one occasion this season they have looked a good side, and Ben Garner's brand of football works. But this is a team that can thump Portsmouth at home 3-0 and lose to the MK Dons 0-2 the following week.

I got sucked into backing the Londoners at 1.774/5 versus the Dons. I need to learn my lesson when a good thing looks a good thing on paper but is anything but. They are favourites again for Saturday at 2.56/4, so nowhere near the 4/6 price, and with Burton, no side in England's top four tiers has lost more league games than the Brewers so far this season (11, level with Huddersfield Town). So in theory, this should be easy? That's not how the betting sees this, and Burton at around 2.9215/8 aren't far off the Addicks in terms of a price.

Do they deserve it? It's hard to say, as recent away form suggest absolutely not, but their last three Pirelli games have all been tight affairs with a 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 - so you can see where this one potentially is going. They've been harder to beat under Dino Maamria, and the comedy defending that littered the Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink era has gone.

Maamria has some injury worries, as column favourite John Brayford is still on the sidelines, while Adrian Mariappa, who was substituted last weekend due to tight glutes, is a doubt for Saturday, along with Sam Winnall and Mustapha Carayol.

His side almost pulled off a great point at Bolton last month, leading 0-1 up to 87 minutes, only to concede on 87 and stoppage time - something that rankled with Maamria and the seven minutes of bonus play. However, they defended a lot better and while they struggled to create much themselves, they looked a far more solid unit than two months ago when they were all over the place.

The Under 2.5 is surprisingly the bigger of the two at 1.9620/21, and I thought it would be nearer 1.84/5 or 1.758/11, and that's a bet I like considering their last three home matches have all hit the target. They had a gameplan and stuck to it fairly rigidly in that Bolton effort, and I can't see them having as much possession for this game.

The Addicks completed the double over Burton Albion in League One last season, with the Addicks keeping a clean sheet in both meetings (1-0 away, 2-0 home), so it gives another pointer towards out under bet.

There could be several ways to play this using the Bet Builder on the Sportsbook. Charlton havbe an xG on the road this season of just 1.04, which is low. So backing the draw and 'No' in the BTTS market on the Sportsbook pays around 10.09/1, while backing Under 3.5 Goals and BTTS 'No' looks a decent one at 2.0811/10.

KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton won 1-0 at Shrewsbury in their last away league game, ending a run of eight games without a win on the road (D4 L4).

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