Alan Dudman looks ahead to some key games this weekend with two trebles in the EFL...
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Top of the table clash at Bolton a close one
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Mansfield and Wrexham to push for title
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Alan Dudman has EFL 16/117.00 and 18/119.00 Saturday Accas
League One
Fleetwood are still six points from safety with just four matches left and it's hard to fancy them at such a short price this weekend considering their form.
They've won just once since early February and despite the fanfare of the appointment of Charlie Adam, it hasn't worked out and they are struggling for goals. When a team is so short on firepower, and one that needs a point at least, my leaning here is to go for the draw at 5/2.
The Cod Army have drawn five of their last nine and have never lost at home to Northampton Town in the Football League, winning four and drawing one of five such matches whilst keeping a clean sheet in each of those outings.
KEY OPTA STAT: Fleetwood Town have won just two of their last 13 home league games (D4 L7), keeping just two clean sheets during that time.
We're riding the Lincoln train again for Saturday as the Imps continue their unlikely push at a play-off spot although last Saturday's 1-1 draw with Reading and no game in midweek has seen them slip out of the top six.
The match at Reading was a game of very few chances and Lincoln's counter-attacking game and the hosts enjoyed all the possession with head coach Michael Skubala saying: "They're good at home, are a tough team to play against and have some good players. It's a point on the road and we keep going."
The Imps are unbeaten in 16, start strongly and good at set-pieces, and there's not a lot to crab about their form as previously they had won five on the spin with three clean sheets at home.
Wigan Athletic have won just five of their last 24 away league games played on a Saturday (D8 L11), with the Latics keeping just three clean sheets across that time.
KEY OPTA STAT: The goalless stalemate between these two sides in December was the only draw in the last 10 league meetings between Lincoln (4 wins) and Wigan (5 wins).
Portsmouth's title claims on 90 points is within touching distance to finally end their League One stay, and with Derby slipping up in midweek, the seven point advantage looks too much for the Rams now.
Pompey have been so consistent and have scored eight in their last three, and have the hex on Bolton after beating them earlier in the season at Fratton with a 2-0 success.
Bolton have 14 home wins, but the seven point distance to Portsmouth means the visitors will be happy with a point to keep them at arms' bay and with John Mousinho's side losing just two of their 21 away league games this season (W12 D7), with Pompey netting 2+ goals in nine separate matches during that run, I am happy to go with the draw here.
KEY OPTA STAT: Having won this exact fixture last season 3-0, Bolton could win back-to-back home league games against Portsmouth for the first time since December 2006, when they did so in the Premier League under former manager Sam Allardyce.
League Two
Mansfield have hit a mini-blip at the wrong time with just one victory from their last four including a surprising 1-4 home drubbing by Crawley - not many would have seen that.
That form has influenced the price, so too the form of the Dons ahead of this top-of-the-table clash, and the hosts are unbeaten in six Football League meetings with Mansfield (W4 D2) since a 1-2 defeat in August 2006.
The Dons are also just two points behind Mansfield with a game played more, and it would be unthinkable if Nigel Clough's team were to miss out on an automatic promotion berth.
Mike Williamson's team are unbeaten across their last eight home league games (W7 D1), winning each of their last four such matches in succession whilst scoring 3+ goals in each so there is not much to split the two - and with Mansfield drawing six on the road, I am taking the stalemate here.
KEY OPTA STAT: Mansfield Town have never won away to MK Dons in League Two in three previous trips (D1 L2).
I opposed Wrexham in midweek with Crawley who went into that game with an excellent record on the road, but Wrexham found their 'A Game' with a 4-1 win and a brace from Paul Mullin.
Mullin is 4/61.67 to score anytime, and that's probably a fair bet, but Forest Green are no Crawley and have lost five of their last six. Quite where the 0-3 win at Crewe came from in that run was a mystery.
Forest Green Rovers have failed to win any of their last 11 away league games played on a Saturday (D4 L7), conceding 2+ goals in eight of those matches, which is not a stat to take to Wales, and hopefully the HT/FT can come up trumps here at evens for a side that have scored an astonishing 54 at home.
KEY OPTA STAT: Forest Green are winless in seven league meetings with newly promoted opponents (D3 L4) since a 2-1 win over Bristol Rovers on the opening day of the 2022-23 League One campaign.
Salford City have lost each of their last three league games, the club's longest losing streak since a run of four defeats ending in January, so they are hardly in great shape considering their league position.
Karl Robinson revived City to pull them clear of the relegation zone and they can draw positives from the fact that two of their final three matches are at home.
They didn't play too badly at Wimbledon last week and did create a few chances, while Bradford are a side I have never really been with this season. Graham Alexander returns to the club where he managed previously leading them to promotion, but they have lost nine on the road.
KEY OPTA STAT: Salford City are winless in four league games against Bradford City (D1 L3), this after winning four in a row against the Bantams beforehand.
Now read Alex Boyes' Opta Stats Bet Builder column for Saturday in the Premier League