Peterborough v Oxford: Back Posh to earn Wembley spot

• Oxford hold a slender advantage from first leg

• Posh the League One top scorers at home

• Alan Dudman picks out a 9/25.50 bet for Wednesday

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Peterborough United v Oxford United
Wednesday 8th May, kick-off 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Oxford United are now closer to Peterborough in the Promotion Market on the Exchange from over 6.05/1 to 4/71.57 thanks to their 1-0 first-leg win at the Kassam, but Posh are a touch shorter in the same market at 4.57/2. Bolton's price is now odds-on following their progress to Wembley last night.

Tonight's game looks more of a case of Ferguson playing the two legs rather than the one as Peterborough. I am sure, would have been happy with the low-scoring game at the Kassam.

The 90 minutes produced just two shots on target for each with arguably Peterborough having the best of the chances but it was minimal, with Ferguson's side better out of possession than they were in it.

"The goal came out of the blue as we defended really well and if we take the way we finished that game into the start tomorrow I will be confident of getting the result we need," he said.

Des Buckingham reflected on Oxford's performance by saying: "To come away with an advantage was important because they're a very good team. We saw that when we played them at their place, and the last two occasions when we played them. I'm sure Wednesday will be a very tough challenge for us."

Posh have no new injury concerns. Ferguson will have to decide who plays on the right between Kwame Poku and David Ajiboye.

Match Odds

Peterborough in the 90 minutes market is more than fair at 5/61.84 and 1/12.00 in the Match Odds outright, and they did win the home clash with the U's back in December comfortably with goals from Hector Kyprianou, Ricky-Jade Jones and Ryan De Havilland.

The hosts scored more home goals than any of the top seven all season with 55, and the question of whether Oxford can keep out such a good attack on Wednesday night leads me to answer a resounding 'no'.

Oxford did lose eight on the road and scored 35 and conceded 32. Their xg and xA numbers were very similar away from the Kassam too at 1.35 and 1.31.

Those numbers back up the bet here to play Posh to win.

Price on HT/FT looks appealing

Playing the HT/FT is always quite tricky in my opinion, as we can often get drawn into a short price for a home win and play to win the two halves, but I anticipate a close first-half here, especially judged on how the first leg went, and the Draw/Peterborough price at 9/25.50 is a big one.

Asked if he will head to Peterborough to defend, Buckingham said: "I think we'd be naïve to try and do that. I've never done that, and I don't want to be that type of coach."

However, it was such a cagey game, I cannot see both morphing into all out attack here, and that 9/25.50 gives us a chance with a tight first-half.

Over 2.5 Goals looks short

With Posh as the League One leading scorers and a home xG of 1.77 (xA figure 1.11), the market is expecting goals here with the Over 2.5 Goals at 4/71.57.

I played the Overs with Barnsley and Bolton last night and they scored five between them, but I can't see this game panning out the same way and that price does look short enough.

On the flipside I don't really want to get involved with the Under 2.5, as if it's tight, we have the HT/FT bet at a much bigger price.

Oxford's 32 goals scored on the road does worry me for a bet where you need three goals on the night - unless of course Posh net three.

Mason-Clark could have a good night

Ephron Mason-Clark is 15/82.88 to Score Anytime and 5/16.00 for First Goalscorer, and that's bigger than Jonson Clarke-Harris - who still has some cache in this division but didn't start or feature at Kassam, and I can't help but feel they should be the other way around.

Mason-Clark was kept quiet by the Oxford defence a few days ago, but it could be different story tonight and it will be interesting to see if Oxford adopt the fast press they employed in the first game.

Mason-Clark has 19 in all comps and seven at home, I am happy to play him as Anytime Scorer, while Harrison Burrows hasn't scored in five. The EFL Wembley hero is 11/112.00 First Goalscorer.

Including play-offs, Oxford United's Cameron Brannagan is one of only two players to record 10+ goals (12) and 10+ assists (10) in League One this season, along with Aaron Collins (11 goals, 10 assists), and Brannagan is 9/25.50 Anytime Scorer.

Now read Lewis Jones' match preview and tips for Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

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