League Two Tips: Saddlers can continue to climb

Head to the Banks with a goals bet

Walsall 2.526/4 v Port Vale 3.185/40; the draw 3.55/2

Darrell Clarke must be delighted that three straight wins have pushed Walsall up the table. He must have been particularly happy to turn an unbeaten run of two draws into a winning one by bursting Tranmere's unbeaten streak, with a 3-1 win, then adding two more victories.

He is definitely delighted at Elijah Adebayor's improvement this season. It seems no coincidence that the 22-year-old has scored four goals in the team's five-game unbeaten sequence. The fact they have 10 goals in that time emphasises Clarke's point, in an interview, that several players have vastly improved, after he was asked about Adebayor.

Only Mansfield (10) have a higher number of draws than Walsall (9) In League Two. Why have they drawn so much? Because they mostly conceded, not just score, in a game. In 18 matches, they have just three clean sheets. In those past five unbeaten, they have conceded six times.

However, they are finding a way to outscore opponents. They netted two against Bolton and three at Oldham who seem to play open football.

Of all those other goals, only Josh Gordon has scored twice. Both were penalties. He hasn't played much this season but won't want to lose his place if Walsall, who Opta say are looking for their first back-to-back home wins since January, continue to rise.

I think they can beat Port Vale, but could their opponents help us to add a side bet of goals? Their statistics could well fit that bill. In their past five games, both teams have scored. A bet on that is about 1.84/5. Looking for over 2.5 goals is catchable at 2.111/10. Over 3.5 goals always seems a bit of a risk, but there is often value at 3.613/5.

You can also go to the Sportsbook and combine a home win with over 2.5 goals in a Same Game Multi that pays at 3.77.

Goals for and against the Valiants in those five games are 11-10, bolstered by an unusual 6-3 win at Bolton. Take a couple off and that's still a high return to justify looking for 2.5 goals. Maybe more.

Leon Legge, Devante Rodney and Christian Montano have scored twice in those five games. Even veteran Tom Pope, in a reshuffled side against Forest Green, would have scored, had not a defender made it an own goal. He was recalled, with Scott Burgess, because Dave Worrall and Manny Oyeleke were injured. Rodney, repositioned to the right to accommodate Pope in the centre, and Alex Hurst impressed on the wings.

Vale boss John Askey remains frustrated at the lack of clean sheets - none in eight games after five earlier in the season - saying they are undermining promising overall performances. Ultimately that could be their undoing at Banks's Stadium, in an entertaining game. The envelope could well be worth pushing for over 3.5 goals at 3.613/5.

Salford must wake and smell the Sulphur

Harrogate 2.8415/8 v Salford 2.6413/8; the draw 3.55/2

Harrogate have earned their only points in the past six games - both wins - on Tuesday nights. When a team does something like that, it starts to become a habit not a coincidence. The Surphurites' midweek win at Exeter certainly seemed of the freak, anti-form variety I have always found ignorable when it happens midweek.

Simon Weaver's men had not even scored in two games before Brendan Kiernan nabbed the opener at Exeter, who are great at home and had cracked in 11 goals in two games at St James' Park. Jack Muldoon's winner really did amount to a result against the grain, making it two wins in 11 League Two games overall.

The previous time they scored was in a 5-2 defeat at Scunthorpe, but there is little else to think that this game could be a goal feast. Three of their four away wins before Tuesday came before mid-October.

On hinting so far towards a Salfords opportunity to win - and the doubt is built into their price of 2.68/5 - we are still relying a little bit on the Ammies' reputation and ambition even though, as Opta point out, have won just once at home (D3 L4).

Having sacked Graham Alexander when they were unbeaten after five league games, they haven't exactly shot to the top of the league. They don't even sit in the play-off positions. There's work for manager Richie Wellens to do in order to rattle the promotion cause. Now's the time before the festive frenzy. Here's a chance to prove themselves.

A point at home to Newport on Tuesday began to show their credentials, with the visitors having a nightmare journey and rescuing a point with a late penalty, much agonising Wellens. Ten shots on target was a positive sign, Brandon Thomas Asante and, before scoring, Tom Clarke, drew saves. But Ian Henderson can't afford to miss any more penalties.

Eight goals for and four against in their past six games is on the low side. Three goals in their past four games is a little since worthy. But Wellens should be able to figure out which players of quality within his squad can prise open their hosts to win. None of their previous nine away games have finished level, say Opta. Here is a chance to add to the five which were wins.

Factors that add up to laying the Stags

Mansfield 1.68/13 v Southend 6.411/2; the draw 4.47/2

Greg Halford's latest twist in his football story seems one from the Boys Own comics. The defender hadn't played a professional game in 18 months (it ended in injury). He put out a plea - a kind of "SOS" saying he'd play for free. He trained with one club then signed for a month at Southend on Tuesday, scoring on his debut that evening in a 3-1 win.

At 36, he feared his career was over, said the story's opening sentence. Well, actually he's jolly lucky to think he still had one at 36 because plenty of players are retiring at 34 or 35. We can put that line down to story-telling interpretation.

The result meant that eyebrows raised after the Shrimpers won at home to Scunthorpe, 1-0 courtesy of James Olayinka, hurtled up into hairlines with that 3-1 win over Grimsby. Halford finished it off with the third, Kyle Taylor and Tom Clifford scoring beforehand.

That's three unbeaten for Mark Molesey's men, who were locked out on their return to Roots Hall by disgusted fans after one match just a few weeks ago. In fact, in their past six games they have also won another, at Walsall with a clean sheet, of which they have three in six games.

They are more resilient perhaps. Still bottom, they are just a point behind the relegation line two places above them. There's improvement. But let's not expect miracles for an away win at Mansfield.

What we should examine is how far Mansfield have improved under Nigel Clough. In nine League Two and FA Cup games, they have won two in the league and two in the cup (one in extra time), drawn three and lost two - against the varying strengths of Harrogate (five league games ago) and Carlisle (last time), both 1-0.

The manager seemed particularly pleased with their resolve not to be beaten at Grimsby (1-1) in the poorest performance of his reign. They clawed back to draw 3-3 with Crawley. But he knows he has quality such as winger Nicky Maynard and scoring midfielder George Lapslie. Jordan Bowery has never been the most prolific up front. But on the positive side Clough's not making overt hollerings saying the January transfer window can't come soon enough. Maybe that's because he's got more class.

The Stags have not won at Field Mill in the League this season - the only League Two team not to win at home, as Opta point out (that's nine. The last time they went 10 without a win was 1971-72). The lack of wins at home and the other factors above make me question the 1.68/13 on the home win, which is therefore a lay, covering the potential draw but also the outside possibility of Southend's momentum earning them a sneaky three points.