League Two Tips: Colchester can take point from Clough

Tight visitors ought to be able to earn a point

Friday, November 20 19.00 kick-off
Mansfield 2.56/4 v Colchester 3.211/5; the draw 3.613/5

The Stags' rapid turnaround in form since Graham Coughlan's exit seems to drive the shortness of their price to win. Even after a couple of draws before their FA Cup win at Sunderland and victory at Forest Green, we should remember that confidence is fragile and they are still near the foothill of League Two.

Opta point out they have not won back-to-back League Two matches since October 2019, but they also say that Colchester are winless away this season, drawing three from five. It seems astonishing for a team who are seventh.

Clough talks of potential and improved confidence. He spoke of Jordan Bowery being exhausted after the win at Forest Green, having run himself ragged. George Lapslie, on loan from Charlton, has found the net in three league and FA Cup games running, while Harry Charsley, has also found the net three times this season, notably twice in the past four last matches - all games in which the Stags have scored.

But let's not write off Steve Ball's side. They have scored in all but one game this season, not doing so away at Bradford in the opening game. Jevani Brown has really found his touch in the past few weeks, scoring six of his seven goals in the past three games - and all those goals this season, having signed in July 2019.

Ball wants to see more goals contributed from wide players and midfielders. But to call them "free-scoring" is a misnomer away from home. The fourth-highest scorers in the division overall are joint fifth lowest away from home, netting five times in five games. They have conceded seven. Tight games.

They will look to lift that tally especially with Tommy Smith insisting their aim is promotion. He offers experience at the back with Tom Eastman. There is every chance that Mansfield's improvement can bring them a draw against a side which has a habit of drawing - and low scoring and conceding - away.

Don't be surprised if Crawley dominate at home

Saturday November 21, 13:30 kick-off
Crawley 2.915/8 v Carlisle 2.68/5; the draw 3.711/4

What Crawley need to do, in order to prove my predictions about their away points correct, is to stop conceding within the last 20 minutes. Their home form, however, continues to see off all comers. Yet the prices indicate that Carlisle are favourites for the victory here.

This makes little sense. The Cumbrians, emphasise Opta, have won once away this season, drawing two of their five games. Only Southend have scored fewer than Chris Beech's side's three away goals this season.

Crawley, meanwhile, are unbeaten in 14 games at home, but have not won all those of course. But they have won 10, Opta indicate, adding that they haven't won four in a row since October 2015. Well, they haven't been in this sort of home form since, I'd venture.

Having gained just a point from two games - both away - John Yems will be delighted to get back to the Broadfield, where The Reds beat in-form Cambridge last time out. Previous to that they trounced Tranmere 4-0 and defeated then in-form Morecambe by the same score.

This is a test of young Max Watters' skills, having joined the Sussex team in October, and his team-mates such as Jake Hesketh and Jake Hessenthaler. It's a test of Tom Nichols' renewed enjoyment of the game, for which he credits Yems, as well as the hosts' ambitions for the season. Jon Mellish, for Carlisle, has his work cut out to build on his 11 goals this season, having netted Carlisle's past five (two in the FA Cup).

Iron deserve benefit of the doubt

15:00 kick-offs
Scunthorpe 2.747/4 v Morecambe 2.789/5; the draw 3.613/5

Digging in and winning despite not playing very well is something any manager with a team near the bottom would want to see. Neil Cox defined the win at Port Vale thus, with "leggy" players who had taken only a second League Two win of the season on Saturday.

The Iron manager will be hoping they have enough recovery in them to take a third win. Winning at Port Vale is no mean feat, especially without conceding - for the second game running. Ebo Eisa gained plenty of plaudits, but Ryan Loft also saw a fine chance come back off the metalwork.

I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt that their two-week pause to the season - and subsequently playing games catch-up - is the reason why Scunthorpe are quite so low in the table. Some fans seem to be blaming a summer recruitment policy that involved bringing players in before recruiting a manager.

Scunthorpe certainly have ended a long losing streak with measurable improvement. Morecambe, meanwhile, have fallen off that top pedestal after a fine start to the season. One win in six games comes with three draws, but Derek Adams must be frustrated after such a fine start. Aaron Wildig seemed to capture his best form at the start of the season. Adam Phillips has done pretty well with five goals and the manager is pleased with how Carlos Mendes Gomes is progressing.

The Shrimps have at least scored in each of their past six league games but I think Scunthorpe's newfound confidence should give them the edge.

Back the draw at Brisbane Road

Leyton Orient 2.915/8 v Harrogate 2.77/4; the draw 3.55/2

Leyton Orient's form might have tailed off with a couple of narrow defeats away to high-flying sides, but I venture that this match gives them a fantastic chance to "get back on the horse".

The O's have scored in 11 of their 12 League Two matches this season. That at least gives them a chance of points. However, they have only won once at home, thrashing Bolton 4-0 in their last League Two match at Brisbane Road.

Boss Ross Embleton will hope Conor Wilkinson and Danny Johnson, who have five and six goals apiece, will have inspired days.

Paul Thirwell will continue to deputise for manager Simon Weaver, absent through Covid, but it made little difference against Crawley. The pair were in constant contact and changed tactics to help the Sulphurites level for a point.

Jake Lawlor, another understudy - for Will Smith - seems to have fitted in quickly alongside Connor Hall. The visitors have a fine away record to defend, winning three and drawing one of six. That last win was six games ago, however, and the only win in six. Colchester and Newport were the two sides to beat them in their past two away trips. Only by a goal each. Jack Muldoon and co can redeem themselves with a draw.