League Two Tips: Back Sutton and Crawley on opening day

Gray's men to follow up on a fine first season

Sutton United 2.447/5 v Newport 3.412/5; the draw 3.55/2

Ride the wave until it looks like a bubble could burst is my plan with Sutton this season. A new Football League club last year, they reached the EFL Trophy Final at Wembley.

They will be confident of another good campaign, especially if they can match their record of the third highest number of home wins (14), as Opta remind us.

Boss Matt Gray has recruited largely from what he knows - non-league. In come Wrexham striker Kwame Thomas and United Counties League forward Tope Fadahunsi. He has also added league experience in winger Luke Gambin.

Tobi Ogundega (MK Dons) adds youth at the back, while many of last year's squad remain, including Omar Bugiel, Louis John and Enzo Boldewijn. Evolution not revolution.

There was plenty to like last season at Gander Green Lane, where the U's had a strong record and 2.447/5 on the home win is fair. The layers seem more sceptical about James Rowberry's visitors, at 3.412/5.

Offrande Zanzala (Barrow) and Omar Bogle (Hartlepool) offer a new front line with Cardiff loanee Chanka Zimba. Aaron Wildlig (Morecambe) adds experience from this level.

Exits this summer, though, include Padraig Amond, perhaps prematurely, and League Two top scorer Dom Telford (Crawley), whose boots are huge to fill.

Defender Aaron Lewis seemed lively going forward in their final pre-season game, a 1-1 daw with Forest Green. Keeper Joe Day made a fine save but his top form might not be enough here.

Bet builder:
Sutton United to win and Over 2.5 Goals @ 3.412/5

Attack a juicy price on Crawley

Carlisle 2.56/4 v Crawley 3.39/4; the draw 3.412/5

Crawley's American cryptocurrency owners say that even their own position will be put to the vote of fans if they don't win promotion in two years. The impact of their experiment of turning the Reds into some sort of online fan franchise has put a buzz around the Broadfield.

Manager Kevin Betsy is clearly going for all out attack, Kevin Keegan style. Former Tottenham trainee Moe Shubbar's trial succeeded with four goals against East Grinstead and another against Charlton Under-23s.

Former Woking winger Betsy has also signed MK Dons wide man Brandon Mason and League Two top scorer last year Dom Telford. How will they all fit in with existing trio Ashley Nadeson, Tom Nichols and Kwesi Appiah?

Meanwhile, his opposite number Paul Simpson said a week before the match he was "very close" to knowing who would start, hoping Omari Patrick would be ready. However, he has only 16 outfield players and wants more signings

Midfield Owen Moxon seems to have been the star of pre-season after stepping up from part-timers Annan Athletic, being involved in all three goals in a win over Bolton Wanderers.

The big question is how well will striker Ryan Edmonson, 21, signed from Leeds, and young Fulham midfielder Sonny Hilton (loan), be able to boost an attack that looked goal shy at times last season?

The away win is a big price for a squad who pinched plenty of away points last year.

Opta say Crawley haven't won at Carlisle since their first ever away EFL win, in 2012. It's time that changed, especially as the hosts have won just once on the opening day of the past 11 seasons.

Swindon should be on song

Harrogate Town 3.412/5 v Swindon Town 2.35/4; the draw 4.03/1

If wide attacker Harry McKirdy can find anything like the form of last season he could not only be top scorer (he was third last season on 22) but Swindon could gain automatic promotion.

He needs help to take the pressure for goals off one pair of shoulders, though, and Jacob Wakeling, having left Leicester, has a chance to make his mark. Jack Payne's exit to Charlton, following boss Ben Garner, is however a bit of a blow.

The Robins had 13 wins and 42 goals away from home last season, both League Two bests. Scott Lindsey has lots of positives on which to build. Swindon have a claim to fame here, say Opta. They have won their opening game in the past eight seasons - the longest such run in the EFL.

Harrogate manager Simon Weaver has to turn around a losing streak from the second half of last season. Those who remain from the climb out of non-league will not want a repeat of last season which seemed to unravel. Extended deals for striker Luke Armstrong and experienced defender Rory McArdle are welcome.

Several other recruits have League One experience or higher: Huddersfield's Matty Daly and Rotherham's Joe Mattock. After defeat at Barnsley in a friendly, scorer Alex Pattison said they needed to nip defensive errors in the bud. These have been a problem since Christmas. Weaver had a few rants from March onwards, warning players they could exit in the summer.

Ten signings hints that he followed through on his threats. Max Wright (Grimsby), says he wants to bring excitement. If would be great if they did, but Swindon should be too strong.

Back two of the big hitters to draw

Salford City 2.56/4 v Mansfield Town 3.412/5; the draw 3.55/2

A big two - of half a dozen or so - clash at the Peninsula Stadium. Usually I look for games with goals on the opening day, but on an initial reading of this one I smelt exactly the opposite - nil, nil.

Mansfield are looking to make a statement after playoff final defeat against perennial League Two title favourites (or close to it).

New Stags signings such as Will Swan (attack) and Riley Harbottle (defence), both on loan from Nottingham Forest, will be looking to make an early mark.

Fresh deals have been handed to Stephen Quinn (midfield), Jordan Bowery (forward) and James Perch (defence) in a squad that has not seen a huge deal of change apart from goalkeepers Scott Flinders and Christy Pym (loan, from Peterborough).

The hosts have to apply new ideas entirely, under the direction of incoming manager Neil Wood, the former Manchester United Under-23s coach who has to prove himself as a frontline manager.

Signing midfielder Elliot Watt from Bradford could prove astute. Richard Nartey's arrival from Burnley is amusingly timed, given he was on loan at Mansfield last season.

The Ammies, say Opta, have yet to lose against Mansfield, winning 2-0 before Nigel Clough's men got going last year, then drawing 2-2 in the spring. The Stags have only failed to score once in five games against them, but also never kept a clean sheet. Let me revise the draw up a notch, to 1-1.