League Two Tips: Back Stags to climb further on Friday

Tranmere's strong home record could be undone

Friday, 19:45

Tranmere 3.211/5 v Mansfield 2.6413/8, the Draw 3.39/4

Micky Mellon wants Tranmere to rekindle their missing "spark" on Friday night against Mansfield, but on form the chances of that happening don't look good.

Rovers have not won in five games (which seems a strange state of affairs) while Nigel Clough's side have a masterful 11 wins in an unbeaten 14-game run. To boot, the Stags have only conceded four times (in separate games) in their past nine matches. Opta add they have had only one longer unbeaten run - 17 games - this century.

Yes, there have been two goalless draws in that time, but Rhys Oates, Newcastle's Matthew Longstaff (with two goals in four starts) and co have a sniff now of achieving the astonishing. Victory would take them into the automatic promotion places, having languished in the bottom third for quite a while in the autumn, with Covid and injuries causing havoc.

I look for the angle that would be an upset for a Friday night bet and Mansfield don't have the most blistering away record - just four wins. Plus five draws. Points-wise, Tranmere in fact have the joint second best home record in League Two (37 with Sutton United). One behind Mansfield. It would be a shock of shorts for Tranmere to win. Certainly if you take one of the Opta stats to heart: Tranmere have not beaten Mansfield in the past seven attempts (four draws) scoring just once.

Winning to nil was Tranmere's MO for a while - nine in 12 from early December to February 8. Charlie Jolley, Elliott Nevitt and Jay Spearing led the way. But nobody in the team has more than Kieron Morris' five goals. For the Stags, Jordan Bowery at least has just one fewer than Oates' seven.

Both teams need to find a striker, perhaps. But if you have goals from all over the team, managers say it is an advantage. Tranmere have been undone by revitalised Newport and Northampton in big scoring games in the past two weeks. Before that teams coming back to form to defeat them were Walsall and Hartlepool.

Mansfield are very much in form. While I don't expect results will let them keep third spot come Saturday teatime, I expect them to get a taste of it for a few hours at least. In the coming weeks, we will then really see the the colour of their metal.

Improving Rovers sniffing the top seven

Saturday, 15:00

Bristol Rovers 1.9620/21 v Harrogate 4.3100/30, the Draw 4.03/1

Bristol Rovers' victory at Crawley on Tuesday prompted the 2.35/4 early price offered on them to beat Harrogate to tumble past the marker at which I'll get involved (evens). Which leaves me thrashing around for another way to bet on this match. Both teams to score 'no'seems to fit the bill at 2.1411/10.

Could Bristol Rovers be peaking just at the right time of the season? They struggled early on but boss Joey Barton always seemed to have faith that they would come good (don't managers always say that, though?). It has to be credit to the board that they have understood that few relegated sides have instant success in League Two and stuck with this controversial character.

Patterns, again, are striking. The Gas lost at Newport last Saturday, after a run of six without defeat (four wins and two draws). Before that, they lost once, at Oldham, after a run of six without defeat (four wins and two draws).

So after winning at Crawley on Tuesday, they should be on another undefeated run. Harry Anderson will certainly be bullish enough to think, after netting in midweek for the fourth time in seven games, that the Pirates can bridge the two-point gap to the play-off places in the coming weeks. Top scorers Aaron Collins and Anthony Evans will no doubt think the same.

Can they defeat a Harrogate side who probably thought they had come through a bad spell only to lapse into a mediocre one? In 10 games, Simon Weaver's men have won just twice, drawing another four including their first two goalless matches of the season.

They remain capable of playing their part in thrillers, however, drawing 3-3 at Rochdale, losing 4-3 at Exeter and beating Bradford 3-1. Jack Diamond and Alex Pattison continue to make their mark up front but there's a bit of "second season syndrome" setting in, in their second EFL season. The going has gotten tougher. Opponents have worked them out. Barton seems tactically astute enough to do so.

Rovers, however, have kept five clean sheets in eight matches. It's taking a bit of a risk to oppose Harrogate scoring, but it could just be that Barton's men could stop them, with that sniff of the top seven in mind. Opta highlight that in their only previous League Two meeting, in October, the Gas kept a clean sheet, Nick Anderton providing the only goal for a victory.

Newport can sink Stevenage

Saturday, 15:00

Stevenage 3.211/5 v Newport 2.447/5, the Draw 3.613/5

After a ding-dong affair, in which Stevenage and Leyton Orient swapped goals in an eight-minute spell before the O's equalised very late, it would surprise me if the hosts could hold on to deny Newport victory.

Paul Tisdale's revolution could take time to work. A spell of three wins and two draws ended with January. Now they have three points from seven games and their battle to stay up resumes. Luke Norris and Elliott List, top scorers from the front of midfield, need to pull something out of the bag.

The trouble is they come up against a team in better touch and vying for a top three spot. The lure of automatic promotion is still in the hearts of some at the club who once led the division under Michael Flynn. Holding Bristol Rovers and winning is no mean feat. James Waite really enjoyed his first goal for the club on his first start, after six substitute appearances.

Striker Dom Telford might be pleased that the story wasn't all about him for once, having netted 25 times this season. Manager James Rowberry wouldn't mind who scores, as long as there are another three points in the bag.

A little upturn in away form will be needed, because the Exiles have not scored or picked up a point, as Opta point out, in two games on their travels.

But those games were against Northampton and Forest Green. They last lost three in a row in March 2020, the stats compilers say. Since their last away game, five home games have netted three draws and two wins.

Wellens has a tough task but can earn point

Saturday, 15:00

Hartlepool 2.56/4 v Leyton Orient 3.55/2, the Draw 3.412/5

Are Leyton Orient a little long in the betting now? After the anomaly of being odds-on at home for victory on the back of a long winless run (they lost that game, at home to Carlisle) Richie Wellens' new charges might feel hard done by here. The layers expect them to lose.

They have drawn their past two, showing spirit in 2-2 draws at Colchester and at home to Stevenage. However, those teams are scrapping as hard as the East Londoners for points near the foot of the table.

Hartlepool are in a far better place - mid-table - and have a strong home record. The last of their two defeats at Victoria Park was against League Two leaders Forest Green in mid-November. Since then, Graeme Lee's side have won three and drawn four at home.

Overall, they have one defeat in their past seven games, at Walsall two weeks ago. Having scored in all seven, they have well and truly got over the goal shyness which resulted in them not scoring in five of their previous six matches.

Recruiting Omar Bogle from Doncaster in January has worked out well. The forward has netted four times in eight games, taking the pressure off top scorer Luke Molyneux from midfield. It seems unlikely that Pools could still reach the play-offs. An FA Cup run to the fourth round seemed to take the wheels off their league form.

Wellens, who took Swindon up from this division, says he needs to get the "enjoyment" back for his players, who have slipped from seventh in early December to 20th after a 14-game winless streak.

It's not like they have been losing by much, either. Mostly by one goal and only twice by two. They just need to finish chances. Ruel Sotiriou has netted in consecutive games.

However, as Wellens has quickly pointed out, Aaron Drinan and Harry Smith both have double figures for goals, and Theo Archibald is in the top handful of players in League Two for assists. Maybe the new manager factor can earn them a draw.