League Two Tips: Back Forest Green on a roll

Visitors seem overpriced against drawing hosts

Carlisle United 3.55/2 v Forest Green Rovers 2.35/4; the draw 3.55/2

Being four points clear at the top and 4.216/5 favourites in the League Two winners' market seems to have had little impact on odds makers regarding Forest Green's price at Carlisle.

Is 2.35/4 to beat the Cumbrians at Brunton Park a juicy price then? After all, Opta point out that Carlisle are winless in three matches at home to Rovers, who beat Chris Beech's men twice last season.

But that's history of course. Opta add that the hosts are unbeaten in nine home league games and that their most recent run better than that was 11, ending in December 2016.

On the flip side, they have only won one of their home games this season (drawing three) and, as Opta are quick to judge again, Forest Green have four clean sheets in a row. It wasn't so long ago they last achieved five, being September 2019. That was under previous management, but Rob Edwards won't have ditched bad cultures.

The young manager will be hoping the squad which almost took Brentford the distance in the League Cup at the start of the season continues to show bravado. Jamille Matt (5) and Matt Stevens (6) already have more goals each than many strikers achieve by Christmas. Nicky Cadden three ensures the midfield is more than contributing.

Carlisle will want to atone for their 4-0 defeat at Sutton United (who are in form at home).They did score in the previous five matches, but having netted seven and conceded eight and were never involved in games with a difference between the sides of more than a goal.

A penchant for tightness evidently unravelled at Gander Green Lane, where Manasse Mampala was sent off. Will Brad Young get another chance to impress after the Aston Villa loanee scored in the Trophy in midweek? Jon Mellish has been rewarded for performances with a new contract, but the line-up which has brought goals for Tristan Abrahams and Brennan Dickenson might just be out-fought by flying Forest Green.

Stags could hold off Cooper's climbers

Mansfield 2.47/5 v AFC Barrow 3.412/5; the draw 3.412/5

Measurement of Barrow's progress is hard to chart. Mark Cooper is proud of their commitment, passion and attitude: All the things he would say after a good day with Forest Green. He had every reason to be delighted after Joshes Gordon and Kay earned a comeback win at Newport.

Manager Cooper also felt they could have won at Bradford the week before, instead of picking up a point. It is a huge positive that they have scored in six straight matches, Oli Banks and Offrande Zanzala also contributing goals.

Have Mansfield improved enough to stop the Bluebirds upward momentum? At least the Stags earned a first clean sheet of the season at Leyton Orient. That followed a home draw with Rochdale. Boss Nigel Clough has urged them to "push on" during two consecutive games at Field Mill.

Oli Hawkins says they can. It's not like they haven't been scoring (10 goals in nine games, but conceding 14) - Hawkins has three, as does Danny Johnson. But the idea of signing the latter in the summer was that he would kick on from his strike rate at Leyton Orient and Gateshead of the past. He scores 0.35 goals a game on average.

Opta tell us that Mansfield are winless in seven, but have drawn two in a row, while Barrow are hoping for back to back wins for the first time this season. That's enough to indicate a point each, in a division very much strewn with draws.

In-form Valiants and Orient to draw

Port Vale 2.56/4 v Leyton Orient 3.39/4; the draw 3.55/2

There might be only one solution when these two in-form sides clash: a draw. Based on Orient's game with Mansfield last weekend, that could be a goalless one at 10.09/1 https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.188242986.

However, I rather fancy that Kenny Jackett's men won't draw a blank two weeks running, having notched between two and four goals a time in each of their previous four matches. So do the layers, who make the 1-1 draw 6.05/1 and 2-2 4.47/2!

Mansfield were determined to gain their first clean sheet of the season and kick-start their campaign.

As Harry Smith has six goals already this season, and with Aaron Drinan plus Theo Archiblad chipping in regularly, second-place Orient will have no fear heading to Vale Park. They have only won once away this season though.

Whether their hosts will allow them to play freely is the question: Darrell Clarke's men have climbed to fourth on the back of four wins in five, losing a five goal thriller at home to Rochdale. They have not enjoyed the best form at home - two goalless draws and finally a win, against Harrogate in mid-September.

Jamie Proctor's four-goal background this season could inform us, while Ben Garrity also has three. I fancy over 2.5 goals, a clearly 'against the grain' bet, as it is priced 2.56/4, which I'll take half a point with the draw at 3.55/2.

Harrogate should be too strong for Latics

Oldham 3.211/5 v Harrogate 2.35/4; the draw 3.711/4

Am I showing my age that when I saw the headline "Will Smith to return" I first thought of the Fresh Prince of Bel-Air? Apparently the show is being remade - exciting! Anyway, the Harrogate defender, 22, was a mainstay in central defence for the first two years of his Sulphurites' career, but has barely featured this season.

A trip to Oldham, however, requires him, with the experienced Rory McArdle among the injuries Simon Weaver is trying to work through. "We value him and he's been training well," was the manager's message about a player who didn't even make the bench last week. Full back Lewis Page is also out.

Will this interrupt Harrogate's fine season so far? Jack Diamond's performance on the left flank was a rare positive from last weekend's goalless bore, the manager and other observers felt. Luke Armstrong (6) and Jack Muldoon (3) could probably finish chances had they been given any. One shot on target was all they had to show. But they did not rise to third spot by being goal shy, even if they have drawn two blanks in three games.

Facing Oldham represents a chance to score again - perhaps even match the two-goals-per-game average that the visitors have largely achieved.

Keith Curle won't need reminding how his team have struggled this season, not scoring in five of their nine matches. For all the occasional fuss over Dylan Bahamboula when the Latcis do well (and the fact that striker Jack Stobbs returns after injury), one goal in four home games against a side which regularly notches more than once hardly suggests the hosts can barricade the doors for 90 minutes.