League One Tips: Top two feature for Thursday's Xmas selection box

Posh out of form and a poor price for Thursday

Peterborough v MK Dons
Thursday 29th December, kick-off 19:45

Peterborough at 1.834/5 on the Exchange for Thursday's fixture against the MK Dons has to be filed under 'rank poor value', almost as bad as that Portsmouth price recently at odds-on.

At least Posh manager Grant McCann has scrapped the 4-3-3 system that wasn't working, and the wing-back formation that was used in a Boxing Day 1-1 at Charlton provided some encouragement. It suits Jonson Clarke-Harris too, he bagged the Posh goal and has been the carrying the side of late. However, they are down to eighth in the table, and nearly 20 points off the leaders. Jack Marriott is seemingly on his way too out of the club, as he was left out of the matchday squad altogether at the Valley - bizarre considering McCann described him as one of the best strikers in League One.

Posh's six goals conceded is one of the best defensive records in the third tier, and that prompts a look at the Under 1.5 and Under 2.5 markets, and that's an angle to go with two bets for a Bet Builder option, but I just cannot entertain a win price of around 4/6 for a side out of form, slipping down the table and without a win since October 29th. It's certainly one for layers.

MK Dons are far from great but they have won their last two League One matches with clean sheets in both (and two Under 2.5 games) and the 4.77/2 price is too big. That gives us the option of the Double Chance bet, and remember, Posh are a side that folds like deck chair when they concede.

Armed with the Opta stats, the hosts have ended the calendar year with a league win in just four of the last 39 years and only one of their last 13 (D6 L6), a 4-0 away win at Accrington in 2018. On home soil, they haven't done so since 1977 against Preston.

Mark Jackson was named as the MK Dons coach recently - a move that took a few by surprise and the former Leeds coach got his tenure off to the perfect start with a win on Boxing Day. Jackson was an integral part of the Thorp Arch coaching team and credits Marcelo Bielsa as a huge influence (like many), and it seems a good fit for the club. Finally.

KEY OPTA STAT: Peterborough United have won five of their last six home league matches against MK Dons (L1), winning their last two without conceding a goal.

Will Pompey ever score a goal?

Portsmouth v Ipswich Town
Thursday 29th December, kick-off 19:45

Having won 3-2 against Portsmouth in October, Ipswich Town are looking for a league double over Pompey for the first time since 2011-12, and the Tractor Boys look in good shape for a second festive victory for Thursday night's trip to the coast. They look a decent price too at 2.1011/10. Compare that to Posh's 1.834/5 and it's a no-brainer.

This bet is more to do with Portsmouth's lack of goals, something I've been banging the drum about for a while now, and they failed to find the net once again on Boxing Day in a 0-0 draw at Exeter.

Cowley was severely hampered by a sickness bug that has swept through the club, and several players featured despite being laid-low in a the run-up to the game. "It has been an ever-changing situation and not easy to manage," said Cowley post-Exeter.

They dominated in parts against the Grecians, but like so many matches laid bare before, and summed up perfectly by one Fratton Park tweeter - they seem to be allergic to scoring and haven't found the back of the net in their last four games. The problem for me is the creativity not the forwards.

Ipswich have no such problems, and if Plymouth lose and Town win, they go top and have no such worries on the scoring front as they have netted 22 times on the road and won seven. Indeed, their xG of 2.05 away and xA of just 1.14 makes them a reasonably sound bet for this one.

Kieran McKenna's team slammed Oxford 3-0 on Boxing Day and took advantage of Oxford sitting so deep they were almost in Norfolk. Oxford boss Karl Robinson said afterwards: "We've just been completely and utterly beaten in all areas of our game against the best team in the league."

If I cannot see Pompey scoring, which I can't, then Ipswich to win with a clean sheet or bets based on that has to be the way to play this one. Using Ipswich win and Both Teams To Score 'No' pays 3.14107/50 on the double. Adding Under 2.5 Goals for the treble pays a little over 3/1.

KEY OPTA STAT: Ipswich have won their final league game in the last two calendar years, beating Burton Albion in 2020 and Wycombe in 2021.

Pilgrims to keep progressing at the Theatre

Plymouth Argyle v Wycombe Wanderers
Thursday 29th December, kick-off 19:45

Plymouth's exceptional home record of W10 D0 L1 is on the line on Thursday with Wycombe Wanderers in town, and it's slightly surprising to see them at 2.26/5 for another Home Park win. I expect that price to come under a bit of pressure before kick-off and a lot of the Plymouth matches this season attract more liquidity on the Exchange than most in the division.

We're in a pretty good position with the Plymouth Promotion bet at 6.25/1, tipped in the summer for the ante-post preview, so that cheers my soul more than the Peterborough ante-post one.

The Pilgrims surprisingly went down 0-1 to Port Vale in early December, but have since collected seven points from three games and two clean sheets - and that's their metier - the clean sheet column.

Wycombe have won five of their last seven away league matches against Plymouth (D2) since a 2-1 defeat there in April 2004 according to Opta and are certainly a dangerous opponent (hence the price), but five clean sheets on terra firma should put us in a good position here. Indeed, their record was so good early on, they had kept four successive shutouts, only conceding goals (one each) to Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich.

It's now 50 points for the league leaders at the halfway stage, and they are finding different ways of winning matches - certainly away from home as evidenced by the recent 0-1 win, and they have strong options from the bench too. I'm quite a fan of how Steve Schumacher uses two 'No 10s' to create.

Midfielder Morgan Whittaker is also at home in the 4-2-3-1 Pilgrims formation, and his long-range shooting prowess is a real plus for the side - just like Scott Twine was last year for the MK Dons. Whittaker is on loan from Swansea and can be backed to Score Anytime at 13/5 on the Sportsbook, and he got the only goal of the game on Boxing Day at Cheltenham. It was a real moment of magic to seal the points three days ago from him.

With another bumper 15,000+ crowd at the Theatre Of Greens, I am quite confident of a home win for this one at 2.26/5 as Wycombe are better at home, and recent away matches have seen them struggle to create with a 0-0 and two 0-1 games. Unders looks the option too for Bet Builder plays, and this could be a similar test to the Cheltenham one as the Robins utilised the long-throw time and time again in a game of few chances.

Using the Plymouth win and Under 2.5 Goals for a Bet Builder play pays out a generous 4.67367/100 on the Sportsbook.

KEY OPTA STAT: Following a 1-0 win in October, Plymouth Argyle are looking to record a league double over Wycombe for the first time.