League One Tips: MK Dons out to shock Neil's under-fire Sunderland

Title showdown for a Friday night correct score punt

Rotherham United v Wigan Athletic
Friday 18th February, kick-off 19:45

The top two provide a stellar fixture for Friday night as Wigan travel to Rotherham for a potential title showdown. A win for either could have a big say in ante-post market as the Millers trade at 1.341/3 for the title, with the Latics six points behind and available to back at 4.03/1. Leam Richardson's side do have a couple of games in hand, so this is undoubtedly the biggest game of the season.

It really should be on Sky!

The hosts have been superbly managed by Paul Warne this term and he's already played down the significance and shifted the pressure on Wigan by saying they're are the best team in league and calling them a team of superstars.

Wigan aren't too dissimilar to Rotherham in the sense they like to stretch play with crosses whipped in, well organised and attack efficiently. Both can play with wing-backs, although the build-up has caused Warne to question whether Friday's opponents goes to three or four at the back.

They've only lost once since the end of October, and that was a recent 1-0 loss at Sheffield Wednesday - a defeat that ended a 13-game unbeaten run. They bounced back with wins against Charlton and Crewe and will need to produce their 'A' game for Friday against a team that have kept six successive clean sheets.

Rotherham were lucky to get a 2-0 win at Hillsborough, as they were outplayed and out-manouvered. It was their dogged defending and a switch at half-time that sealed the points, but it will give Richardson food for thought with ways of beating the leaders.

For the second-successive week the hosts are odds-against at 2.0621/20, although according to Opta, Rotherham have failed to beat Wigan in each of their last six Football League games (D2 L4), failing to score in three of the last four such games. However, they have only lost twice all season at the New York and have one of the best attacking records with just 13 goals conceded. Wigan have the second best away defensive record, which is why the Under 2.5 Goals is 8/13 on the Sportsbook. Once again, with those short prices, I think backing the 0-0 and 1-1 as Correct Score bets are more appealing.

The two featured against each other in August, with Wigan taking a 1-0 victory thanks to Will Keane's 90th minute winner. Keane is an important attacking option who plays the No10 role with aplomb. James McLean provides the width and pings in plenty of crosses, it's such a hard line to breach, it could be another low-scorer.

KEY OPTA STAT: Wigan have lost just one of their previous eight Football League trips to Rotherham (W5 D2), while the Latics have scored at least one goal in each of their last 12 such games there (23 in total - W7 D3 L2).

Dons are well-equipped in a potential low-scorer against Black Cats

Sunderland v MK Dons
Saturday 19th February, kick-off 15:00

Talk about a baptism of fire for new Sunderland boss Alex Neil. The week has not been without its fair share of news in the north east, as the loyal Black Cats fanbase are questioning the current ownership model following revelations new owner Kyril Louis-Dreyfus controls only 41% of the club, with the old guard from "Sunderland Till I Die" holding on to the majority. Rising anger has gathered momentum this week against the Madrox group, but also Louis-Dreyfus, which all plays perfectly into the hands of MK Dons.

The figures for Sunderland's home form is impressive with 11 wins, 11 goals conceded and a handy place in the table. But that doesn't tell the full story, and they were dreadful in the home defeat to Doncaster recently. The performance was so dire and woeful, the Chronicle ran with a headline calling them spineless. That shocker is in a run of four without a win going into Saturday, and they are poor favourites.

Indeed, they laboured at Plough Lane recently for Neil's first point as new boss, but they were outplayed by Wimbledon in the first-half and were subdued mostly until a second successive free free-kick in two games for Alex Pritchard rescued the point. But it's not a performance to back them by, and that defeat against Doncaster is still lingering.

Sunderland have won just one of their eight league games in 2022 (D3 L4), a 1-0 home win over Portsmouth under former manager Lee Johnson, so I am tempted to go in with the lay here.

Especially as the Dons are in a decent run - play-off form in fact with just one defeat in their last 11 and a better points-per-game average on the road than compared to home (1.81).

We drew a rare blank with Scott Twine on Saturday in the 0-0 with Ipswich, although the column got rewarded by going with the draw again at 3.39/4. I am still tempted to play on Twine in the Anytime Goalscorer market as he's a one-in-three midfielder and we can back at 15/8. His long-range ability is second-to-none. He's not as short in price as 39-year-old Jermaine Defoe, a signing that at least has given the supporters something to cheer about.

He was nullified, but MK Dons are being the nullifiers recently with five clean sheets and five goals conceded in their last 10 games. Under 2.5 Goals is an obvious one for first bet, and Dons Double Chance to get two running is the better option.

KEY OPTA STAT: MK Dons have won only one of their five Football League meetings with Sunderland (D1 L3), although that victory did come in this exact fixture last season, with Cameron Jerome and Scott Fraser netting in a 2-1 win for the Dons.

Shrews could be tamed again

Shrewsbury Town v Morecambe
Saturday 19th February, kick-off 15:00

Having barely written a thing about Morecambe for about three years, they feature once more for the weekend for a tricky trip to Shrewsbury. And the omens aren't good either according to Opta, as the Shrews have won each of their last two home Football League games against Morecambe, one more than they had won in their first four such games (W1 D1 L2).

They've conceded just 14 goals at home - which is comparable to Wigan in second-place, and they've been a fairly reliable team for the last two months - especially on terra firma, but their form is stuttering of late with far too many draws. Indeed, six of their last nine have ended up all-square, so backers at an average of 3.412/5 for the draw are well up.

Shrewsbury's last nine league games have seen just seven goals scored (three for, four against) since they won 3-0 against Fleetwood Town in December. None of these games has seen more than two goals scored.

It's a possible angle into this, as Town are struggling to put teams away, and those past nine matches for Shrewsbury have all hit the Under 2.5 Goals target. It trades at 1.715/7 for the weekend, which is a little too short. The draw could be the sensible play to trade as Morecambe have drawn four of their last eight, earning creditable results recently against Accrington and Lincoln.

KEY OPTA STAT: Morecambe have won one of their last 11 away League One matches (D2 L8) and are winless in their last six away games (D2 L4).