League One Tips: Hard to split the top two for crunch Hillsborough game

• Top two can net a draw bet

• Fergie v Fergie at New Lawn

• Alan Dudman has four League One bets for Saturday

Expect a 33,000 sell-out at Hillsborough

Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
Saturday 4th February, kick-off 15:00

Three winners from four for the column last weekend, but goodness me, I'll never complain about late goals again. Shrewsbury were 1-0 down and scored twice on 94 minutes and 98 minutes. I've been on the receiving end of those, and are never nice, but that was hard work for a 1.910/11 winner.

I was running scared from Big Dunc afterwards.

The big games keep on rolling in League One and this Saturday is no different with the top two facing off at Hillsborough and two of the best defences going head-to-head, and Wednesday have a chance to go top with three points due to their superior goal difference.

Darren Moore's side have a game in hand too on Plymouth. The Owls are 2.3611/8 in the Winner market for the league, with Plymouth at a generous 4.84/1 - and they've been underrated all season. A sell-out awaits in Yorkshire.

Tactically it will be a big call for Moore to change the back-three which has been so successful in recent weeks while Steve Schumacher has plenty of options now with Brendan Galloway and wing-back Mickel Miller both returning to fitness. Barry Bannan is the big player for the hosts, and he's been out with an injury in recent weeks but made his comeback in the FA Cup last week.

Pilgrims boss Schumacher has seen his side perform well against the big teams recently and said this week: "I thought we were excellent on the day against Derby County, we played really well at Ipswich and got a result there, so the lads should go into it with belief that they can go and compete."

And remember, Plymouth were a ridiculous price at around 5/1 for their trip to Ipswich recently and held them to a 1-1, and that's why I am going for what could be a tight game with neither wanting to give up too much ground. Again, the Greens are too big at 4/1 considering the quality of both teams. They've only lost once since August, so I cannot understand why they continue to be written off.

When the two faced each other at Home Park in October, two goals came inside the first seven minutes and Wednesday only had 41% of the ball. Sam Cosgrave hit the 90th minute winner for Plymouth then for the three points.

Plymouth are unbeaten in each of their last 12 league games on their travels (W5 D7), and will set a new club record for in the Football League should they avoid defeat at Hillsborough, and considering they have drawn seven times on the road this term, I like the idea of backing the draw for this. It's a tactic I've used in plenty of the big games this term, and Correct Score bets of 0-0 and 1-1 are the two to trade.

Wednesday have won each of their last five league games, while keeping a clean sheet in each of the last four, another shutout here would equal a club record in the Football League, previously doing so in April 1992, and that clean sheet column will be very handy going for the Bet Builder here. Playing the draw and Under 1.5 Goals pays out 8.84196/25 for a double, and while the 1.5 market is often risky, Wednesday have conceded just 11 times at Hillsborough this term. Their 1.15 xG against is impressive on home soil, while Plymouth are 1.40 xG in attack. Those numbers are low enough to give us a bit of confidence.

If you like playing the handicaps, Plymouth +1 looks a good price at 2.35/4, but it should be tight and the draw at the bigger price is the most appealing.

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth Argyle have won four of their last five Football League matches against Sheffield Wednesday, with the only defeat coming via a 4-2 loss in this fixture last season.

Posh to make it a perfect three for Fergie v Fergie

Forest Green Rovers v Peterborough United
Saturday 4th February, kick-off 15:00

The three month promotion push for Peterborough is still alive, and so are any ante-post tickets on the Blues to make the play-offs. And with Darren Ferguson in his 67th spell at London Road, and mastermind of so many before, who's to say he can't pull it off?

The Scot faces another fiery Scot on Saturday and Duncan Ferguson probably cannot believe his luck he didn't come away with the three points from last weekend in the 2-1 loss to Shrewsbury - losing two goals in 94 and 98 minutes. Not sure I'd like to have been in that dressing room, or maybe Ferguson has mellowed out.

Posh snapped up Kabongo Tshimanga in the transfer window, and I am hoping this is going to be good business. He scored a stack of goals for Chesterfield before injury, and indeed big moves were touted for the forward before he was struck down, but Peterborough have an uncanny knack of unearthing goalscorers from lower leagues, and maybe Tshimanga will give them they push they need - and take the burden off leading goalscorer Jonson Clarke-Harris who has led the line superbly.

The Posh manager said of his new arrival: "Kabongo will give us a good physical presence. He's not as tall as Jonson Clarke-Harris, but he's strong, quick and plays effectively on the shoulder of the last defender.

"He's an out and out goalscorer. His goalscoring record in the last three and a half seasons is the third best in all of the top five divisions in England and we are lucky to get him as there were others after him. He almost went to Birmingham in the summer."

He is 13/8 Anytime Goalscorer for Saturday and the 4/1 is quite appealing if he starts. As usual JCH is favourite in that market at 13/10 and his 17 from 32 this season is another good return so far.

Peterborough need to start winning games too on the road, but Fergie has come back with a lot of positivity since his return and his perfect two-out-of-two start. With seven losses on the road and 22 conceded, it's most certainly a problem that needs to be addressed, but he has changed the backline and the 1.9210/11 is probably about right for the weekend. They bossed the Portsmouth game for 65 to 70 minutes last Saturday and should have put the match out of sight despite a nervy ending for the 2-1 win.

Forest Green have signed Robbie Savage's son Charlie on-loan from Manchester United, but Big Dunc had a large squad of 26 when he arrived which has been trimmed, and it looks as though he'll play on the counter-attack judged on the Shrewsbury game last weekend. The shape was better apparently and more disciplined, but they have lost 10 at the New Lawn and have conceded a lot of goals. With JCH and Tshimanga in opposition, there could be a few goals.

KEY OPTA STAT: Forest Green have lost seven of their last eight league fixtures (D1), conceding twice in the 90th minute last time out against Shrewsbury - no side in League One in 2022-23 have dropped more points from winning positions than them (21 - level with Fleetwood).

New additions can boost Cod Army

Fleetwood Town v Burton Albion
Saturday 4th February, kick-off 15:00

Fleetwood had an impressive transfer window with two strikers of quality in Jack Marriott and Charlton Athletic forward Jayden Stockley captured on two-and-a-half year deals. Both were for undisclosed sums, and I imagine neither was cheap. Stockley is a good target man and adds physical presence while Marriott is a proven goalscorer that didn't get a run at Peterborough and now has something to prove.

Strikers of that calibre can only be found in Burton's dreams.

Cod Army boss Scott Brown feels he has a much stronger squad now (plus the addition of a centre-half) and wants to address the recent form. He said: "Our home form hasn't been great; we've played some good football but sometimes that doesn't mean you pick up the points you deserve, we need to make sure we get three points and start building on that as well because it's an important game for us. Last season, and the start of this season, home wins weren't great, so we've managed to get two strikers in to help us kick on."

Burton have won three of their last five league games (L2), as many as in their first 15 league fixtures under Dino Maamria (W3 D6 L6) and caught Oxford cold last weekend with a 2-0 home win. Although Oxford are a very funny side at the moment and are totally unpredictable - as are Burton themselves who were torn apart 5-0 by the worst team in the league Morecambe recently.

The hosts have drawn far too many games at home this term and just two wins all season and 11 goals scored is a dreadful return. But Stockley and Marriott will boost Brown's options no end and he might be a bit more attacking with a front two, especially with Marriott likely to play off the shoulder of Stockley.

The Cod Army haven't won a game since the turn of the year and their numbers on the xG front of 1.48 and 1.43 at home for and against predicts a potentially close game. Dino Maamria has brought in four new players but they have lost four of their last five away matches against Fleetwood in the Football League (W1), winning their last visit to Highbury Stadium 1-0 in October 2021. That's good enough for me.

KEY OPTA STAT: Fleetwood have lost each of their last three league games, while they're without a goal in each of their last two games; they last had a longer league run without scoring in February 2021 (run of four).