League One Tips: Big Dunc at Forest Green, but don't expect a win

• Ferguson's first game against Shrewsbury

• Dons for another blank

• Alan Dudman has four League One bets for Saturday

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Dons still struggling in front of goal

MK Dons v Exeter City
Saturday 28th January, kick-off 15:00

Tuesday night's tipping column really should have put us well in profit with my 0-0 prediction at 9.28/1 for the MK Dons and Shrewsbury match. MK had one shot on target and the Shrews had two - with the winner to make it 0-1 on 89 minutes. I spoke to someone who was at the game and said it was the same old story with Mark Jackson's team; nice football but they have nothing as soon as they get to the edge of the box.

Backing those correct score bets are good trades, but trades doth butter no P and L.

The Dons are at home again on Saturday and it's an opportunity once more to explore their lack of goals against an Exeter team who are outsiders at 2.9215/8. The hosts really shouldn't be 2.6213/8 as favourites here.

Buckinghamshire hasn't been a happy hunting ground for the Grecians as they are looking for their first ever away league win against MK Dons, winning none of their four visits so far (D1 L3). But this is a different animal these days they will be facing and their xG at home of 1.18 paints a rather sorry picture.

Exeter fare better with an xG on the road of 1.45 and have won four and drawn four this season when away, and they look a far better bet in the outrights, although another low-scoring game potentially means the draw is the most attractive to trade.

Indeed, Gary Caldwell's (pictured below) team have drawn four of their last eight in League One including three 1-1s against Sheffield Wednesday, Morecambe and Forest Green. The fact they couldn't beat the two strugglers pushes me towards the outright draw bet. The Grecians lost 2-0 at Fratton Park last Saturday, but looked the better side throughout. One or two poor refereeing decisions went against them too, but they were far from clinical over the 90 minutes and Pompey took their chances.

MK Dons have won nine of their last 11 league matches against sides newly promoted to the division that season (L2) and won seven of their last eight at Stadium MK (L1), which is a stat to bear in mind, and while Jonathan Leko is a good signing from Birmingham for the hosts, and he will offer more up front, chances again could be at a premium here.

The Bet Builder option of the draw and Under 1.5 Goals pays out 8.84196/25 on the Sportsbook, and Leko is 3/1 Anytime Scorer, but the Dons have failed to score in six games at home this term, and I cannot see that changing anytime soon.

KEY OPTA STAT: Exeter have won two of their last three away league matches (L1), although they lost at Portsmouth last time out. The Grecians haven't lost consecutive away league games since April 2021.

Big Dunc at Forest Green - who would have thought it

Shrewsbury Town v Forest Green Rovers
Saturday 28th January, kick-off 15:00

I don't think anyone had big Duncan Ferguson down for the manager's job at Forest Green Rovers, and the news this week caught me on the hop, and quite a few Evertonians too no doubt - a club where he is feted with hero worship status. It's a curious choice for the 51-year-old to take on a tough task of the League One bottom club, and Ferguson won't have encountered a team so poor in a glittering career both on the field and coaching.

Personally I think it's a bad move for the Scot, but I wouldn't say that to his face. I'm already looking forward to Big Dunc v Joey Barton. And Scott Brown.

The New Lawn Stadium was host to Ferguson's first interview alongside owner Dale Vince, and an awkward one at that when quizzed about the club's Vegan and meat-free policy. 'The earth is warming up, isn't it? So we need to all do our bit. Since I've come here, I'm sure I'll learn a lot more.' was perhaps not the interview Ferguson envisaged 20 years ago. The New Lawn is meat-free and indeed win-free at the moment. It's a tough gig.

Saturday's game will be far from easy, and for all the hoopla around the appointment, Shrewsbury are enjoying one of their best runs and they look good 1.910/11 shots for Saturday.

They are level on points with Peterborough (8th and 9th), and if Posh were playing Forest Green, they would be shorter in the betting.

Steve Cotterill is a grizzled old warhorse at this level and after a run of three straight defeats, Salop have recorded three straight wins with a 1-4 away success, a 5-1 home and Tuesday's 0-1 MK Dons three-pointer.

In terms of the bigger picture, Town are nowhere near play-off material. The loan acquisition of Crystal Palace's Killian Phillips kept Tom Bayliss out of the side in terms of starting on Tuesday, but it was Bayliss who popped up from the bench for his sixth of the season and the winner on 89 minutes. He was helped by some shocking MK Dons defending. "If we are going to get an opportunity in that area, I don't mind Tom Bayliss on it because his technique is probably Premier League," said Cotterill on Tuesday in somewhat praiseworthy mood.

Only Luke Leahy (6) has more home goals in all competitions this season for Shrewsbury Town than defender Matthew Pennington (5), who has scored in his last two appearances on home soil, and with Bayliss, all three are worth looking at in the Sportsbook Anytime Scorer markets to boost the price of a home win on a Bet Builder, as backing Forest Green away is a complete no-go. They have won just once all season and conceded 28 goals on the road. What has Ferguson let himself in for?

Leahy bagged a couple in Saturday's 5-1 Cambridge success, and he takes penalties. Carl Winchester plays at the base of midfield and Leahy and Phillips both playing as number eights - a 3-5-2 formation that does give them control of the middle of the pitch. That area should create a few chances for the hosts and they look a good bet this weekend.

KEY OPTA STAT: Forest Green have won just five of their last 30 league games on Saturdays (D9 L16) and no side has lost more League One games on Saturday this season than Forest Green (12).

Rely on Posh to take care of resurgent Pompey

Peterborough United v Portsmouth
Saturday 28th January, kick-off 15:00

I've picked out Peterborough twice recently, and on both occasions the pitch has been frozen. I'm chasing Darren Ferguson's second game in charge like an umbrella on a windy day.

Portsmouth have finally scored a goal (or two) and new manager John Mousinho has had quite an impact at Fratton Park since replacing Danny Cowley. They have netted a pair of 2-0 wins against Exeter and Fleetwood (on Tuesday) to push back into the play-off mix.

Striker Colby Bishop ended his goal drought and netted his 15th of the season in midweek and Pompey were reduced to 10-men too in the second half with a red card for Joe Morell. Ryley Towner has created a big impression since his inclusion in the side for the two wins, and shone on his full debut last weekend against Exeter. Mousinho has found a gem, and he's well stocked in wide areas now too - even Ronan Curtis played well against Fleetwood for once, a quality player that hasn't fired of late, but a move away from the club still looks likely in the summer.

In terms of price this weekend, Pompey do look underrated at 3.929/10, with the Posh at odds-on and 1.910/11.

I expect the visitors to stick with their 4-3-3 formation for Saturday as it seems to create more than under Cowley, while Darren Ferguson went back to basics for his first game in charge against Port Vale and started with a more balanced back four and kept things simple.

Peterborough United have won their last two home league matches against Portsmouth, keeping a clean sheet in both victories, and I think they can win this despite the run of Portsmouth, whose 0-2 success against Exeter was slightly lucky as the Grecians had the best spells of the game. Ferguson's team have lost two of their last three home league games (W1) after winning eight of their previous 10 on home soil (D1 L1), but I am not deterred.

Whether Ferguson will include Jack Marriott in the starting line up is the million dollar question, although the chairman Darragh MacAnthony has ruled out a loan exit by saying: "There has been plenty of clubs wanting to take Jack on loan, but that won't happen."

KEY OPTA STAT: Peterborough United have lost two of their last three home league games (W1) after winning eight of their previous 10 on home soil (D1 L1).

*Click here for more EFL tips with Ian Lamont's League Two bets

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