Midweek League One Tips: Keep faith with Derby to cover the handicap on Tuesday

• Alan had a 3/1 Under 1.5 bet on Saturday with Sheffield Wednesday

• Conor Hourihane features in Bet Builder selection

• Alan Dudman previews Tuesday night in League One with five bets

Can Cotterill continue his good record against MK?

MK Dons v Shrewsbury Town
Tuesday 24th January, kick-off 19:45

It's been a long time since Shrewsbury featured in the column, but from their last two matches, they seem to have morphed into Marseille from 1992.

In their two games they've beaten Burton 0-4 on the road and thumped Cambridge 5-1 on Saturday capped off by a brilliant Jordan Shipley goal, a lovely curling effort to round off a fine first-half.

The Shrews have moved into the top half of the table, and while I don't really see them as a playoff contender, they are still outsiders here by nearly a point for Tuesday night's trip to Buckinghamshire, and the most soulless of train stations.

The MK Dons have a new manager in Mark Jackson, and this looks a tough gig at the moment in charge of a team that have been poor.

The days of Karl Robinson and Russell Martin saw them regularly feature in the promotion hunt, and they passed the ball with joy. Jackson has to worry about staving off the threat of relegation before any of that fancy stuff.

Jackson has raided his contacts book from his Leeds days and signed Max Dean on a permanent transfer from Elland Road, and the young forward made his League One debut on Saturday with a very late appearance against Forest Green.

The 18-year-old scored 21 times for the Whites youth teams in three years, and could be pushing for a start on Tuesday evening.

Although thrusting a youngster into a relegation scrap is never a good idea. The Dons are 2.01/1 in the Relegation Market, a price that would have been unheard of under Robbo.

MK Dons have kept a clean sheet in each of their last two home league games (W1 D1), after none in their first 11 games of the campaign (W1 D2 L8).

The Dons last recorded three straight home league shutouts in September 2021, so it's a sign that Jackson is trying to shore up the back.

That prompts a look at a low-scoring game with the Under 1.5 Goals at 2.942/1 and 2.5 at 1.674/6 - both a little too short for me.

The hosts have had an odd run of fixtures of late; beating the awful Forest Green twice from their last five games, and in between they have faced Peterborough, Plymouth and a 0-0 with Lincoln.

The latter with the Imps is the one to tap into; an astonishing game that saw MK have 71% possession off the ball and create one shot on target. Lincoln only had two.

We've been playing a few correct scores recently, and that's an avenue I want to go down again. The 0-0 at 9.28/1 and the 1-1 at 7.06/1 look better value than playing odds-on for the Under 2.5.

And Shrews boss Steve Cotterill has only lost one of his previous eight Football League encounters with MK Dons (W4 D3), though that defeat came in this exact fixture last season (2-0). So it seems he is well versed in playing against a side that keep the ball for keeping the ball sake.

Saturday's win for MK against Forest Green was by all accounts a difficult watch with two poor teams, and while the visitors are flying, they've faced a couple of teams who are prone to conceding, and this is likely to be tighter, although the Shrews are big enough to consider for the Double Chance.

KEY OPTA STAT: MK Dons have lost just one of their nine home Football League matches against Shrewsbury Town (W6 D2), and won 2-0 against them at Stadium MK last season.

Hourihane a likely source for a Bet Builder pick

Port Vale v Derby County
Tuesday 24th January, kick-off 19:45

Another ruthless win for Derby on Saturday, and a big one too considering the close proximity of Bolton in the table.

Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Conor Hourihane sealed the 2-1 success against the Trotters and Warne has now overseen a remarkable 18-game unbeaten run - and it's all looking very Rotherham-like isn't it?

They are 2.245/4 for Tuesday night - which isn't a bad price considering how short Sheffield Wednesday are on the road at the moment, and the less said about Ipswich's price for Tuesday at home to Morecambe (1/5) the better.

Hourihane's goal capped off a wonderful flowing move, and some of their play was excellent at times.

The famous Warne "press and run" game was too much for the Bolton keeper, although Derby themselves played out from the back a little more than usual.

I backed Port Vale for last Monday's Sky game against Peterborough, and they were very poor.

Their two wins from five League One matches have been against Morecambe and Forest Green, so they are in a bit deeper here, and despite wining five at Vale Park this term, I'm not sure they'll be able to handle Derby and their high-energy game.

Vale's Saturday match was postpone due to a frozen pitch but Vale boss Darrell Clarke's words are still echoing from the Posh loss, as he said: "To be fair, the performance the other night wasn't a good performance.

So, we take that and we try to galvanise. But, knowing our supporters, and the way they have backed us and backed myself for the last 23 months, they will be ready to go in the next game, just like we will be."

Ellis Harrison and James Wilson both missed the Peterborough loss and that impacted Clarke's 3-4-3 as they did play quite a lot of the diagonal ball, and if they do that against Derby, the Rams centre-backs will deal with that all day long.

Derby are unbeaten in each of their last six away league games (W2 D4), while since Warne's first game in charge in October, only Sheffield Wednesday (18) have won more points on the road in League One than the Rams (16).

Althougj the draw column of four is slightly worrying, they are playing well and have conceded just nine on their travels all season - which is the second best defensive record behind Sheffield Wednesday (seven).

Derby have scored four, three, three and two in their last four games, so we can look to cover the handicap for this - especially with doubts about the hosts and the forward pair Wilson and Harrison. Derby -1 in the Vale +1 market is a massive 4.77/2.

If are looking for a Bet Builder with another Warne win, Conor Hourihane has scored in all three of his previous games, and the multiple on his to Score Anytime with a Derby victory pays out 7/1 on the Sportsbook.

Nathaniel Mendez-Laing scored at the weekend and he is 6.05/1 on the Bet Builder with an away win.

KEY OPTA STAT: Port Vale lost their last home league game against Peterborough, following a run of three straight victories, the Valiants last lost consecutive home league fixtures in May.

Rely on Wycombe to beat their old foe Oxford

Wycombe Wanderers v Oxford United
Tuesday 24th January, kick-off 19:45

Only three points separate Wycombe and Oxford, although the chasm in playing styles is far greater than that. Which evokes memories of the Sky TV stat for their play-off encounter when Oxford were ranked first in passing and all possession stats, and Wycombe were not.

Following a 1-0 win over Oxford United in October, Wycombe are looking for their first league double over the U's since the 2000-01 campaign under Lawrie Sanchez, but they have been inconsistent at home this term winning six, drawing three and losing four.

Their xG numbers are not impressive either at 1.88 and 1.51 against at Adams Park.

Oxford have an equally inconsistent record on the road, although strangely symmetrical at W4 D5 L4. The U's are 3.211/5 to win, but the draw looks more appealing given both have collected 13 between them in all games this season.

Karl Robinson was in full hyperbole mode on Saturday in the fog as his team beat Ipswich 2-1 at the Kassam. Never shy of talking up a win, he said: "The players' attention to detail out of possession was one of the best I've seen all season." One wonders why they are in 10th?

His formation switch to a 3-5-2 had a big impact on the game, and while they looked a good side for large chunks, they don't often back up a performance or a win, but they did hold Sheffield Wednesday to a 0-0 at Hillsborough.

Wycombe also beat Ipswich recently with a 1-0 success, and they had their game postponed on Saturday so could be fresher.

Using the Opta Stats here, the hosts lost their last home league game against Sheffield Wednesday; not since November 2021 have the Chairboys lost successive league fixtures at home.

Oxford, meanwhile, have won none of their last three away league games against Wycombe (D1 L2) since a 3-2 win back in April 2015, which leads me to the Wycombe bet at around 2.26/5.

KEY OPTA STAT: Oxford have lost only one of their last nine League One games on the road (W3 D5), since the start of October, only Plymouth have lost fewer games (0).