Alan Dudman is back in the League One hotseat, and he makes Crewe one of his best bets this weekend to beat Blackpool...
"Blackpool have conceded in every League One match this season and are currently LLLWL."
Dons look awful value once again at home
MK Dons v Gillingham
Unpredictable results and lack of clean sheets is not exclusive to just the Premier League judged on Hull's 4-1 demise at Fleetwood last Friday. Previously the Tigers hadn't conceded a goal in the league - so that was all rather puzzling. No doubt Oxford manager Karl Robinson was feeling the same as his team were beaten 3-1 by Gillingham despite playing some of their best football of the season.
The Gills got lucky, but they are most certainly overpriced again at 12/53.4 for Saturday's trip to MK Dons.
I can't agree on the odds of the hosts here. Taking 5/42.3 on a side that has yet to win a game all season represents poor value. We can match-up the Dons against Gillingham's impressive tally of 10 points, and it doesn't make sense.
This game could also suit the visitors who'll be happy to cede possession, but they tend to take their chances when presented. They've scored in every game so far bar the 2-0 defeat to Hull and their physical, direct approach might unsettle the MK Dons.
Opta also state that Gillingham are unbeaten in their last 11 league games away from home. I certainly wouldn't disagree with a poke on the win price, but the Kent club have drawn eight of those 11 games which means the Draw No Bet is the safer option at 7/52.40.
KEY OPTA STAT: MK Dons are winless in their last eight (D3 L5).
Black Cats can grind out victory, but look to Unders for profit
Swindon Town v Sunderland
Following a two-week international break for Sunderland, Phil Parkinson's side are back in action this Saturday, and as one of the League One heavy-hitters, they are sure to be popular at a price of around 20/211.95.
For a team that have gained eight points from their four games and three clean sheets, that's probably not a bad figure. However, I always have lurking in the back of my mind that they draw too many games.
Parkinson's mantra is "If you can't get three points, take the draw", and that bodes well for a play on the Under 2.5 bet here at odds of 4/51.82. All four of their games in the third tier have hit the target for that particular punt. They certainly lack a clinical edge, and armed with the two clean sheets on the road at Oxford and Charlton, we should have a bit of confidence in a low-scorer. The Under 1.5 trades at 12/53.4 if that is more of an exciting wager.
Swindon have won twice at home this season against Rochdale and Burton, but they really struggled to open up AFC Wimbledon recently in a 0-1 loss, and that was despite enjoying the majority of possession.
Town's boss Richie Wellens has also been linked with the newly-vacant job at Salford, which is an obvious distraction too.
KEY OPTA STAT: Sunderland are unbeaten in their last five league meetings with Swindon.
Alex a more attractive price than overrated Blackpool
Crewe v Blackpool
The stats for Blackpool backers or fans are not encouraging heading into this weekend. According to Opta; they have lost 11 of their last 17 matches, which added to their defensive horror show last weekend in losing to Ipswich 1-4, makes them a no bet here
I've given my thoughts on the Seasiders and opposed them twice this season as they are often overrated in the market - and bingo, we have exactly the same set-up again at 15/82.84.
There isn't much between their price and Crewe's at 13/82.66, and I'd much rather be with the home team as one of the bets this weekend as they have won 10 of their last 11 games as the hosts.
Recently they've picked up 2-0 and 3-0 wins against the MK Dons and Wigan and they have created lots of attacking opportunities. Indeed, versus Wigan they could have hit five or six as they were very sharp and crisp on the ball. They also looked good pressing high up the pitch and winning the ball back.
Blackpool have conceded in every League One match this season and are currently LLLWL.
KEY OPTA STAT: Crewe have only failed to score in one of their last 12 league meetings with Blackpool.
Alan Dudman's League One P&L
2017/18 to 2019-2020: +42.24pts
*all bets to a 0.5pt stake
Back Gillingham Draw No Bet @ 7/52.4 v MK Dons
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/51.82 Swindon v Sunderland
Back Crewe @ 13/82.66 to beat Blackpool