League One Football Tips: Wimbledon's defence gives hope in laying Burton

Glyn Hodges AFC Wimbledon manager
AFC Wimbledon deserved something from Tuesday's 1-0 loss at Hull according to manager Glyn Hodges

Alan Dudman collected a couple of winners in midweek with his League One selections, and he is backing two more and a lay for this coming Saturday...

"Tuesday's 1-0 loss at Hull backs that up, as they performed splendidly in a rearguard action and limited one of the title-chasing teams to few chances."

Lay Burton @ 2.245/4 v AFC Wimbledon

Donny can follow up statement win against the Alex

Doncaster Rovers v Crewe

Doncaster produced a statement victory in midweek with a 4-1 result against a previously unbeaten Ipswich, so now is the time to back-up that performance - which is often the Achilles' heel of League One teams. It was a win that caught me a bit by surprise, but that took their unbeaten run at home to seven - which is their longest since April 2019. Evidence that manager Darren Moore is doing a lot right.

Moore was impressed with his team's work off the ball on Tuesday night and how his players stuck rigidly to the game-plan. Notable performances also came from Southampton loanee Josh Sims and Skipper Ben Whiteman - who bagged a brace.

The hosts are priced up at 2.01/1, which are not bad odds considering their good start to the campaign. The Opta stats back up a punt on Rovers too, as they have won five of their last six home league matches with the Alex - winning each of their last three.

Crewe have endured a tough couple of away games so far; going down 1-0 in both the Hull and Sunderland fixtures. Alex boss David Artell admitted his team were outplayed by the Black Cats on Tuesday - describing Phil Parkinson's side as the best they have faced in the division so far.

This will present a good challenge for Doncaster as Crewe are a footballing outfit, who unfortunately were stymied in terms of their possession-game in midweek, but it's hard to ignore the hosts after such a big victory.

KEY OPTA STAT: Crewe have lost their last five away matches in Yorkshire since their last victory against Barnsley in 2015.

Dons can provide an upset at shocking value Blackpool

Blackpool v MK Dons

I admit I haven't been the biggest advocate of the MK Dons this season, and I painted an outlook as gloomy as the harsh architecture around Milton Keynes train station - but this is a game I am swayed by price.

However, there's a bit of a caveat here. The Dons haven't won away from home in 18 consecutive league games (D7 L11), and it's also the longest run of any team in the third tier since 2018.

But Blackpool are rotten favourites at 2.245/4, who simply don't justify that price. Manager Neil Critchley was unproven at this level despite his Liverpool U18 and U23 credentials, but that sort of football is very different to life down in the third tier. I've been against the Tangerines in quite a few of my columns this term as they always seem to be the wrong price.

Indeed, it's five losses out of seven now for Blackpool and with just four points and a position second from bottom, Critchley dare not lose to a fellow struggling team.

MK Dons like to play a bit of football and might have more of a cutting edge as they have scored on the road against Oxford (L3-2) Pompey (L2-1) and Doncaster (1-1) - all far superior to the Seasiders.

The visitors do have problems against crosses and set-pieces, but the hosts are in a very worrying run of form. The Dons at 3.65 are attractive, but we should use the extra insurance and play on the Double Chance at 2.26/5 on the Draw and Away result.

KEY OPTA STAT: Blackpool have lost their last three home league games; they haven't lost four in a row at Bloomfield Road since August 2014.

Another 0-1 could be on the cards for the Wombles?

Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon

Burton's 0-1 loss at home to Rochdale on Tuesday was a rather frustrating result for the column considering Northampton and Bristol Rovers both collected victories, and it's hard to enthuse about the chances of the Brewers as favourites at 2.245/4.

Too many players underperformed in midweek according to rookie boss Jake Buxton, and the fact they were limited in terms of shots is a huge cause for concern in preparation for this Saturday.

Wimbledon played to their strengths in gaining a stunning 0-1 victory at Fleetwood earlier in the campaign, and they matched that with another 0-1 at Swindon. The Wombles are never going to blow teams away, but they are hard to break down and can defend very well. Tuesday's 1-0 loss at Hull backs that up, as they performed splendidly in a rearguard action and limited one of the title-chasing teams to few chances.

Whilst Burton have never lost at home to the MK Dons according to Opta stats, this could be the time to oppose the hosts. They are certainly a laying price at 2.245/4 to have two running for you, or we can flip it round and play on the Double Chance with the Dons.

The Under 2.5 Goals looks likely at around 1.865/6.

KEY OPTA STAT: Burton have lost their last two home league games; they haven't lost three in a row since December 2017.

Alan Dudman's League One P&L

2020/21: -0.27pts

2017/18 to 2019-2020: +42.24pts

*all bets to a 0.5pt stake

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