League One Betting Tips: Posh and Plymouth can get us off to the perfect start

Alan Dudman
29 July 2022
4:00 min read

Grant McCann's Peterborough will be looking to make it three seasons on the spin as League One's top scorers

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Alan Dudman returns on League One duty for the season and he has three bets for the opening round of matches this Saturday...

"I like their signings in midfield and in Sammie Szmodics, there is plenty of craft to create for JCH - who hit 33 in 49 when Peterborough were last in the league."
Back Peterborough to beat Cheltenham @ 2.35/4

Accy can get their season up and running

Accrington Stanley 2.56/4 v Charlton Athletic 2.77/4, the draw 3.412/5

Accrington Stanley secured a second successive top-half finish - although a whole 12 points behind Portsmouth in 10th means they were trumped some way, made even more galling with the news that Colby Bishop has joined Pompey to boost their promotion hopes following the saga to Blackpool, a move that looked on then fell apart.

Minus Colby's one-in-three goal ratio, the hosts still look a bet here as their home record from last term of (W12 D6 L5) was almost as good in terms of number of victories as Bolton and champions Wigan.

Perennially overpriced in the betting, the 2.56/4 for the weekend is a bit more realistic but I fancy them to give Charlton a game here.

Incomings at the Wham include 22-year-old Enock Lusiama from non-league football and another young forward in Touray from Welsh Premier League side Haverfordwest.

Veteran Shaun Whalley has returned to the club from Shrewsbury and penned a two-year deal while Ryan Astley was the club's fifth summer signing at one stage when he joined on loan from Everton.

Ben Garner's new project at Charlton faces a tricky beginning, and the former Swindon boss has promised a brand of attacking football and play that the Valley fans have been starved of. Indeed, Garner has raided his old club with a brace of signings.

I've gone again with the Londoners in my antepost preview this year and the 7.06/1 price in the Relegation market is of serious interest.

Some of the football served up last term was poor once Johnnie Jackson's burst faded. Twelve away defeats and a massive 31 goals shipped on the road is not going to be fixed overnight, and I am far from convinced about Garner following his spell in this division with Bristol Rovers.

Accrington are unbeaten in their last four league games against Charlton (W3 D1), winning both meetings between the sides in League One last season and they look a solid bet for the kick-off.

The Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9010/11 is also of interest considering the rather loose play of Accy at times at the back - but they score and score plenty.

Indeed, 32 times last season they banked on the Over 2.5, and had an astonishing run last term with eight of their last nine. One of those included a 4-4 draw when they conceded two goals in injury time.

KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton have never won away against Accrington Stanley in the Football League, drawing two and losing one of their three visits.

McCann's Posh to be crowned the goal kings again, and it starts at Cheltenham

Cheltenham Town 2.915/8 v Peterborough United 2.35/4, the draw 3.613/5

Another of my pre-season picks for honours in the division lies with Peterborough, who start their new term from relegation out of the Championship with an away game at Cheltenham. A former Championship club at odds against looks good doesn't it?

In the past seven seasons at least one club that has come down to the third tier has managed to go straight back up.

One thing you get with Posh is goals, and are great for using the Over 2.5 at London Road, especially with Jonson Clarke-Harris - who has over a one-in-two record for Posh and performed well in the Championship considering the tough nature of that league.

I like their signings in midfield and in Sammie Szmodics, there is plenty of craft to create for JCH - who hit 33 in 49 when Peterborough were last in the league.

Grant McCann took Hull up as champions in League One, and his return (again) was a positive in their quest for survival. The Northern Irishman boosted their xG numbers last term from minus to plus following his swap with Darren Ferguson (again).

Remember, Posh have been the top scorers at this level in their previous two seasons in the division, and I don't see that changing. Posh have a doubt with key defender Nathan Thompson's fitness, but if he doesn't make it, expect young Benjamin Mensah to come in despite his inexperience to slot into McCann's preferred 4-3-3.

On the other hand, since their return to the Football League in 2016, Cheltenham haven't won their opening league game in any of their six seasons (D2 L4), whilst the last time they hosted Peterboroughin the Football League, the visitors ran out 6-3 winners.

According to Opta, Peterborough haven't drawn their opening league game in any of the last 20 seasons (W11 L9), losing each of the last three in a row. That's food for thought for layers of the draw again - as they would have been in clover for 20 years.

KEY OPTA STAT: Cheltenham are winless in their last three league games against Peterborough (D1 L2), though this is their first meeting since a 1-1 draw in April 2009.

Go Green again for a fast start at Home Park

Plymouth Argyle 2.0521/20 v Barnsley 2.77/4, the draw 3.55/2

It was a case of what could have been for Plymouth last term. A rattling fast start under Ryan Lowe saw them put themselves in the promotion picture. His exit to Preston, while understandable, saw a fairly smooth transition to rookie Steven Schumacher - Lowe's former Lieutenant.

Unfortunately, they ran out of gas and blew their play-off shot at the end of the season when seemingly in pole position.

Their striking ranks have been added to with Morgan Whittaker arriving from Swansea. He went for £700,000 from Derby at one stage and scored five in 20 for Lincoln on loan last term and gives Schuey a left-footed option in attack in a three or a two.

Bali Mumba looks another good signing that fits into the way Plymouth play. The wing-back is fast and direct and played 10 games at Peterborough last year on loan from Norwich.

Plymouth appear to have achieved their six transfer target list, and missed out on only one according to the boss.

Expect them to play with wing-backs and their good home record should serve them well. They won 14 at Home Park last season with an excellent defensive record of shipping just 19 goals - up there with the best.

When playing their opening game of a league campaign away from home, Barnsley haven't won since 1996-97 (2-1 at West Brom), drawing four and losing eight since then, and while it's hard to pin everything on that stat, I have no interest backing Michael Duff's side for this opener.

Duff performed well at Cheltenham, and without being cruel, it looks a cheap appointment for a club that self-admittedly needs to cover the financial blow of Championship money.

At least Duff knows the division, but he has to do it minus their strikers Carlton Morris and Cauley Woodrow, who both have preferred the climes of sunny Luton and Bedfordshire.

Herbie Kane will be missing for six weeks for the Tykes, which helps our cause in backing the hosts to get off to a perfect start - although they have to buck an Opta stat here.

Barnsley have won three of their last five away league games against Plymouth (D1 L1), as many as in their first 26 visits to face the Pilgrims (D7 L16).

KEY OPTA STAT: When playing their opening game of a league campaign away from home, Barnsley haven't won since 1996-97 (2-1 at West Brom), drawing four and losing eight since then.

*Click here to read Alan's League One antepost preview for the season ahead