Alan Dudman made a small profit with the MK Dons last weekend, and he's with them again alongside Plymouth for Saturday's batch of League One bets...
"Their home record is atrocious this term with just one solitary success, so it's totally understandable that Plymouth are in here as the shorter of the two at 2.1411/10."
Greens and goals on the menu for Spotland
Rochdale v Plymouth Argyle
Saturday 20th February, kick-off 15:00
Laying 3.412/5 shots is a brave thing to do, as you need to be right the majority of the time, and taking on teams at that sort of price will be music to the ears for those that want to oppose Rochdale this weekend - a team that simply never win.
Their home record is atrocious this term with just one solitary success, so it's totally understandable that Plymouth are in here as the shorter of the two at 2.1411/10.
Plymouth are unbeaten in their last eight matches and have collected some excellent away triumphs of late including results at both heavy-hitters Portsmouth and Sunderland.
To add to the gloom for Dale fans, and something we have tapped into on a regular basis is the "goals against" column. A whopping 31 at home has seen some goal frenzied games since the turn of the year with a pair of 3-3's, a 4-4 and a 3-4. Keeping clean sheets seems akin to alchemy at the moment at Spotland, and I think we can back the Both Teams To Score bet with a bit of confidence at 1.75/7. It's now 58 goals in total Rochdale home games so far from both sides.
I like the Plymouth win too so we use the Same Game Multi option here and throw in BTTS with Plymouth to win which pays out a 3.65 double on the Sportsbook.
KEY OPTA STAT: Rochdale have just one win from their last five matches with Plymouth (D2 L2).
Imps will be too strong for hapless Wigan
Wigan Athletic v Lincoln City
Saturday 20th February, kick-off 15:00
Lincoln have been described by many as the best team in League One season, an obvious thing to say as the table-toppers, but many opposing manager has commented on what a good side they are and how tough Michael Appleton's team is to play against.
Backers of the Imps have been stung though in their two most recent games with draws against Accrington and Hull. In both, Lincoln haven't quite been consistent enough over the 90 minutes for a win. Appleton also blooded a couple of new signings recently in the Accy game to give players a rest.
I rarely include Wigan in the column as they are somewhat wild and the prices are always a complete mismatch. They are 6.411/2 here, and they generally tend to be around that price for every game. They've suffered some big losses at home recently, and like Rochdale, clean sheets are somewhat anathema to them. They are one win from eight and lost on Wednesday 0-5.
Lincoln are short, very short at 1.75/7, but they have won more games on the road than any other team this season and are so well drilled, I'd be very surprised they didn't pick up the points here. Gobsmacked in fact.
KEY OPTA STAT: Wigan have lost each of their last three home league games - conceding 13 goals in the process.
Northampton without Curle, goals and wins
A run of just one victory in 11 games recently saw Keith Curle lose his job as manager at Northampton, with the local press describing them as shot-shy and win-shy. Perhaps not the best combination.
Their last win came back at the end of December but the biggest worry is the lack of goals - they've failed to score in a massive 10 games from their last 12. A switch in formation to a 4-3-3 recently was a positive. But they don't need a change in formation at the moment, they need Marco Van Basten.
We've been siding with the MK Dons a few times recently as they are much improved and fast becoming one of the best footballing sides in the league. Their passing style is too much for some opponents, and when they cut out conceding the early goal, they are pretty good. We gained a good result with them on Saturday on the DNB at Hull - winning 0-1 with a fairly complete performance. In fact, that was an excellent game and they kept out one of the best front threes.
They've really turned the corner now and their form of WWDWLW means we have an understandable price of 1.654/6 for the hosts. Of course it's very short, but Northampton are awful. Backing the hosts and Northampton not to score can be used in the Same Game Multi - with a double paying out 2.34.
KEY OPTA STAT: Northampton are winless in their last eight matches and have failed to score in seven of those.
Alan Dudman's P&L
League One 2020/21: -2.84
FA Cup 2020/21 (1pt): +12.42pts
2017/18 to 2019-2020: +42.24pts
*League One bets to a 0.5pt stake