League One Betting Tips: Charlton still poor value with Derby in town

Derby can take advantage of poor value opponents

Charlton Athletic v Derby County
Saturday 6th August, 15:00 kick-off

Derby County were up and running on the opening day of the season last week as they scraped a 1-0 victory over Oxford United, a win that no doubt settled the nerves thanks to summer signing Conor Hourihane and his expert finish. U's boss Karl Robinson bemoaned afterwards that he is a Premier League player in League One.

It's all been a bit hectic for Liam Rosenior in the Midlands hotseat, and I'm old enough to remember his dad Liam, who was a bit of a boyhood hero of mine with the old Avco shirt at my club West Ham - and the rookie boss made his 13th summer signing this week as Everton winger Lewis Dobbin has sealed a season long loan.

Oxford will no doubt be a play-off contender again, so it was a good three points in front of a huge 31,000 Pride Park crowd. It was rather interesting that Rosenior mentioned the players are still getting to grips with his style of play - which he admitted is quite complicated.

Eighteen-year-old Charlton substitute Miles Leaburn had all but done enough to give the Addicks the points last weekend with a late goal at 2-1, but Accrington, so often a team with goals in stoppage time, equalised on 96 minutes. Leaburn is the son of former Charlton legend Carl, and hopefully the Londoners have unearthed a gem, but they faced a bit of a barrage by Accy.

It looks as though Charlton will be going with a 4-3-3 under Ben Garner, and his attacking brand won't be easy against some of the heavy hitters .

I think Charlton look a little too short here at 2.829/5, and the market on Thursday could barely split them, with the draw priced at 3.211/5, and as the Rams were slight outsiders, we can play them win, or just use the Draw No Bet with the away side.

According to Opta Stats, Derby have only failed to score in one of their last 12 league meetings with Charlton, doing so in a 3-0 defeat in their last visit to the Valley in October 2019, but it bodes well that they dominated possession (nearly 60%) against a ball retaining side such as Oxford. A clean sheet led by Curtis Davies (pictured below) was another plus.

Derby to win with James Collins to score first pays a healthy 10.94497/50 using the Sportsbook Betbuilder, and throwing in Conor Hourihane to score last for a treble with those two pays 132.0131/1.

KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton have won just two of their last 12 league games against Derby (D3 L7), though they did win the last time they hosted the Rams (3-0 in October 2019).

Promotion hunting duo can gain us a profit with the draw

MK Dons v Sheffield Wednesday
Saturday 6th August, kick-off 15:00

Both of the big guns in League One, MK Dons and Sheffield Wednesday started with low-key results last Saturday, although the Yorkshire club are still favourites in the Winner market at 5.24/1 for the title.

Fisayo Dele-Bashiru scored an opening day double in the thrilling 3-3, and he's a big price for Anytime Scorer on the Sportsbook at 7.06/1, and with the Owls, it's certainly a team that will have goals in them. However, judged on Saturday, they've got goals against them too as their defending at times in the second-half was bordering on chaotic.

MK Dons suffered a 1-0 loss at Cambridge - one of the more surprising results of the weekend, and in typical Dons fashion, they had nearly 70% of the ball and yet failed to score. It's the nagging doubt with them this term with how they are going to replace Scott Twine's goals.

They were fairly risk averse at the Abbey, and lacked a bit of intensity. They looked very much like a team that included nine debutants, and I get the feeling both sides will take a while to settle, more so MK. Sheffield Wednesday won both league meetings with MK Dons last season, having won just two of their first eight against them in the Football League (D5 L1), but I am slightly wary of backing them outright.

For that reason, I am happy to play on the draw for this one as the outsiders at around 3.412/5. Wednesday were held eight times on the road last term and had a record of F30 A32, and it could be a case of both not quite hitting their straps in this early stage.

KEY OPTA STAT: Sheffield Wednesday have lost just one of their last 12 league games (W7 D4), going down 1-0 at Wycombe in April.

Jonson can paint another picture perfect win

Peterborough United v Morecambe
Saturday 6th August, kick-off 15:00

One victory in, and Peterborough's dramatic 2-3 at Cheltenham has seen their title price contract from 13.012/1 to 9.08/1. A good trade if ever there was one - I wish it was that easy every time.

They were 2-0 down at Whaddon Road last week, but a triple substitution from Grant McCann and a tactical tinker from a 4-3-3 to wing-backs worked wonders, and two goals from the machine that is Jonson Clarke-Harris nabbed the points. A great comeback. And a winning selection on the Posh from last week's column.

At the other end, another Posh youngster made waves with 19-year-old keeper Lucas Bergstrom pulling off a couple of outstanding saves to keep the Blues in the game.

Goals will be coming again from Posh this term, although the news that Sammie Szmodics going to Blackburn was a bitter pill for the ante-post bet. They'll miss him. I'll miss him too, and fine player who was great with the fans.

Posh are far too short at 1.594/7 for the win, but I am tempted to play Jack Marriot and Clarke-Harris in the goalscorer markets. Marriot impressed greatly when he came on last week and could be pushing for a start, he's 6/4 Anytime Scorer, and Clarke-Harris First Goalscorer is the bet I like - and he does take penalties.

You can use JCH and the Posh win in a Sportsbook Betbuilder that pays 5.95/1.

KEY OPTA STAT: Only Crewe (9) won fewer away points in League One last season than Morecambe (13), while the Shrimps conceded a league-high 53 goals on the road.