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Charlton look worthy of short price this weekend
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Crewe and Magpies feature for goals again
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League One
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Cambridge United have won just one of their last nine league meetings with Cheltenham (D3 L5), a 5-0 away win in December 2021, so their 13/102.30 price in the outright match odds or the 90 minutes price of 6/52.20 are both far from attractive.
Cheltenham's worries are obvious as they are without a win at home, and their lack of goals is the albatross hanging around their necks and we have to focus and zone in again on the low goals here.
The U's themselves are hardly prolific either, with just four in five, with three of those Under 2.5 Goals.
Cheltenham are winless in their last 13 league matches (D3 L10) - the longest current run in English football's top four tiers. They did avoid defeat in their last outing, however, drawing 1-1 at home to Derby.
KEY OPTA STAT: Cheltenham Town completed a league double over Cambridge United last season, never before winning three in a row against the U's in the Football League.
I'm still to be convinced about Michael Appleton at Charlton since replacing Dean Holden, it was an easy appointment and one that lacked any thought, but they are unbeaten in five and have been scoring plenty at home of late.
They hammered Exeter 4-1 and breezed past Wycombe 3-1 at the Valley, while Reading are faring less well.
Indeed, the Royals are in the bottom three and have lost all six of their away games so far - scoring a paltry four and have lost their last three on the road 4-1, 3-1, and 2-1.
Reading have lost their last two games in League One (v Northampton and Leyton Orient), while they haven't lost three in a row outside of English football's top two tiers since October 1999 (3), and their lowest xG figure home and away is 1.08 for on the road. It's hard to see them picking up the points.
KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton are unbeaten in their last six league matches (W3 D3), with five of those coming under current boss Michael Appleton (W2 D3). The last time they had a longer unbeaten run in league competition was in March-April 2021 (a run of 10).
Stevenage were looking good at one stage, but Steve Evans' team are wobbling with three losses in five, and while they are more of a force back at home, Vale look overpriced here to cause a surprise, but they are out of form.
The visitors have lost their last three league games without scoring a single goal - they haven't lost four in a row in league competition since November 2020 (a run of five defeats), so that's a slight worry, but they have beaten Oxford and Charlton on the road this term.
Port Vale have won just one of their seven previous Football League visits to Stevenage (D3 L3), a 1-0 victory in January 2020 and that matches up poorly with Stevenage - who have only lost one of their last 10 home league games (W5 D4), with their only defeat in this run coming against Oxford last month.
KEY OPTA STAT: Stevenage last faced Port Vale in the league in February 2022, losing 2-0; they have never lost consecutive Football League meetings with the Valiants before.
League Two
Mansfield produced the performance of the season last week in front of the Sky cameras with an astonishing 1-4 win at Notts County, a statement victory that certainly puts them in the mix for the title.
Nigel Clough's team are still unbeaten in the league and their defence is supreme at home - as they've conceded just two all season at Field Mill.
Forest Green Rovers have lost each of their last three away league games, while they haven't lost more in succession on their travels in League Two since January 2018 (6) and are hard to fancy here as they've recently lost six on the spin.
Along with Portsmouth, Mansfield Town are one of just two sides yet to lose in the EFL this season (P13 W5 D8); since League Two began in 2004, the only sides to have a longer unbeaten start to a season in the division are Wycombe Wanderers (21 games in 2005-06 & 18 games in 2008-09) and Carlisle United (15 games in 2016-17).
KEY OPTA STAT: Mansfield have only lost one of their five previous home games against Forest Green in League Two (W2 D2), although they are winless in the last three such matches (D2 L1)
Notts County's league games this season have produced 53 goals (28 for, 25 against), the most of any EFL side in 2023-24, and backers of the BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals have been cleaning up this term. Although surprisingly their xG and xA figures are not out of this world - at 1.27 and 1.30 on the road.
However, Macaulay Langstaff has eight in 13, and David McGoldrick six in 13, and it's one of the more potent strikeforces around.
Gillingham have lost just one of their last 10 Football League home games against Notts County (W8 D1), with this their first since a 3-1 win on the final day of 2014-15 in League One, but they are far from a side with goals with F7 A6 so far, although the large chunk of that was under Neil Harris.
Harris was sacked by chairman Brad Galinson, who is heading back to England next week to speak with managerial candidates, seems to be craving the more possession based game. It will be hard to do that against the Magpies.
KEY OPTA STAT: This will be only the third season in which Gillingham and Notts County have faced in the Football League's fourth tier, after 1959-60 and 2008-09.
A real top of the table clash awaits with fourth placed Crewe taking on table toppers Stockport next week, but beforehand, Crewe can continue their goals run against out of sorts Crawley who have lost their last two.
The Alex have lost just one of their last eight league games (W5 D2), although that was their last away game (4-2 at Salford), but their xG numbers have been impressive with 1.39 and 1.54 on the road.
Crawley have lost seven of their last nine league meetings with Crewe (W1 D1), although they did draw the most recent meeting - 2-2 in February last season, and I like that angle of the goals with either BTTS or the more daring Over 3.5, as Crawley have shipped a massive 14 on the road.
KEY OPTA STAT: Crewe have only lost three of their 18 previous Football League games against Crawley (W10 D5), avoiding defeat in their last five (W4 D1) since a 3-0 defeat in November 2018.
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