Andy Robson's Saturday treble takes in League One and National League action in England and a Scottish League One fixture that pays out at just over 4/15.00 if successful...
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Saturday ACCA is 4/1 on Betfair
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EFL, National League & Scottish League tips
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All games kick-off at 3pm
My treble this week takes us to different tiers of the football pyramid across England and Scotland. From the top of League One, all the way to the bottom of the Scottish League One, we've landed on three picks ahead of this Saturday's 3pm fixtures.
Leg 1 - Portsmouth v Oxford
Tip: Portsmouth Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1/12.00
Several factors align to make a Portsmouth win a strong fancy.
Portsmouth's recent home results encourage both goals and a home win. Pompey have gone 4-1, 3-1, and 4-1, in their last three at Fratton Park. Taking a wider scope of matches, they have won six of ten and have a positive xG differential of 0.4xG across their last ten. Only one of those matches went under 1.5 goals, with Portsmouth themselves creating at least 1xG in all of those matches.
John Mousinho's side don't yet appear to be feeling any pressure about the run-in and the potential of securing promotion over the next few matches, certainly not at home. Indeed, with their main rivals faltering, there is a real opportunity to build up a substantial margin of points, currently seven back to Derby and Bolton, to build up enough of a cushion to further lessen the pressure.
Since Des Buckingham was appointed Oxford manager his team have conceded the highest xG of any team in League One. They have continued to create chances at a good rate, meaning that they have continued to play at at least a lower mid-table level, but it is a struggle for them to maintain their play-off berth with this current level of performance.
Oxford have lost the xG battle by over 0.5xG in four of their last five away matches as well, which adds to the case for Portsmouth to win this match with a degree of comfort.
Leg 2 - Dagenham & Redbridge v Altrincham
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/61.67
There has been an abundance of goals across Dagenham and Redbridge's matches this season, with an average of 3.6 goals being scored per league game. This has been apparent in the host's recent home fixtures, in which an average of 3.5 goals have been scored per game.
Ben Strevens' side have looked strong offensively, scoring an average of 2.33 goals per match; however, Strevens will be concerned with the fact that his side have failed to keep a clean sheet in all of their last six games on home soil.
Wherever Altrincham have gone, goals have seemed to follow this season, with their league matches seeing an average of 3.21 goals per match. Despite a blip in form, Phil Parkinson's side have shown promise going forward in recent away matches, scoring an average of 1 goal per game; however, they have looked vulnerable at the back, conceding at least twice in four of their last five.
Three or more goals have been scored in seven of Altrincham's last nine, and I expect a least three goals to fly in here.
Leg 3 - Edinburgh City v Cove Rangers
Tip: Cove to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 3/51.60
Since Edinburgh City were hit by a financial crisis in December that forced them to rebuild their team with young and inexperienced players during January, there have been two virtual certainties in their matches: they will lose and their matches will produce at least three goals.
Edinburgh have lost 10 of their last 12 league matches and in these games have conceded at least two goals on 11 occasions. Only one of these fixtures did not yield at least three goals in total, which was a 1-1 home draw against a poor Queen of the South team.
Cove Rangers are unlikely to be as forgiving as the Dumfries club. Indeed, when these sides met two days before Christmas, the Aberdeen club registered a thumping 7-2 victory - the heaviest defeat that Edinburgh have suffered.
Since then, conceding three has been par for the course for the Citizens, although they were defeated 4-0 away to Stirling Albion last weekend after being reduced to 10 men early in the second half.
Cove have not been in the best of form lately, although they did beat Annan 2-1 at home last weekend. And in any case, it has mattered little how good or bad the form of Edinburgh's opponents has been of late, so comprehensively have they been outclassed.
Paul Hartley's side have never previously won at Meadowbank, drawing 2-2 at the venue in September, but that should all change in this encounter - and quite emphatically so.
You can browse all the expert football tips for an enjoyable weekend of punting on my website, Andy's Bet Club, along with some of the most sophisticated betting resources in the industry. My website has Opta-powered bet builder stats that can shine a light on the value in the market.
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