EFL League One & League Two

EFL Midweek acca: Back NTT20's 37/1 fourfold in Tuesday's full slate of fixtures

Derby manager Paul Warne
Paul Warne's Derby have won 12 of their last 17 games

EFL afficionado Ali Maxwell from Not The Top 20 is back with a midweek acca with in Tuesday's League One and League Two fixtures.

  • Exeter have only scored ten goals in their last 16 home games

  • Newport have won four games in a row

  • MK Dons have won 11 of 16 games under Mike Williamson

Leg 1 - Derby to beat Exeter

Exeter have won four of their last five league games, beating some good teams in that run. Although Derby conceded a late equaliser to Shrewsbury on Saturday, they've won 12 of their last 17 league games.

The Rams are so strong in all areas of the pitch - with plenty of experience mixed with the skill of Max Bird and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and the speed of Tom Barkhuizen and Corey Blackett-Taylor.

Exeter's patchy home record (5W 5D 6L), scoring only ten goals in 16 home games, points us towards a Derby bounce-back win.

Leg 2 - Newport to beat Notts County

The quality of Notts County's left wing-back Jodi Jones has been papering over some serious cracks in the last few months - Jones has picked up ten assists and two goals in County's last 11 matches, but they've still lost more than half of those games.

For Newport, it's four league wins in a row. They're showing that a huge FA Cup tie against Manchester United doesn't need to be enjoyed at the expense of your league form. In fact, it's given them belief and momentum, Saturday's 3-0 win at Walsall showed an excellent gameplan, executed brilliantly.

Graham Coughlan has a group of players that are suited to his style in and out of possession, and have star quality up front with Will Evans and Seb Palmer-Houlden. Quick, physical and deadly, the front two are the worst possible opponent for a Notts County backline that take risks with their passing and leave themselves exposed.

Notts may be the bigger club with the bigger budget, but right now it's Newport who are flying.

Leg 3 - Colchester to beat Grimsby

With a 1W 3D 1L, Colchester's improvement under Danny Cowley hasn't yet been reflected in victories, but the stats and the eye test demonstrate a clear uptick in performances. They've comfortably won the shot count in four of those five games, and if it wasn't for a few shocking goalkeeper handling errors, they would have three points more.

So it's a Col U side playing with increased quality and confidence that host Grimsby. A long trip down for The Mariners with plenty to think about. Winless in the first five games of 2024, they've conceded 16 goals in that spell.

These teams are level on points, and currently occupy the two places immediately above the relegation zone. With a seven point gap to 23rd, there's a semblance of comfort for now. But we're backing a home win to underline Colchester's positive development under Danny Cowley.

Leg 4 - MK Dons to beat Bradford

Just as Bradford fans had entered full meltdown over the team's eight game winless run, they mustered an incredible away win at Wrexham.

But playing at Valley Parade, The Bantams struggle for energy and creativity, and their kryptonite seems to be technical, possession-based teams such as Notts County, Swindon, Crawley and their opponents MK Dons, who beat them 4-1 in the reverse fixture.

MK Dons have won 11 of their last 16 league games under Mike Williamson and, if they can find their rhythm early here and keep possession, the home crowd will start to get restless. An away win at better than 2/1 feels generous given the quality and form of the two teams.

Back Derby, Newport, Colchester and MK Dons to win @ 37/138.00

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Championship Opta Stats: Twelve tips for the midweek matches

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