EFL League One Preview: 11/4 Bolton top Not The Top 20's Season Predictions

• 11/43.75 Bolton backed to win promotion

• 2/13.00 Oxford tipped for top six challenge

• 9/43.25 punt on Cambridge to go down

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1st. Bolton Wanderers

Bolton are 6/17.00 to win League One

Football trends are rarely linear but with Bolton Wanderers there are clear reasons to bet on the continued upwards trajectory provided by Ian Evatt and those running the club. Year on year improvement saw them finish fifth and, win the distraction of their successful Papa John's Trophy campaign, somewhat running out of steam.

With some exciting attacking additions - Carlos Mendes Gomes particularly - another year of improvement will undoubtedly see them get back to the Championship.

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2nd. Derby County

Derby are 6/42.50 to win promotion

With Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday departed for the Championship, Derby are unquestionably the biggest club at this level. That comes with perks and pressures for Paul Warne. He's built a squad full of recognisable names from the last few years of Championship and League One football, but with that come high expectations.

If Warne can do a similar job to the one he did with Rotherham in 2021/22, Derby should muscle their way to promotion. How they respond to the pressure of favouritism is key.

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3rd. Oxford United

Oxford are 2/13.00 to finish in the top-six

It is very easy to see Oxford United challenging at the top of League One, if you can subscribe to the theory that last season's tumultuous campaign was an aberration. The calm leadership of Liam Manning seems the perfect fit, and he's built a style and a team with a high ceiling if they can hit the ground running.

A midfield of Marcus McGuane, Josh McEachran and Cameron Brannagan can control games, and this is likely to feel more like the Oxford United you'll remember being a Top 6 candidate for a number of years before 2022/23.

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4th. Blackpool

Blackpool are 6/42.50 for a top-six finish

Neil Critchley is back at Blackpool and the last 13 months can be forgotten. Last time at this level, Critchley masterminded promotion by building a cracking team that were extremely solid defensively and it seems clear that he's going for a similar approach - the squad looks strong at the back and in midfield which gives them a solid base.

Their ability to be a constant attacking threat will dictate whether they fight for the title or settle for the Play-Off picture.

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5th. Charlton Athletic

Charlton are 7/42.75 for a top-six finish

Charlton have yet more new owners, and they seem keen to back manager Dean Holden in the transfer market. Panutche Camara, Terry Taylor and Alfie May are signings that leap off the page, and it's a squad that looks strong on paper.

Has Holden got a strong hold on things? That is the key question. If so, Charlton should challenge.

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6th. Portsmouth

Portsmouth are 11/102.11 for a top-six finish

With Pompey fans getting more and more restless at League One level, there's always pressure building at Fratton Park. A welcome feeling of freshness has been provided by young manager John Mousinho and the abundant transfer dealings made this summer. The squad looks big and balanced.

The best case scenario is that Pompey finally throw their weight around and challenge at the top of the division, but it may be a case of needing to be seen before it's believed.

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7th. Peterborough United

Peterborough are 6/52.20 for a top-six finish

After a traumatic play-off semi-final defeat to Sheffield Wednesday, and some rumblings of discontent off the field, Darragh MacAnthony has been clear: Posh will trim the high earners and go for an extremely youthful approach. While this is exciting in many ways, and we can trust them to continue to play exciting, attacking football, it doesn't suggest a short term onus on achieving promotion.

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8th. Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers are 4/15.00 for a top-six finish

Joey Barton's stubborn intent to play attacking football last season may have hindered Rovers in the short term (the team conceded over 70 goals), but it could be the right approach long term.

If the Gas can tighten up, and maintain the attacking threat provided by both Barton's tactics and a strong group of attacking players that includes League One Player of the Season Aaron Collins, they could exploit what looks like a weak renewal and challenge the Top 6.

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9th. Lincoln City

Lincoln City are 5/16.00 for a top-six finish

It was an encouraging campaign for The Imps, as rookie manager Mark Kennedy impressed in the dugout, and a number of young players developed well. The team was competitive, but lacked attacking verve. With the impressive signings of Ali Smith, Tyler Walker and Lukas Jensen in the building, and a core of young players ready to take another step forward, it's exciting times at Sincil Bank.

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10th. Wycombe Wanderers

Wycombe are 11/43.75 for a top-six finish

The first pre-season without Gareth Ainsworth and Richard Dobson for many years - things must feel strange at the Wycombe training ground. In Matt Bloomfield, they have a young manager who knows every nook and cranny of the club.

The club were used to chasing the play-offs under Ainsworth, and arguably have the best squad they've ever had. But question marks over the Ainsworth to Bloomfield transition make it hard to fully buy in.

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11th. Port Vale

Port Vale are 5/16.00 for a top-six finish

It was something of a surprise when Darrell Clarke left Port Vale late last season, as the team had been impressive under his management for the most part. The owners have gone with continuity, appointing Assistant Manager Andy Crosby. It's safe to assume they will be solid defensively, with attacking quality the obvious issue to solve in the last weeks of the window.

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12th. Barnsley

Barnsley are 6/52.20 for a top-six finish

Neill Collins has big shoes to fill, after Mike Duff jumped ship to Swansea. On top of that, star defender Mads Andersen has joined Luton. Barnsley's ownership group have a strong belief in their process - find young managers that playing pressing football, recruit exclusively young players. It's high risk, high reward, but the Duff void feels tough to fill.

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13th. Burton Albion

Dino Maamria masterminded a fantastic revival after The Brewers' poor start. It's been another busy summer of transfers, with the addition of Cole Stockton particularly eye-catching. Outside of Stockton, the additions don't seem standout at the level. It feels like the range of potential finishes is large. If Maamri has the squad fully bought in, and Stockton is fit and firing, Burton could fly.

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14th. Wigan Athletic

An eight point deduction is a tough obstacle, but could also act as a blessing for Shaun Maloney in terms of motivation - with the team having a clear target to aim for early on.

Despite a difficult summer of squad churn, The Latics have done well to build a squad for Maloney to work with a number of strong forward options. He showed promise after taking over last season, and Wigan's sharp slide should be arrested swiftly.

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15th. Leyton Orient

Orient's promotion from League Two was a Richie Wellens masterclass. He has a lot to prove at this level, and there's no doubt he has the quality to do so. The way he sets up teams to get the best out of his players is admirable.

Two key departures (Vigouroux and Smyth) have been met with strong replacements. The budget should be competitive and momentum will see them comfortable.

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16th. Northampton Town

Northampton are 7/42.75 tp be relegated

Jon Brady's Northampton Town have won a lot of football matches over the last two years. They've improved over the course of the campaign two years in a row and have found different ways of winning matches. The squad looks well stocked to play a solid, counter-attacking style.

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17th. Shrewsbury Town

Shrewsbury are 3/14.00 to be relegated

Despite a 12th placed finish, Salop are going in a different direction, swapping Steve Cotterill for young manager Matt Taylor (the one with the wand of a left foot) and a Director of Football pinched from Cheltenham. Recruitment has focused on unpolished gems, which feels high risk, high reward.

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18th. Stevenage

Stevenage are 9/43.25 to be relegated

According to Betting.Betfair previewer Mark O'Haire, only 14 (15%) of promoted League Two clubs suffer immediate relegation back to League Two. Stevenage were strong in promotion, and even if they have one of the weaker squads on paper, it's been put together with a clear vision and identity by an experienced manager in Steve Evans, who has an excellent record as a manager.

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19th. Carlisle United

Carisle are 6/42.50 to be relegated

The Cumbrians have a manager at the top of his game. Paul Simpson's summer recruitment has focused mainly on getting the band back together, adding last season's key loanees. A brilliant coach, his biggest obstacle is getting Carlisle's attack firing again, but they have the solidity and togetherness to solve most issues thrown at them.

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20th. Fleetwood Town

Fleetwood are 6/42.50 to be relegated

It's very hard to pitch The Cod Army. Owner Andy Pilley has been jailed for 13 years for fraud, and as the season begins there's no clarity as to whether his funding of the club can or will continue. If not, Fleetwood could be in trouble. If they operate as normal, the team should be highly competitive under Scott Brown, but the future of the club is a concern.

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21st. Cheltenham Town

Cheltenham are 7/42.75 to be relegated

Wade Elliott's side were robust last season. Their defensive strength stood out in the bottom half of League One, and gave them the platform for survival along with Alfie May's second straight 20+ goal season. With May now having left, Elliott has a tough task replacing the goals with a low budget for the level.

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22nd. Exeter City

Exeter are 4/15.00 to be relegated

Don't be fooled by a strong first season back at the level following relegation. Matt Taylor was the architect, and left for Rotherham. The jury is still out on Gary Caldwell, not least because of the departure of key players Collins, Key and Brown.

Current replacements look questionable, so late business better be good otherwise Exeter may give up the League One status they worked so hard to attain.

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23rd. Cambridge United

Cambridge are 9/43.25 to be relegated

Mark Bonner managed to secure survival last season with a strong finish. But for much of the campaign, Cambridge really struggled. With key players Smith, Knibbs, Jones having left on free transfers, it seems Bonner is up against it again in terms of building a squad to compete.

24th. Reading

Reading are 11/26.50 to be relegated

The Royals are the latest in a line of EFL clubs whose owners' inability to fund the club has had a huge impact. Any chance of rebuilding a tiny squad under Ruben Selles has been scuppered by transfer embargos. If a takeover goes through promptly, a quick turnaround is possible but currently the sense of spiralling is hard to ignore.

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Read NTT20s League Two predictions right here!

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Football...Only Bettor EFL special

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League One 1-24 Predictions Podcast! Sponsored by @Betfair.

Listen: https://t.co/m39rXmTCaB

L1 feels wide open this year! Chances for a ton of teams to get up promoted & scope for a big riser. At the bottom... chaos as always.

QT this with your top 3 & bottom 4. Please share! pic.twitter.com/YWr3kD0EDa

-- Not The Top 20 Pod (@NTT20Pod) July 31, 2023

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