EFL League One & League Two Tips: Warne's Derby can lift us up with 20/1 acca

• Derby and Posh aiming for Pompey

• Expect more goals with Magpies

• Alan Dudman has two weekend accas

League One

Leg 1: Peterborough v Shrewsbury Town, Saturday 15:00: Back Peterborough -2

With Portsmouth seemingly losing the plot, it's a good time now for Posh to kick on to go for the title. They are a point behind Pompey and have a game in hand with a superior goal difference, and their defence remains one of the best at home in the division.

Indeed, with just 11 conceded and 29 scored, we have a good chance of covering the -2 handicap for this, and that's a bet I like with the price at 13/53.60, considering it can boost the acca.

Shrewsbury Town have won just one of their last nine away league games against Peterborough United (D1 L7), a 2-1 win in February 2019 under Sam Ricketts.

KEY OPTA STAT: Peterborough United have scored the most goals in League One this season (52), had the most shots with 444 and have accumulated the highest xG with 50.5.

Leg 2: Lincoln City v Derby County, Saturday 15:00: Back Derby

Like Peterborough, Derby are also poised in behind with 52 points and they've been scoring plenty of late in a good run from Christmas onwards.

In five games since the 21st December, they have scored three, three, two and three in matches and were pretty unlucky going down 2-3 at home to Peterborough on the live Sky game.

Their xG metric is on a par with their home one at 1.47, and with Lincoln failing to win a game since November, this should be another three points for Derby and the they the game at Pride Park 3-1 earlier in the season.

KEY OPTA STAT: Derby County have won 10 of their last 12 league matches (D1 L1), while only Leicester (10) have won more away league games than the Rams in England's top four tiers this season (9).

Leg 3: Leyton Orient v Bolton, Saturday 15:00: Back the draw

Orient produced one of their best results of the season last weekend with a 0-3 win at Portsmouth, and they are in a decent run now going up to tenth in the table and they've now kept four clean sheets on the spin.

The two met recently with Bolton winning 3-2 in the north west, a bizarre game in which the O's defence imploded by conceding three goals inside the first ten minutes.

I don't see the same thing happening given the hosts and their recent defensive record.

KEY OPTA STAT: Leyton Orient have lost just two of their last 18 home league games against Bolton Wanderers (W10 D6) winning 4-0 the last time the two sides met at Brisbane Road in October 2020.

League Two

Leg 1: AFC Wimbledon v Crawley Town, Saturday 15:00: Back AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon have won four of their last four home matches in League Two (L1), more than they managed in their previous 20 (W3 D8 L9). The Dons have scored 4+ goals in each of their last three home victories (4-2 v Notts County, 4-0 v Swindon Town & 5-3 v Colchester United), and that makes then a solid 1/21.50 shot for Saturday.

The Londoners have endured a couple of tough games recently with Ipswich in the cup and Wrexham last weekend on the road, but some home comforts should bring about the three points.

Crawley have lost six on the road and the Dons beat Town in the reverse fixture recently 1-2 with a good counter-attacking display.

KEY OPTA STAT: After failing to win either of their first two Football League clashes with Crawley Town (D1 L1), AFC Wimbledon have since won four of the last five league encounters between the two teams (L1).

Leg 2: Notts County v Stockport, Saturday 15:00: Back BTTS

Games involving Notts County are borderline crazy this term. They score a lot, but their defending at times leaves a lot to be desired and almost comical in various games.

Their last three matches have been 5-5, 4-2 and 5-0, which is frankly ridiculous and the Magpies are yet to draw a home match in League Two this season, winning 10 and losing the other three. They are only one of two teams in the division not to have recorded a draw at home along with Crawley Town.

This is a big game for the division but Stockport County have drawn each of their last three away league matches (1-1 v Morecambe, 2-2 v Barrow & 0-0 v Bradford City), they last went on a longer run of away draws in the Football League between October and November 1998, drawing four on the bounce in the second tier.

I would be amazed if there wasn't a goal or two.

KEY OPTA STAT: Following their 2-1 win in the reverse fixture in December, Stockport are looking to complete the double over Notts County for the very first time in the Football League.

Leg 3: Mansfield Town v Sutton United, Saturday 15:00: Back Mansfield -2

With the two previous L2 tips both at 1/21.50, we can boost the acca away from the bankers with Mansfield against a poor Sutton team and the visitors should be ripe to take on with the -2 here.

Mansfield have conceded just seven at home all season, and considering Sutton have scored just 11 on the road conceded 34 on their travels, this should be a game Nigel Clough's team can assert their authority. Bar a wobble or two over the Christmas, the Stags have been a very reliable punting medium.

Their xG metric at home is impressive at compared to 1.05 xA, and Sutton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 away matches, conceding a total of 46 goals - an average of 2.9 per game. In fact, only Swindon Town (35) have conceded more league goals away from home this season in the top four tiers of English football than Sutton (34).

KEY OPTA STAT: Sutton United failed to score in their two league meetings Mansfield Town in 2023 (D1 L1), after netting 2+ goals in each of the first three English Football League encounters between the pair (W3).

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