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Wednesday hot favourites for League One final
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Barnsley won both matches in regular season
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Alan Dudman has two bets for Monday's Wembley game
Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday
Monday 29th May, kick-off 15:00
Live on Sky Sports
Barnsley
This will be Barnsley's fourth Football League play-off final. They lost 4-2 to Ipswich in 2000 (second tier), beat Swansea on penalties in 2006 (League One) and beat Millwall 3-1 in 2016 (League One) and are most certainly outsiders here against their big-spending neighbours.
Barnsley are 12/53.35 in the match outright 90 minutes betting and 5/42.24 in the Promotion market on the Sportsbook.
Michael Duff's team finished 10 points behind Wednesday on 86 points, but they did win more away games than the Owls (seven to six), and won 16 at home (the same amount as Monday's opponents).
Duff said of his opposite number Darren Moore: "He got 96 points in a season. But he kept his counsel because he's a good fella, first and foremost," which is what many felt after his rousing speech post-Peterborough triumph.
Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday became the first team in the history of the EFL play-offs to reach the final after losing the first leg of the semi-final by a four-goal margin, losing 4-0 in the first leg against Peterborough United before winning 5-1 in the second leg and progressing 5-3 on penalties.
It was a perfect example of League One football - bad one minute and a few days later, exceptional.
Following Darren Moore's team this season has been something of an up-and-down journey. They looked certs for the title earlier in the campaign and were matched at ultra-shorts odds, but a wobble towards the end of the season blew the automatic hopes, and they nearly blew it themselves at London Road.
Wednesday are favourites in the Promotion market at 8/131.60. What a journey it's been.
George Byers could make a shock return to the squad - the midfielder has six goals this term and three assists and has been sorely missed since picking up an injury in early March.
Wednesday have the greater experience in their squad, as Barnsley's average age of 24 is the youngest in the division. Duff isn't worried about his players handling the big stage and said: "Our youth and naivety might help us.
"I'm not concerned about anyone freezing. It might happen but it could happen with older players as well. It's a one-off occasion and whoever can handle it best."
Barnsley were shock 4-2 winners in the regular season at Oakwell, and did the double on the Owls with a 0-2 win at Hillsborough. On those form lines alone that might be worth a bet as the outsiders of the two.
The problem with Wednesday, and it has been all season is price. They usually start odds-on away from home, and at 6/52.16 with a season record of losing both games against Barnsley, it's not the greatest price or bet in the world.
The draw at 3.412/5 on the Exchange offers the chance for some trading, although Barnsley scored in the first-half in both League One regular season matches.
Barnsley have lost three of their five matches at Wembley Stadium. The exceptions were two victories in 2016, beating Oxford in the EFL Trophy final in April, and Millwall in the League One play-off final in May. Their most recent visit was a 1-0 loss to Spurs in the EFL Cup third round in September 2017.
Wednesday won three of their first four games at Wembley (1935 FA Cup vs West Brom, 1991 League Cup final vs Man Utd, 1993 FA Cup semi-final vs Sheffield United) but are winless in their last four visits to the national stadium (D1 L3), with their most recent visit a 1-0 defeat to Hull in the 2016 Championship play-off final.
Wednesday's xG numbers at Hillsborough were some of the best in the business - with an xG of 2.05 and an xA of just 1.05.
Barnsley conceded 24 at Oakwell this term - not nearly as miserly as the Owls and their xG numbers were nowhere near as impressive either at 1.50 and 1.14 against.
The Under 2.5 Goals is the shorter of the two at 4/61.65 on the Sportsbook, with the Over 2.5 available to back at 23/20. The shorter 1.5 Under bet is 21/10 on the Sportsbook.
The Owls have scored 104 goals in all competitions this season, their most in a single campaign since scoring 106 in the 1992-93 season, when they were a top-flight side. Can Barnsley keep a clean sheet? The Barnsley To Win To Nil price on the Exchange is a massive 5.85/1 - and they have done it once already.
Barry Bannan has created the most chances in League One (133), played the most passes into the opposition box (512) and completed the most crosses (118) of any player.
With that supply line, the Owls' forwards will be popular here. Michael Smith ended the season strongly with seven in his last eight and a goal in the return leg at Hillsborough.
The 31-year-old is 2/1 To Score and 9/2 in the First Goalscorer market. I was somewhat frustrated as flagged him up at 16/1 for a boost in the opening first leg against Peterborough for him to score inside the first 20 minutes. He had a chance on seven one-on-one and fluffed it.
Of course he scored early in the second leg.
Smith (29) and Josh Windass (22) are the only two players that have more goals and assists than Bannan - a real class act in this league.
Will Moore recall Windass? The forward was in sensational form at the turn of the year but has missed a couple of months through injury, but he's a big game player and could play the number 10 role behind Smith.
As ever, Lee Gregory is often short for the Owls - and while his goal return has been poor this term at just 11, he did net in the 5-1 play-off win v Peterborough in the return game.
Gregory to score first and Sheffield Wednesday to win pays around 7/17.80 on the Sportsbook.
I am tempted to follow suit from the Championship game and make this one to go down to a shoot-out, as I cannot entertain Wednesday in the match outright due to the first leg 4-0 defeat.
Barnsley were no thrills over the two legs against Bolton and I am taking the 12/5 match outright for the win for Michael Duff's team.