Southampton v Newcastle EFL Cup Tips: Magpies to claim narrow win

• Newcastle remain ultra solid but are firing too many blanks so Under 2.5 Goals looks best

• The Magpies are value to claim a fifth 1-0 win of the season at 7.413/2

• Bruno Guimares to score in a narrow away win is a Bet Builder option at 22.021/1

Saints hoping for more cup escapism

Southampton aren't supposed to still be in the Carabao Cup. That was the widely-held thought when the draw paired them with Manchester City in the quarter-finals.

But building on a 2-1 FA Cup win at Crystal Palace four days earlier, Nathan Jones' side pulled off a shock and deserved 2-0 victory to send City crashing out.

That upset followed wins over Cambridge (3-0), Sheffield Wednesday (on penalties) and Lincoln (2-1) so it's fair to say Southampton hadn't been tested much to that point.

Saints followed the Man City victory with a 2-1 Premier League win at Everton so there were plenty of mentions of turning points when they hosted Aston Villa at the weekend.

But just as fast came the calls of a revival being over as a 1-0 defeat kept them rooted to the bottom of the table. In truth, Southampton can count themselves to be a tad unfortunate as they had a James Ward-Prowse strike ruled out by VAR in a game that no-one really deserved to win.

Tuesday night's first leg is the start of three straight cup games for Jones' men. Inbetween the two games against Newcastle they host Blackpool in the FA Cup so, in theory, they could end January on a real high.

Door open for Newcastle to end drought

The Beatles were still together the last time Newcastle hoisted silverware. So is this the year when the long and winding road to glory finally ends?

It won't be coming via the FA Cup after they crashed out to Sheffield Wednesday in the third round and dropping 11 points behind Arsenal in the title race suggests that flickering flight of fancy won't come this season.

So this is the golden chance. With Manchester City unexpectedly going out at Southampton, plenty will see this two-legged semi as an open goal for the Magpies to reach a domestic showpiece for the first time since their rather limp displays in back-to-back FA Cup final defeats in the late 1990s.

Eddie Howe's men have suffered just two defeats in 25 matches in all competitions this season which makes their defeat at Sheffield Wednesday that much more galling.

In the Premier League their only loss was a deep-into injury-time defeat at Anfield and that came way back in August.

Their 13 wins this term include a 4-1 romp at Southampton in November when goals from Miguel Almiron, Chris Wood, Joe Willock and Bruno Guimaraes made it a glorious trip south for the Toon Army.

That was also the scoreline the last and only time these two teams in the League Cup although that third-round tie in 1968-69 went the way of Southampton.

Magpies dominate head-to-heads

As well as their comprehensive win at St Mary's in early November, the Magpies have dominated this fixture, the last 11 meetings showing just a single win for the Saints.

Newcastle are expected to take a lead back to St James' Park, the market making them 1.814/5 to secure a first-leg advantage.

Southampton are 5.04/1 to repeat their heroics against Manchester City and pull off victory while The Draw is 3.711/4.

In the To Qualify markets, Newcastle are just 1.171/6 to make it to Wembley while Southampton trade at 4.57/2.

Unders and a narrow away win look best bets

Over two legs, I'd expect the Magpies to do enough but this isn't the same free-scoring Newcastle that were banging in the goals before the World Cup.

Looking back, they started October by scoring nine times across two games against Fulham and Brentford, closed out the month with a 4-0 home win over Aston Villa and then blitzed Southampton 4-1 here.

But in their last six games, Newcastle have managed just four goals. Clean sheets have meant they've won two of those half-dozen matches but three 0-0s in that run - against Leeds, Arsenal and Crystal Palace - have stalled their progress in the Premier League.

Newcastle remain incredibly hard to score against and have comfortably the best defensive record in the top flight. But their lack of goals is a concern and will give Southampton some hope.

Add in the fact that this is a first leg, giving Newcastle another bite of the cherry in front of their home fans, and I'm inclined to back Under 2.5 goals at 1.865/6.

Southampton shipping only three goals in their last four matches adds further confidence.

But I will also add a punt on a very narrow Newcastle win. Southampton have lost their last two home Premier League matches 0-1 and the Magpies' current form suggests they're the perfect side to inflict another.

Newcastle have produced four 1-0 wins in their last 14 matches so 7.413/2 here seems a fair price.

Guimares to score in narrow Magpies win looks tasty

With Wembley in sight, Howe should go strong on Tuesday night and I quite like Bruno Guimares for a goal.

Guimares scored in the Premier League game at St Mary's and also in the FA Cup defeat at Sheffield Wednesday earlier this month.

On the Bet Builder, the Brazilian is 6.86/1 to score in a Newcastle win but add in Under 2.5 goals and the price inflates noticably. Let's have a small punt on Bruno Guimares to score, Newcastle win and Under 2.5 Goals at just over 22.021/1.

Opta fact

Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five League Cup games, with League Two side Tranmere's Elliott Nevitt the only player to score against the Magpies in the competition this term.