Southampton v Man City EFL Cup tips: Goals to fly in at St Mary's in 7/2 shout

Pep Guardiola
Pep Guardiola has lost just two EFL Cup ties

Paul Higham thinks there'll be goals, mainly from Man City, at St Mary's as they face Southampton in their Carabao Cup quarter-final tie.

  • City have lost just two of 29 EFL Cup games under Guardiola

  • Saints lost seven of eight EFL Cup quarter-finals

  • City won last two v Saints 4-0 & 4-1

  • Back over 3.5 goals at 23/20 in this game

Southampton v Man City
Wednesday 11 January, 20:00 kick-off
Live on Sky Sports

Struggling Saints still in both cups

It looks like one of those seasons for Southampton, who prop up the Premier League after a shocking run of six straight defeats, but a run punctuated by victories in both the EFL and FA Cups.

Beating a couple of lower league sides in this and then Crystal Palace in the FA Cup hardly compares to now facing Pep Guardiola's side that have been so dominant in this competition, and few give Saints any hope of reaching the semi-finals.

Nathan Jones 1280.JPG

Nathan Jones is trying to bring in new faces in the January window, but it'll be a lot of the same faces here looking to provide a boost ahead of their relegation fight continuing.

He'll have to be careful here though as a heavy defeat will pile on the pressure he's already under given their perilous position at the bottom of the table - and you do wonder if a two-legged cup semi-final would be in their best interests anyway?

City's continuing cup dominanace

Guardiola loves this competition having won it four times, only losing two (both against Man Utd) in 29 games (W22 D5) and the other elimination coming on pens against West Ham last year.

He obviously takes it seriously, but is also helps when you look at the kind of 'second string' side he can field given the riches he's got in his squad, so it's no real surprise how good they are in this.

And again here for the trip to St Mary's, after beating Chelsea twice in four days he can make changes again and call upon the likes of Haaland, De Bruyne, Stones and Gundogan who all stayed in the bench during the 4-0 FA Cup at the Etihad a few days ago.

The Manchester derby is coming up at the weekend though so Guardiola does have rare genuine selection questions to answer as they're still so way behind Arsenal so we'll see how high up this rates in his priorities.

Hard to see Saints getting anything

City have won their last eight EFL Cup quarter-finals, while Southampton have lost seven of their last eight, and Saints have also a stinking record against Guardiola's side with just one win in 15 (L11 D3).

City are 1/5 as a result with Southampton 12/1 to win it in 90 minutes and 7/1 to get through on penalties, with no extra time being played at this stage of the competition.

Three of Southampton's last five League Cup ties have gone to penalties and West Ham beat City last year via spot-kicks so there is form there, but it seems a bit far fetched given how both are playing.

James Ward-Prowse England.jpg

Saints did manage a couple of draws two seasons ago, but City won 4-0 and 4-1 in their last two and the way they pulled Chelsea apart means over 3.5 goals here at 23/20 looks a good bet, especially if Haaland plays.

Player-wise, backing City players in these games is always tough as prices are naturally restrictive and you're never 100% sure who'll be starting.

If you fancy Southampton to score then Che Adams is your man as he's bacgged a brace in both EFL Cup games this season, and has scored in five games in this competition.

Adams is 7/2 to score anytime.

I'm not so sure Saints will find the net though, so the preference here is for James Ward-Prowse to get 1+ shots on target at 8/5.

The Southampton skipper has hit the target in three of his last four, and we all know about his free-kicks so he can have a pot-shot from almost anywhere, and that alone gives him a chance.

The talk is Kalvin Phillips could finally make his first Man City start as well, and it'd be no surprise if he's just a bit off the pace, allowing Ward-Prowse to get beyond him and let fly from around the box,

Recommended bets

Column P/L 2022/23

Staked: 187pts
Returned: 228.59pts
P/L: +41.59pts

New Customers can get £50 in free bets!

Available to new customers only. Place a £10 bet on the Betfair Sportsbook and you will receive £50 in free bets to use on Bet Builders and Accas! Opt-in here and T&cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.