Liverpool v Newcastle EFL Final: Use Betfair Build-Ups to bravely back Isak to outfire Salah

• It takes a brave man to back against Mo Salah this season

• If anyone can outfire him at Wembley it's Isak

• Newcastle also tipped to succeed

Liverpool v Newcastle

League Cup Final, Wembley

March 14th, 2026, 16:30

Live on ITV (UK)

Match Ups - Isak to have more SOT than Salah

There's no getting around it, to back Alexander Isak to have more shots on target than Mo Salah at Wembley this weekend is to also back Newcastle to win. And the Magpies are 7/24.50 outsiders.

Frankly, this is a bold enough bet as it is. One for the brave, and not those who reside in the fine margins. Add a Liverpool victory into the equation and the prospect of the Swede outfiring the phenomenal Egyptian forward becomes so remote it can only be reached by boat.

So before we dig down into the player's stats and recent output, let's look at the bigger picture, and gauge how realistic it is that Newcastle can end a 70-year search for a major honour this coming Sunday.

Arne Slot's champions-elect have won only four of their last 10 away fixtures. That alone is cause for encouragement.

Factor in too, a possible hangover from their Champions League exit midweek and we could be in business. Certainly, if the contest remains close in the latter stages we can expect some degree from fatigue to set in from the Reds, after throwing the kitchen sink at PSG for 120 minutes and more.

Lastly, there is the 3-3 that played out at St James Park back in December. Pertinently, that evening the hosts took on 17 shots to Liverpool's 16.

Yet, as soon as we start to convince ourselves that another draw could suffice - implying has Isak equal opportunity to trouble Alisson as his counterpart to Pope - along comes the player's numbers this term to bring further doubt.

Player vs Player

English Premier League

Alexander Isak

Newcastle

English Premier League

Mohamed Salah

Liverpool

Isak Salah

Appearances 34 38

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Goals 23 29

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Shots 99 130

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Shots on target 46 61

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Assists 6 18

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Chances created 42 89

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Passes 658 1155

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Fouls 27 25

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Fouls won 14 39

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Yellow cards 1 1

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Red cards 0 0

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That seems pretty comprehensive, doesn't it? 106 shots to 69. 55 SOT to 55. Isak is as much an underdog as his team.

But when we break those figures down they don't seem anything like as scary.

Salah has taken on 1.9 SOT per 90 in 2024/25. Isak has taken on 1.5. There's not a huge disparity there. If it's Newcastle's day that could be negated pretty easily.

As for shot accuracy, Salah boasts 51.9% to Isak's 49.3.

Moreover, while Salah's consistent prolificacy has been extraordinary this season, accruing 54 goal involvement across all comps, when it comes to goals scored since the start of December, Isak has the edge.

The Newcastle man has converted 17 in 18. Salah, 20 in 22.

In their last five respective outings meanwhile there is little to separate them, Salah posting six SOT to Isak's five.

All things considered therefore, maybe this isn't such a brave punt after all.

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