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Boro lead but Chelsea odds-on to qualify
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Palmer key for Poch's trophy bid
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Back the Bet Builder @ 19/120.00
The first indication that Michael Carrick might have a future as a manager came when he took Manchester United to Stamford Bridge and earned a creditable 1-1 draw in November 2021.
It was Carrick's first match in charge as interim boss, following the sacking of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, and United were at a low ebb. But Carrick got them up for it and, after going a goal up, were unlucky not to win.
Now Carrick takes Middlesbrough to Chelsea and, even though the Championship team won the first leg 1-0, the Premier League side are 1/31.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook to qualify from the tie.
There are good reasons for that - Chelsea have won four of their last five in all competitions - and have not played for 10 days. They have the stronger squad, having spent hundreds of millions to assemble it and the visitors are contending with injuries.
They made light work of Preston here in the FA Cup recently, winning 4-0, and North End are only one place below Boro in the Championship.
But momentum has been a problem for Chelsea this season and, what they gain in freshness from their break, they may lose in terms of rhythm.
Boro have won their last three semi-finals in this competition, including their last one against Arsenal, before going on to lift the trophy 20 years ago. Although that was so long ago it is probably irrelevant.
Leg 1 - Back Middlesbrough + 2
The romantic in me is tempted by Middlesbrough to qualify at 9/43.25 but I am going to leave it alone on the grounds that Chelsea really should go through.
Mauricio Pochettino will not want to blow his chance of winning a first trophy in English football. Winning this competition would be a good building block for his reign at Stamford Bridge and potentially salvage a topsy-turvy first season.
Instead, I will back Boro +2 on the Asian handicap at 11/102.11. That means if Chelsea win 1-0 in normal time and the tie goes into extra-time, this leg will still win.
Leg 2 - Back Under 2.5 goals
I think we could be in for a tighter match at Stamford Bridge than we saw when Preston came to West London. Let's remember that Boro kept a clean sheet against Chelsea in the first leg and were only narrowly beaten 1-0 by Aston Villa in the FA Cup.
In their last 10 matches, only twice have Carrick's men conceded more than one goal in a match. Back under 2.5 goals.
Leg 3 - Back Palmer to score or assist
After their break, and with his team starting from a goal down, Pochettino will pick his strongest 11 on Tuesday.
It would be a surprise if Chelsea do not score, so who is going to be involved for them up front?
Cole Palmer has been a rare revelation since signing for Chelsea in the summer. He is at the heart of everything good that Chelsea do right now, and making a good case to go to Euro 2024 with England in the summer.
If Chelsea are going to come through this tie and book their place at Wembley, they will need Palmer to perform as well as he has been doing recently. Back him to score or assist.