It's the Brighton and Manchester United rematch on Wednesday evening in the Carabao Cup, and Alan Dudman believes that the hosts can upset the market here.....
"Brighton have the edge in terms of fitness, as Potter's Cup team has played an extra game in the tournament so far, and that makes the 4.3100/30 look interesting."
Brighton v Manchester United
Wednesday 30th September, kickoff 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Main Event
Seagulls looking for a quarter-final spot after two wins
We haven't had to wait too long for the Brighton and Manchester United rematch following Saturday's controversial 2-3 win for Ole Gunnar Solksjaer's team. The late goal on that occasion brought a whole new meaning to the phrase "Fergie time". Let's see if "Ole time" catches on.
It's dangerous to take that game literally as a direct comparison for this Carabao Cup fourth round tie, as Graham Potter has used his fringe players for both of their wins in the competition so far - beating Portsmouth 4-0 and Preston 2-0.
Indeed, Potter made 11 changes at Deepdale last week against an under-strength opponent, and whilst those changes were expected, his team have looked very hungry. He's created the perfect blend for these matches so far in throwing in a couple of youngsters in Haydon Roberts and Max Sanders, but also with the experience of Pascal Gross, who has been influential in the Pompey and Preston wins with the captain's armband.
Only once in their history have Brighton made the quarter-finals of the League Cup, so Potter might have to decide to stick or twist with the players he has used.
United were far from impressive in previous round with Luton
My colleague Jamie Pacheco headlined with Manchester United's rustiness in their Premier League clash on Saturday, and whilst he got the penalty bet up, the lay going down on about 450 minutes was a pretty tough one.
But rustiness is the factor here; as United boss Ole Gunnar Solksjaer has used that as an excuse on more than one occasion. It cropped up again following their 0-3 win against Luton in the previous round, although for me, Luton weren't given enough credit.
I went with the Double Chance on the Hatters, although I was a little surprised their manager Nathan Jones made nine changes. I didn't expect that.
However, the Red Devils were flattered as two of the goals were very late on in the game, and Luton were denied an equaliser by a great save from Dean Henderson.
United are 7.06/1 in the Winner market, whilst Brighton are 40.039/1.
Considering I opposed United in the previous round against Luton, the price on the visitors here is not a bet I'll be taking at 1.981/1. Using the old mantra of never back odds-on away from home can certainly be trotted out, but with that lack of match sharpness and preparation, it has to be a slight cause for concern.
Brighton have the edge in terms of fitness, as Potter's Cup team has played an extra game in the tournament so far, and that makes the 4.3100/30 look interesting. Especially with the hunger and desire they have shown.
Potter also has depth to play with, and whilst the Draw No Bet is worth a look, I will go again with the Double Chance bet at 2.1011/10 to have the two running.
Jahanbakhsh on the lookout for a third Cup goal
It's no surprise the Over 2.5 Goals price at 1.845/6 is the shorter of the two with the influence of Saturday's five-goal thriller. Opta stats also back up that particular bet to some extent as the Reds have failed not to score in any of their last 16 League Cup ties.
Solksjaer's team have hit the Over 2.5 target in all three games so far in all competitions, whilst Brighton are a healthy four from five.
There's a nagging doubt however with how easily Luton kept the Reds out for large parts of the game, and with United keeping clean sheets in three of their last four League Cup matches, I am more inclined to lean towards the Under 2.5 price of 2.1011/10.
To score bets could focus around Juan Mata who netted from the spot against Luton, and he is a likely starter as a squad player, whilst "Mr Spectacular" Alireza Jahanbakhsh has scored twice in the Carabao already - and according to Opta, has been involved in 50% of his team's goals so far.
Jahanbakhsh at 3.814/5 To Score is a little shorter than Mata at 4.03/1.
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