Andy Schooler selects his best bets from the Carabao Cup fourth-round ties on Wednesday and he's backing goals in Everton v West Ham.
"Both attacks have been sharp – in this competition and the league – while both defences will likely have several changes."
Giant-killers can keep it tight
Newport 13/27.4 v Newcastle 40/851.46; The Draw 4/15.0
Wednesday 30 September, 17:30
We had a nice winner last week when Newport landed odds of 11/26.4 when beating Watford in round three, adding to the impressive list of higher-division scalps they've taken under boss Michael Flynn.
They are up at 13/27.4 to see off Newcastle at Rodney Parade this time around but it looks a much tougher test for a team who have only made a smattering of changes to their XI for these Carabao Cup games.
Newcastle changed 10 for their 1-0 win over Blackburn in round two and nine at Morecambe last week. It mattered little though as the strolled to a 7-0 success.
The quality they are able to bring in is considerably higher than that of Watford.
Still, Newport are no Morecambe, who had lost 5-0 to Cambridge just days before their Newcastle capitulation. They sit third in League Two after a good start which included a 2-0 win on Saturday at the ante-post title favourites, Bolton.
Adding in their cup results, it's now four wins on the spin for the Welshmen, who look tempting on the +1.25 Asian handicap line.
Full of confidence and knowing they are capable of competing with Premier League opponents - they beat Leicester here two years ago and also drew with Spurs - they'll deliver a profit even if they lose by a one-goal margin with this bet.
Mahrez has potential - if he plays
Burnley 17/29.4 v Manchester City 2/51.42; The Draw 4/14.9
Wednesday 30 September, 19:00
It will be interesting to see what sort of side Pep Guardiola goes with following Sunday's embarrassment at the hands of Leicester.
I say 'will' for a reason. At time of writing, it's very difficult to judge the fixture.
Knowing his side can likely afford to lose very few Premier League games this season if they want to be crowned champions, Guardiola may want a response from his first-team regulars.
Alternatively he may be quite prepared to sacrifice this competition, which they have won for the past three seasons, given the packed nature of the 2020/21 campaign. Remember the Champions League starts in three weeks' time.
The latter seems more likely, although interestingly Aymeric Laporte was on the bench on Sunday and so could be given his first start of the season. City have a vastly better record with the Frenchman in their side, while even without both Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus their attacking verve should create chances.
That forward line usually causes Burnley, who won't offer the same counter-attacking threat that Leicester used so effectively, plenty of headaches and over the past two seasons City have won all five meetings. The scorelines? 5-0, 4-1, 1-0, 5-0, 5-0.
You can get 5/4 about City scoring over 2.5 goals in this game.
Another angle from that history is to back Riyad Mahrez to score at any time - a 9/5 shot.
He's netted in three of those five matches and could also be on the penalties which are being handed out left, right and centre at present.
However, once again that throws up the question of team news. It looks best to wait and see those line-ups before committing.
Expect goals at Goodison
Everton 4/51.77 v West Ham 4/14.8; The Draw 4.1
Wednesday 30 September, 19:45
This could be an entertaining affair given the number of goals these sides have scored in the past couple of weeks.
Both have netted eight in two rounds of this competition so far and while they've yet to face top-flight opposition, the goals have also come in the Premier League with Everton putting five past West Brom and two past Crystal Palace, while the Hammers smashed Wolves 4-0 on Sunday having previously caused Arsenal plenty of problems in a 2-1 defeat.
West Ham changed their entire XI when facing Hull last week yet still won 5-1. They also made 10 changes for the 3-0 victory over Charlton.
Sebastien Haller scored a brace in both games and also added another as a substitute during that Wolves romp. He has potential at 5/2 to score at any time at Goodison.
Everton made wholesale changes for their win over Salford but went stronger at Fleetwood last week.
In defence that night, full-back Lucas Digne was moved into the middle and if that's the case again here - and it may well be with Mason Holgate injured and Yerry Mina's fitness likely to be protected - then Haller and West Ham will have something to target. And that's before I mention Jordan Pickford's shaky form.
At the other end, Carlo Ancelotti fielded both Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison at Fleetwood and a repeat would be bad news for a makeshift visiting defence given how well the duo have started the season.
If those two make the starting XI, 8/11 about Everton scoring over 1.5 goals will look big but the most solid bet looks to be both teams to score at 5/71.71.
Both attacks have been sharp - in this competition and the league - while both defences will likely have several changes. Ergo...
Andy Schooler's P/L 2020/21
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2pts both teams to score in Everton v West Ham @ 5/71.71
Newport +1.25 (Asian handicap) v Newcastle