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Leeds have won five of their last six away games to nil
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Watford have conceded the most shots from set-pieces in the league in 2024
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Joe Rodon is yet to score in English football from a total xG of 3.2
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Watford v Leeds
Friday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football
This is a hard match to preview because so much will happen between the time of writing and kick-off. Right now Leeds are top of the Championship thanks to a superior goal-difference to Leicester, and having played a game more, while Ipswich are a point behind and just will not leave the top two to it.
By the time this gets underway at 8pm on Good Friday, Leeds could be 1st, 2nd or 3rd depending on how those other sides get on at Bristol City and Blackburn accordingly. Regardless, whether it's a chance to capitalise on dropped points elsewhere or a need to respond to rivals winning, this is an essential three points for Leeds in their quest to return to the Premier League.
For Watford, things are less pressing. Tom Cleverley has a chance to stake his claim to turn an Interim job into a glorified Interim job, and made a good start with a 1-0 win at Birmingham helping to ease any slight relegation fears.
Their home record is a massive issue that Cleverley needs to solve. They haven't won any of their last nine league games, losing six, in a run of form in front of their own fans that would likely lead to any manager's sacking, so at Watford it was always coming.
Leeds' home form, unbeaten at Elland Road this season, has been the cornerstone of their title challenge, but they've won five of their last six away games, and all of them to nil. In fact, they've won 10 of their last 13 games to nil. We copped that selection in their last fixture against Millwall and I couldn't put you off taking the 9/5 for that to cop again.
It's not the selection I'm going for for this column though, as I'm hoping to land the spoils backing a player who is yet to score in over 10,000 minutes of English and International football. It's a remarkable record for Joe Rodon, who does have one senior goal to his name when on loan at Rennes last season.
Yet to score from 55 shots for English club and Welsh country, there is reason to think Rodon could soon break that duck. He goes up for set-pieces for Leeds and has had 17 shots for them in the Championship this season totalling an xG of 1.48 according to Fotmob. This skips up to 3.2 xG in his Championship career, but still no goals.
Incredibly he's yet to hit the target with any of those 17 shots, but I just refuse to believe that there is some deficiency in Rodon's heading ability that prevents him from hitting the back of the net. It's an anomaly, surely, that will soon correct itself.
And where better to do so than at Watford, who may have only conceded nine goals from set-pieces this season but have conceded 5.69 shots per 90 from these situations in the calendar year, comfortably the most in the league. This also equates to an xG per 90 conceded from set-pieces that is only worst by Blackburn.
Leeds had 13 corners last time out against Millwall and should pile the pressure on here, giving Rodon plenty of chance to notch his first goal in English football and land the spoils for us at 14/115.00.
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