Premier League Opta Stats: Back 7/1 assist tip and 4/1 Etihad Bet Builder
The international break is over and we are now entering the final stretch of the 2023-24 football season, so what better way to kick off the home straight with 10 Premier League bets from this weekend's Opta stats...
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Palmer's numbers cannot be ignored
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15/82.88 on Palace goals is generous at Forest
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Find 7/18.00 assist tip and 7/18.00 Man Utd Bet Builder
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Old boy Mac Allister can haunt Brighton
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Finish the weekend with 4/15.00 stats Bet Builder
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Claim your completely free Acca or Bet Builder here
Newcastle United v West Ham United
Can Magpies shut out Hammers?
The Opta Stat:
"Newcastle have picked up 73% of their points in the Premier League this season at home (29/40), with only Fulham (74%) having a higher ratio. The Magpies have won nine of their 14 home league games this season (D2 L3). Indeed, the Magpies are one of three sides - along with Man City and Tottenham - to have scored in 100% of their Premier League home games this season whilst only the bottom two sides - Sheffield United (12) and Burnley (11) - are on a longer run without a clean sheet in the Premier League this season than West Ham (9)."
The Betfair Bet:
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Bournemouth v Everton
Profit from the opening goal
The Opta Stat:
"Dominic Solanke has scored 15 Premier League goals this season, with only Josh King (16 in 2016-17) ever netting more for Bournemouth in a campaign. Nine of those goals have given the Cherries the lead in a match - the most of a player for any side in the competition in 2023-24, and an all-time Bournemouth record in a season in the division."
The Betfair Bet:
Chelsea v Burnley
Palmer is Blues' star
The Opta Stat:
"A goal and assist against Newcastle last time out took Cole Palmer's Premier League goal involvements tally for Chelsea this season to 19 (11 goals, 8 assists); he could become only the fifth player to reach at least 20 involvements in his first season in the competition for the Blues, after Jimmy-Floyd Hasselbaink (32 in 2000-01), Eden Hazard (20 in 2012-13), Diego Costa (23 in 2014-15) and Cesc Fàbregas (21 in 2014-15)."
The Betfair Bet:
Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace
Glasnerball taking effect?
The Opta Stat:
"In two of Crystal Palace's three Premier League games under Oliver Glasner they have recorded an xG of over two (2.4 v Burnley and 2.7 v Luton Town), as many times as in their first 25 games of the season (2.1 v Wolves in September and 2.2 v Everton in November). Only Brentford (7) have lost more Premier League games in 2024 than Nottingham Forest (6), while overall in 2023-24, only the Bees (28) have dropped more points from winning positions than Forest's 21."
The Betfair Bet:
Sheffield United v Fulham
Chance the big price provider
The Opta Stat:
"All six of Antonee Robinson's assists for Fulham in the Premier League this season have been from open play; the only defender with more in 2023-24 is Vladimír Coufal (7). Indeed, the last player for the Cottagers to provide more assists from open play in a top-flight season was Luís Boa Morte in 2005-06 (8)."
The Betfair Bet:
Tottenham Hotspur v Luton Town
Back the home goals
The Opta Stat:
"Since beating Brighton 4-0 in January, Luton are without a win in their last eight league matches (D3 L5). Away from home they've conceded 4+ goals in three of their last four games, and four times overall - the last side to do so more times in a Premier League season was Manchester United in 2021-22 (5)."
The Betfair Bet:
Aston Villa v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Time to get on Ait-Nouri prices
The Opta Stat:
"Aston Villa's Leon Bailey completed five of his six take-ons last time out against West Ham, his most in a Premier League game this season - in 2023-24, only Jérémy Doku (2.2) has a higher expected assists total from a take-on than Bailey's 1.5. On the other side, Rayan Aït-Nouri has been involved in two goals in his last three Premier League appearances for Wolves (1 goal, 1 assist), as many as in his previous 55 appearances in the competition; he also scored and assisted in their FA Cup match against Coventry last time out."
The Betfair Bet:
Brentford v Manchester United
Goals expected and goals should come
The Opta Stat:
"Manchester United's seven league visits to Brentford have produced a total of 30 goals (F13 A17), an average of 4.3 per game. Both of their top-flight defeats away against the Bees have been by a 4-0 scoreline (October 1936 and August 2022). Indeed, the reverse meeting earlier this season ended 2-1 to Man Utd, who were losing going into added time. Scott McTominay netted both goals for the Red Devils that day, and he has been involved in 12 goals in all competitions for United this season, registering his highest figures for both goals (9) and assists (3) in a single campaign."
The Betfair Bet:
Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion
How to haunt your old club
The Opta Stat:
"Alexis Mac Allister - who played 112 times for Brighton between 2020 and 2023 - has scored in each of his last three appearances for Liverpool in all competitions (3 goals in total). He'd scored just twice in his first 31 appearances for the Reds this term. Indeed, teammte Mohamed Salah is averaging a goal or assist every 76 minutes in the Premier League this season, the best rate of anyone to play at least 180 minutes in the competition this term. The Egyptian needs one more assist to become the first player in Premier League history to reach double figures for both goals and assists in three consecutive campaigns."
The Betfair Bet:
Manchester City v Arsenal
Ake v Saka a battle to watch
The Opta Stat:
"Arsenal's Bukayo Saka has been involved in 314 attacking one-v-ones in the Premier League this season, more than any other player. Seven of these have led to a goal being scored within 10 seconds, the joint-most so far this term (Mohamed Salah also 7). Teammate Kai Havertz has scored in each of his last four Premier League appearances, the only German player to score in four in a row in the competition's history. The last Arsenal player to score in five in a row in their debut season with the club was Thierry Henry (a run of seven in 1999-00)."
The Betfair Bet:
Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -
(Single Recommended bet of the week)
Stake: 24pts
Return: 26.1
P/L: +2.1
ROI: +8.75%
(Overall Column)
Stake: 248pts
Return: 260.1
P/L: +12.1
ROI: +5%
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