Swansea v Hull: Make Piroe the play on Saturday

Swansea fall to late midweek loss

Swansea supremo Russell Martin admitted his side paid the price for not taking their chances as they were beaten 1-0 at the death by league leaders Sheffield United on Tuesday night. Joel Piroe spurned a number of good openings for the Swans in what was an even contest in South Wales but the hosts were emphatically punished deep into stoppage-time.

It was the fifth injury-time goal Swansea have conceded this season and Martin felt the result was harsh. He said, "We didn't start very well, but I was really pleased with our reaction. We went toe-to-toe with the team at the top of the league but we didn't make the most of the opportunities we had. We should score, we don't and we pay the price."

Swansea made just one alteration to the team that started in the win over Queens Park Rangers 10 days earlier, with Jay Fulton replacing Jamie Paterson to shore up the midfield. Olivier Ntcham returned to the matchday squad in place of the injured Liam Cullen, although striker Michael Obafemi remained absent. Joel Latibeaudiere remains out.

Dodgy defending costs Hull

Hull's soft defensive underbelly was exposed again in midweek as Stoke ran out comfortable 3-0 winners at the MKM Stadium, sending the Tigers to a third straight Championship defeat. City were up against it when Lewis Baker's deflected free-kick 25 minutes in to proceedings broke the deadlock, although a home fightback never looked on the cards.

Following a bright start to the new campaign, City have been conceding goals at an alarming rate, shipping 18 in their first nine fixtures of 2022/23 and their defensive frailties were again exposed. Head coach Shota Arveladze professed post-match that Hull's performance simply was not good enough and the Georgian was quick to apologise to supporters.

He said, "I have terrible feelings, of course. It's very hard and difficult. I wasn't expecting this result. We trained well over the weekend. We have to look at that and get better at it, to do our own thing and not wait for something to happen (from the other team) and then react. We're observing in the first 10 or 15 minutes, half an hour, and then it's too late."

The Tigers made two changes from the side beaten by Sheffield United in their last outing with Jean Michael Seri coming in for Ryan Woods, who dropped to the bench, while there was a start for Tyler Smith in place of the injured Benjamin Tetteh. Greg Docherty returned to the fold after missing seven games through injury, and was named on the bench.

Swans unappealling odds-on favourites

Swansea have crossed swords with Hull eight times in league action since 2016/17 but managed just a solitary success in that sequence (W1-D3-L4). However, the Welsh club have been beaten only once in seven home showdowns against the Tigers going back to 2004 (W2-D4-L1) with the draw 3.7511/4 a popular outcome in recent head-to-head encounters.

Swansea 1.8810/11 have returned a positive Expected Goals (xG) supremacy despite returning just W2-D3-L4 in their opening nine outings. Nevertheless, the hosts have tabled just one home victory and boast a 36% win-rate at the Swansea.com Stadium under Russell Martin, a return that makes the Swans unappealing odds-on favourites for Saturday's early start.

Hull 4.407/2 were unbeaten in their first four Championship fixtures this term but the Tigers have since been turned over in four of their following five (leaking twice or more in all five). City are allowing the second-highest xG per-game figure (1.67 xGA) and have picked up two points from their past six road trips (W0-D2-L4) under Shota Arveladze's watch.

Make Piroe the play

Only three of Swansea's nine Championship dates have broken the Over 2.5 Goals 1.8910/11 barrier as at least one side has failed to score on five occasions. Matches involving the Swans are averaging 2.25 Expected Goals (xG), whilst 54% of 28 outings here under Russell Martin have produced a maximum of two strikes with 2.43 goals per-game on average.

Hull's early encounters have proven much more entertaining. The Tigers have delivered Over 2.5 Goals profit five times this term with all bar one of their nine matches featuring a minimum of two strikes - six of those showdowns paid out for Both Teams To Score backers 1.814/5, including three of City's four away days already this season.

But I'm instead going to back Joel Piroe to score at anytime at 2.407/5. The Swansea hitman leads the way for shots attempted in the Championship this season - 3.80 per-game - and has bagged in three of his most recent four appearances. The Dutch forward notched 22 goals in 2021/22 and should relish the opportunity to face this dodgy Hull defence.