Swansea v Cardiff: Back Bluebirds to avoid defeat in South Wales derby

• Swansea difficult to trust

• Cardiff excel against the lesser lights

• Bluebirds backed in the Asian Handicap market

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Swansea v Cardiff
Saturday, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports

Swans boss demands improvement in derby

Swansea 2.0811/10 coach Luke Williams admitted, "we didn't do enough to win the game" after seeing his side slide to a limp 1-0 defeat at Bristol City last Sunday. City's sixth loss in 11 league games under Williams' charge leaves the club only five points above the drop-zone heading into the derby this weekend with the Swans supremo demanding an improvement.

Swansea had 71% of the ball at Ashton Gate yet managed only eight shots without landing a single attempt on-target.

Williams said: "We controlled the first half with the ball but we needed to use the ball to create more openings. In the second half, we switched off at a set-piece and paid the price because we didn't create enough really good openings."

Williams had made three changes to the side that drew with Watford as Joe Allen, Kyle Naughton and Liam Cullen returned to the starting line-up. Jerry Yates, Harry Darling and Jay Fulton dropped to the bench. Jamal Lowe and Ollie Cooper are hoping for a recall after positive contributions off the bench. Swansea are expected to shuffle their pack here.

Bluebirds aim to extend winning streak

Cardiff 4.1031/10 boss Erol Bulut believes the Bluebirds produced their best performance of the season as they came from behind to beat high-flying Ipswich last time out. The capital club looked to have lost when Kieffer Moore netted late in the second half. However, two goals in stoppage-time meant City produced a remarkable, dramatic turnaround victory.

Bulut said: "Maybe it was the best. We have been really prepared. We had one day less recovery, but when we started the game, I never felt we were going to lose it. From the first minute until the end, we could lead, we had chances. All the players were concentrated. Life is like this, you have to believe something. We believed today we were going to win and we did it."

Bulut had made two changes to the side that beat Huddersfield, with Yakou Meite and Manolis Siopis coming in for Joe Ralls and Famara Diedhiou. The Turkish coach must now decide whether to chop-and-change again after overseeing a four-match winning streak that's taken Cardiff to within five points of the Championship play-off positions.

Teams	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	PTS	xGF	xGA	xGD	EXP	FCST
1 Coventry	46	28	11	7	97	45	95	0	0	0
2 Ipswich	46	23	15	8	80	47	84	0	0	0
3 Millwall	48	24	11	11	64	49	83	0	0	0
4 Southampton	48	22	14	10	82	56	80	0	0	0
5 Middlesbrough	49	22	14	10	72	47	80	0	0	0
6 Hull	49	21	10	15	70	66	73	0	0	0
7 Wrexham	46	19	14	13	69	65	71	0	0	0
8 Derby	46	20	9	17	67	59	69	0	0	0
9 Norwich	46	19	8	19	63	56	65	0	0	0
10 Birmingham	46	17	13	16	57	56	64	0	0	0
11 Swansea	46	18	10	18	57	59	64	0	0	0
12 Bristol C	46	17	11	18	59	59	62	0	0	0
13 Sheff Utd	46	18	6	22	66	66	60	0	0	0
14 Preston	46	15	15	16	55	62	60	0	0	0
15 QPR	46	16	10	20	61	73	58	0	0	0
16 Watford	46	14	15	17	53	65	57	0	0	0
17 Stoke	46	15	10	21	51	56	55	0	0	0
18 Portsmouth	46	14	13	19	49	64	55	0	0	0
19 Charlton	46	13	14	19	44	58	53	0	0	0
20 Blackburn	46	13	13	20	42	56	52	0	0	0
21 West Brom	46	13	14	19	48	58	51	0	0	0
22 Oxford	46	11	14	21	45	59	47	0	0	0
23 Leicester	46	12	16	18	58	68	46	0	0	0
24 Sheff Wed	46	2	12	32	29	89	0	0	0	0

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Cardiff appeal as underdogs

Swansea saw their four-game winning run over Cardiff come to an end in the reverse meeting back in September, though the Swans have suffered just a solitary defeat in six when welcoming the Bluebirds to Landore (W5-D0-L1). Nevertheless, the hosts appear fragile 2.0811/10 favourites here and I'm happy to get Cardiff onside this weekend.

Swansea have managed only seven victories in their past 26 league outings (W7-D7-L12) since October's international break, whilst posting just five triumphs in 18 on home soil this season (W5-D5-L8). Williams' outfit have managed a paltry tally of six clean sheets across the whole campaign, striking twice or more in 12 of those 37 second-tier fixtures.

Cardiff's impressive recent run has brought the Bluebirds to within the top-10 and the visitors have tended to produce their best work against the lesser lights. Bulut's boys boast a W15-D4-L6 record when facing sides outside of the top-seven, a sample that includes W7-D1-L3 when on the road, as well as five clean sheets in those 11 away days.

With that in-mind, Cardiff appeal in the Asian Handicap market with a +0.5 start available to support at 1.855/6. The visitors have already clinched top honours in both Severnside derby dates with Bristol City, as well as overcoming Swansea, without conceding a goal in any of those three previous fixtures, highlighting their ability to pick up positive results.

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