Southampton v Leeds: Back 11/2 NTT20 Bet Builder in Saturday's early kick-off

• Farke's side are unbeaten in their last four

• Piroe has four in five Championship games for Leeds

• Leeds have conceded just three first-half shots in last two games

Southampton v Leeds
Saturday, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football

What a difference a month makes. If we wind the clock back to September 1st, unbeaten Southampton had picked up 10 points in four games and sat pretty in fourth, while Leeds only had one win and two draws in what had been a turbulent summer off the pitch with a protracted takeover and many a transfer saga.

As we move into October it's all change, with Saints manager Russell Martin coming under some severe pressure having lost their last four games, with 19 goals conceded so far this season.

Daniel Farke, on the other hand, is the toast of the town in Leeds, who have been inspired by the arrival of Joel Piroe. They're unbeaten in six, have kept four clean sheets in a row and were mightily impressive when dispatching Watford 3-0 at Elland Road last time out.

The two sides are evidence of just how quickly things can change in football, and the home fans will be praying that Saturday's early kick-off will instigate the next cycle of momentum shift, while Leeds will see this as a chance to further demonstrate their promotion credentials.

Leg 1: Leeds to win

It's impossible to ignore the 13/102.30 about an away win here, with Southampton needing to put in a significantly improved display to stop Farke and his team.

Seventeen-year old Archie Gray has been a revelation so far this season and has a huge future, but we caught a glimpse of what Glen Kamara will offer this side in his full debut against Watford. The Ampadu and Kamara midfield partnership is a perfect blend of quality and energy and could well elevate Leeds even further.

Georgino Rutter, much-maligned last season, is revelling in the Championship while Dan James is finally showing the creative quality that had previously been missing in this game. Leeds have often been devastating in transition this season, see Jaidon Anthony's goal last weekend, and should make hay against a Southampton side who are so prone to being caught in possession in dangerous areas.

Leg 2: Joel Piroe to score

If Farke is the architect, Piroe is the talisman in this latest Leeds United revolution.Leeds have been far too reliant on Patrick Bamford for goals in recent seasons, but given the form of Piroe and Rutter it's hard to see how he fits back in if and when he returns to full fitness.

The former Swansea striker has four goals already this season, and is averaging over 3 goals per 90 at 0.5 xG. Even if Rutter plays in a more advanced role, there is no denying that the Dutchman is Leeds' most likely goalscorer and should oblige if Leeds are able to carve through Southampton with similar ease as Sunderland and Leicester in recent weeks.

Leg 3: Leeds to win the first half

In their three wins this season, Leeds have scored four first-half goals and have been ahead at HT in two. The exception was last time out in the 3-0 win over Watford, but that was due to the saves of Daniel Bachman rather than any deficiency in Leeds' attacking play.

They are also showing phenomenal early defensive numbers at the moment and there is little reason to see why Southampton will have much joy here. Watford had just one shot in the first half last weekend which came from near the halfway line from Imran Louza. Hull had just two in the first half in the game prior, with Millwall having six and Sheffied Wednesday three.

These 12 shots conceded in the first halfs amount to a total xG of 0.42. If this game goes by the form book, Leeds should start the game on top and we may not have to wait too long for them to get ahead.