Ali Maxwell from Not The Top 20 is here to preview the early Championship televised fixture on Saturday between Preston and Millwall and he's backing goals and cards in his Bet Builder...
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Lions start life without Rowett
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Both teams stronger in defence that attack
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The teams have averaged 4.45 yellow cards per game
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Alan Browne has four yellow cards in nine league games
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Preston v Millwall
Saturday 12:30
Live on Sky Sports
Saturday's televised lunchtime kick-off in the Championship got more interesting on Wednesday night. Gary Rowett, the league's second longest-serving manager, left Millwall by mutual consent, with both parties suggesting a fresh start was needed.
Millwall missed out on the play-offs on the final day last season in desperate fashion, and this season levels have dropped. Adam Barrett will be in caretaker charge on Saturday.
Heading into September's international break, Preston North End were top of the table. After a couple more wins, they've been brought back down to earth with three straight defeats against Leicester, Ipswich and West Brom, conceding 11 in the process.
This match is a chance for both teams to begin the next chunk of fixtures more positively, but it's hard for me to imagine a match full of goals. Both sides are stronger in defence than attack, with poor underlying xG numbers.
Both play a fairly low tempo, direct style, with an onus on defensive shape. Adam Barrett was Rowett's assistant and it feels unlikely that he will suddenly switch to a gung ho approach.
Millwall's last 51 away games have averaged just 2.16 goals per game. I'm expecting low margin stuff, so the first leg of our Bet Builder is under 2.5 goals at 6/101.60.
I'm not expecting goals, but I am expecting cards. There's going to be a lot of duels, both aerial and on the ground. These are two sides full of strong, tenacious players who like to impose themselves. This season, the teams have averaged 4.45 yellow cards per game.
Referee Matt Donohue has averaged 3.73 yellow cards per game in his refereeing career, and four per game this season, perhaps due to the threshold for yellow cards being lowered. Over 3.5 Cards in the Cards Over/Under market is our second selection at 4/51.80.
Preston's terrier-like midfielder Ryan Ledson is unsurprisingly the favourite in the Player Shown A Card market, but his place in the starting line up is under threat with Ben Whiteman returning to the team.
Alan Browne is Ryan Lowe's captain and sets the tone. Both players have been booked four times in a similar number of minutes, but Browne is a chunkier price to pick up a card. Matt Donohue booked Browne in the last Preston game he officiated, and I'm backing him to do so again at 16/54.20.
Read Saturday Championship Opta Stats: Ten bets for this weekend's games