Opta Stats for Saturday: Nine bets for this weekend's Championship fixtures

Swansea vs Middlesbrough

Managerless Swans to ask questions of Boro's defence

The Opta Stat:

"Middlesbrough are winless in their last three away league games (D1 L2), conceding three goals each time - not since May 2017 in the Premier League have they conceded at least three goals in four successive away league matches"

There is a sharp contrast between Middlesbrough's home form and their performances on the road. At the Riverside, they've conceded an average of just one goal per game, yet on their travels, this rises to 2.2. Their matches on the road have averaged 4.2 goals per game and despite being back in Teesside on Wednesday night, Michael Carrick's side displayed yet more flimsiness at the back. Boro have been creating chances and they should find the back of the net here, but an xGA of 6.7 across their last four games suggests that they are always liable to concede.

Swansea weren't at their best in midweek. Caretaker boss Alan Sheehan admitted his side weren't freeflowing, however, they've notched in five straight and have players who are capable of producing individual standout moments.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS at 5/61.84

Preston vs Watford

Hornets to leave Deepdale with at least a point

The Opta Stats:

"Preston have lost their last two league games at Deepdale, as many league defeats there as in their previous 16 such games (W9 D5)"

"Watford have only lost one of their last four away league games (W2 D1) and could win successive league matches on the road for the first time since November 2022"

Watford should have taken a point from their game against Ipswich in midweek with the Hornets missing a couple of presentable opportunities. Their away form remains a concern, however, they've been playing well enough in recent weeks under Val Ismael to take at least a point here. The visitors have hired a set-piece coach this week, so they are likely to improve their output in this area, however, this may take a few weeks to bear fruit.

Preston won on the road in midweek, yet their form at Deepdale is nothing to write home about. Ryan Lowe's side have won just one of their last six here and they've conceded twice in each of their last four.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Watford Draw No Bet (vs Preston) at 3/41.75

Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR

BTTS in South Yorkshire

The Opta Stat:

"Chris Willock scored in his last away league game for QPR against Preston, not since November 2021 has he scored in successive away league matches in the Football League"

Marti Cifuentes has found a way to get his attacking assets such as Ilias Chair and Chris Willock motivated and the pair have helped to spearhead QPR's recent revival. The R's have managed three consecutive clean sheets, however, they lived dangerously against Hull and still managed to give up 12 shots to ten-man Plymouth.

Sheffield Wednesday's mini-revival was ended by Norwich on Wednesday, however, Bailey Cadamarteri still managed to get on the scoresheet. Danny Ruhl's side are far better on their own patch this season and should be able to find a way past the visitor's much-improved back-line.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back BTTS in Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR at 9/101.90

Plymouth vs Rotherham

Richardson's men to battle in vain

The Opta Stat:

"Rotherham have failed to score in 19 of their away league games since the start of last season, more than any other Championship side"

Plymouth parked the bus on Wednesday night after losing Dan Scarr to an early red card. Steven Schumacher has been criticised at time this season for his tactics, however, he got this one spot on and they managed to take a point from a tricky game. At home, they've been far more front-footed and should attack with gusto here.

Leam Richardson has a tough job on his hands in South Yorkshire. The Millers have averaged fewer than seven shots per game on the roads this season and have looked bereft of confidence on their travels. They looked more organised on Tuesday night, yet they were unable to lay a glove on an organised West Brom outfit. Expect them to be disciplined out of possession, however, a lack of killer instinct is likely to hold them back.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Plymouth to Win and Under 4.5 Goals at 10/111.91

Bristol City vs Sunderland

Points potentially shared at Ashton Gate

The Opta Stat:

"Sunderland are without an away league win in their previous five games (D2 L3), it's their longest run in the Championship since March 2018 (6 games)"

Bristol City fans were left frustrated on Tuesday night as they watched their side downed by Blackburn at Ewood Park. Liam Manning's side actually put up a decent fight and a draw would probably have been a fair result. Whilst not winning games, Manning's side have been keeping it tight with five of their last seven matches being decided by a single goal margin (the remaining two ended all-square).

Sunderland have improved under the caretaker stewardship of Mike Dodds. Under Tony Mowbray, the Black Cats were often chaotic, however, they've looked more controlled and disciplined in the last three matches and they should give a good account of themselves. The Wearsiders are a little short at 11/102.11 given their recent struggles on the road and another close game looks the most likely outcome.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Draw in Bristol City vs Sunderland at 9/52.80

Southampton vs Blackburn

Southampton to triumph at St. Marys

The Opta Stat:

"Southampton are aiming to win five straight home league games for the first time since November 2014 under Ronald Koeman in the Premier League"

Some Southampton fans have bemoaned their side's possession-style of football. The Saints are very controlled in possession under Russell Martin and although it can be a tough watch at times, it has yielded results in recent weeks. Unfortunately, it also means they've dropped several points and currently trail second place Ipswich by 12 points. They've won five of their last six here and should be able to extend that sequence.

Blackburn have been on a good run of form, yet they always give the opposition chances. Former Rovers' striker Adam Armstrong could be one of the beneficiaries. The visitors aren't likely to get blown away here.

The Betfair Bet

• Back Southampton to Win and Over 1.5 Goals at 5/61.84

Millwall vs Huddersfield

Terriers to slip to another disappointing defeat

The Opta Stat:

"Millwall are without a win at home in their last six league games (D2 L4), while their six league defeats at the Den in 2023-24 so far is as many as they suffered across 2022-23 in the Championship"

Here's where we go against the grain. Millwall have been poor at home this season, yet both of their victories at the Den have come against sides currently occupying the bottom six. Joe Edward's side haven't been picking up the results lately, but they did relatively well against Leicester in midweek and with Kevin Nisbet and Tom Bradshaw both finding the net recently, they have strikers who can make a big difference.

Huddersfield's Darren Moore would love the luxury of accurate frontmen. The Terriers top goalscorer is defender Michal Helik (5), although Delano Burgzorg isn't far behind )(4). The visitors give up too many chances on the road and may struggle in Bermondsey.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Millwall to Win and Under 4.5 Goals at 11/102.11

Leeds vs Coventry

Entertaining spectacle at Elland Road

The Opta Stat:

"Leeds have won their last seven league games at Elland Road; they last enjoyed a longer such run in the top two tiers of English football in March 1991 (8 games)"

Leeds threw in their token every-third-match below-par performance on Tuesday night as they suffered a narrow defeat to Sunderland at the SOL. They'll be pleased to back at home, where they have been exceptionally strong this season. The Whites have won each of their last seven here, although they've failed to keep a clean sheet in five of them.

Coventry have hit form and starting climbing the table in recent weeks. The Sky Blues may have left it too late, although they may be looking to make a run for the top six. Haji Wright has slowly found his feet in recent weeks and the visitors undoubtedly offer a threat going forward.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back BTTS in Leeds vs Coventry at 4/51.80

Hull vs Cardiff

Bluebirds to frustrate Tigers

The Opta Stat:

"Cardiff have failed to score in four of their last six away league matches (W2 D1 L3), doing so in their last such game against Southampton (2-0 defeat)"

Hull produced an excellent second half display to edge past Middlesbrough on Wednesday night. Liam Rosenior's men are strong at home, although they have drawn too many games in Humberside.

Cardiff slipped to a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Birmingham in midweek. The Bluebirds are struggling for firepower and have netted just five times across their last seven outings. They may not contribute much, but they'll look to keep it tight.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Hull to Win or Draw and Under 2.5 Goals at 11/102.11